Validity of foresight derived from the evaluation of past activities in Japan
by Yoshiko Yokoo; Kumi Okuwada
International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy (IJFIP), Vol. 8, No. 4, 2012

Abstract: This study examines whether foresight exercises using the Delphi technique indicate future directions from a long-term standpoint, based on the assessment of past Delphi surveys in Japan. It discusses the efficacy and limitations of Delphi surveys by comparing the future perspectives made at the time of the surveys with the actual state. The result shows that Delphi surveys have significance in giving ideas for the directions of technological development for society in the distant future, though their effectiveness differs according to the characteristics of technological fields. Balanced emphasis on major/minor opinions and opportunities for consensus building towards the desired future among related persons should be discussed to improve the efficacy of the survey.

Online publication date: Fri, 21-Nov-2014

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