Research on precipitation forecasting method in northwest China based on multi-model ensemble Online publication date: Wed, 11-May-2022
by Xinwei Liu; Dong Wei; Rong Li; Yicheng Wang; Na Liu; Deshuai Li
International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW), Vol. 27, No. 1, 2022
Abstract: As a key meteorological element in weather forecasts, precipitation forecast has attracted much attention in many application fields. Due to the limited accuracy of forecast methods, the effect of quantitative precipitation forecast still needs to be optimised. Based on the optimal percentile method, this study established a forecasting method by multi-model for graded precipitation fitting Northwest China. Its forecast threat score (TS) of every 3 h/24 h precipitation were higher than each single model. Meanwhile, its forecast was closer to the actual situation in terms of rainfall area and grade, especially displaying an obvious improvement in light rain and rainstorm forecast. By analysing the selection of the optimal percentile, it was found that this method adopted a low percentile value in light rain forecasts, and this value grew larger with the increase of precipitation grade, which helped to improve the accuracy and stability of the precipitation forecast.
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