Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in developing surrogate model of flood control channel design in an urban area Online publication date: Wed, 01-Jun-2022
by Masoume Behrouz; Saeed Alimohammadi
International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology (IJHST), Vol. 13, No. 4, 2022
Abstract: The main purpose of uncertainty analysis is deriving the model output statistical properties and/or its cumulative distribution function (CDF). In this paper, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a flood control design problem have been implemented in an urban area using Monte Carlo simulation via Latin hypercube sampling method as well as response surface methodology (RSM) for global sensitivity analysis (GSA). Probability theory along with evidence theory which is a more modern theory especially for epistemic uncertainty analysis has been used here. Several results have been achieved after uncertainty propagation such as the model output CDFs and quantiles. Also, a GSA has been implemented and sensitive parameters determined. Then using RSM, a regression model has been defined as surrogate of the main model. The training and testing of the surrogate model reveals its efficiency that means it's accurate enough for further analysis without any need to the main model.
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