Title: Evolution and container traffic prediction of Yangtze River Delta multi-port system (2001-2017)

Authors: Hongxiang Feng; Manel Grifoll; Pengjun Zheng; Agustí Martin-Mallofre; Frank Murphy; Song Li

Addresses: Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315832, China; Centre for Collaborative Innovation on Port Trading Cooperation and Development (Collaborative Innovation of Port Economics), Ningbo 315832, China; National Traffic Management Engineering & Technology Research Centre Ningbo University Sub-centre, Ningbo 315832, China; Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University Road #2, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province 211189, China ' Barcelona School of Nautical Studies, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya – BarcelonaTech, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; School of Civil Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya – BarcelonaTech, 08003 Barcelona, Spain ' Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315832, China ' Barcelona School of Nautical Studies, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya – BarcelonaTech, 08003 Barcelona, Spain ' Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315832, China ' Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315832, China

Abstract: This contribution investigates the latest concentration tendency of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) multi-port system with concentration-ratio, Herfindahl-Hirschman-Index and shift-share-analysis. Results show that Zhejiang is the major winner; Shanghai is losing its oligopoly since 2012; Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu are reaching tripartite equilibrium. Then, ARIMA, linear regression and GM (1, 1) are used to forecast container throughput of Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and YRD. By mean absolute percent error (MAPE), all models have good or reasonable performance, ARIMA performs best with MAPE of 2.37%, 2.41% and 6.54% when time series seem linear, however does not has excellent performance (MAPE is 14.26%) when non-linear. Finally, we use the indirect and direct method to forecast; MAPE decreases to 3.85% using ARIMA, which supports the out-performance of indirect forecast. The combination of concentration index analysis and forecasting methods has allowed to gain insight in the evolution and prospects of YRD container multi-port system.

Keywords: concentration; ARIMA; grey system; linear regression; indirect forecast.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSTL.2021.112912

International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, 2021 Vol.13 No.1/2, pp.44 - 69

Received: 30 Jul 2018
Accepted: 16 Jul 2019
Published online: 09 Feb 2021 *

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