Title: A model for adoption of successive generations of a high technology product

Authors: Amit Kumar Bardhan, Udayan Chanda

Addresses: Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, South Campus, Benito Juarez Road, New Delhi 110021, India. ' Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, North Campus, New Delhi 110007, India

Abstract: Modelling the new product sales growth and forecasting future sales has been an important area of research in Marketing Science. Models have been proposed to map the consumer buying behaviour against explanatory variables such as price, promotional effort, quality, time, etc. In comparison, high technology products have received less attention. These products usually have many generations, each succeeding generation being an improvement over the previous one. This paper discusses some well-known models in this area and also proposes a new one. The new model uses the relationship between the repeat purchasers and the new purchasers in the overall diffusion of a new technology over multiple generations, by separately identifying the two types of adopters. This model has been validated on sales-data and has also been compared to an established model.

Keywords: innovation diffusion; new product sales growth; technology substitution; technology marketing; high technology products; high tech products; forecasting; new technology adoption.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTMKT.2007.011585

International Journal of Technology Marketing, 2007 Vol.2 No.1, pp.53 - 64

Published online: 04 Dec 2006 *

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