International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management (17 papers in press)
Risk levelling: an organised risk management approach
by Shahid Rasheed, Faiza Yaqub, ChangFeng Wang, Suhail Memon, Bruno Lucena
Abstract: Macro environments occupy ever more significance in the growing business worlds. Whereas industrial enterprises assume greater controls in managing their internal environs, the evident responsibility of governments is to regulate the risks surrounding business, to optimise the external environments, and to deliver conditions that are conducive to business. In such a context, this paper presents a specialised approach risk levelling that embraces a focused risk management concept as well as an explicit risk management methodology. Risk levelling accentuates organised and efficient consumption of available resources to achieve balanced risk postures in the business environment. The ultimate intentions of risk levelling are not only to cut the risks to business acceptability limits but also to ensure that mutual risk parities are conserved. Such intent is pursued through an organised procedure that employs a mix of analysis tools and philosophies, including the AHP and the ALARP. By settling the contextual risks to business acceptability bounds, risk levelling aims to facilitate the regimes in regulating the macro business environments for the wellbeing of business.
Keywords: risk management; macro business environment; risk levelling; organised approach.
Risk management in small and micro construction firms undertaking repairs and modernisation of residential houses: a case study from India
by Milind Phadtare, Anand Gosavi, Tapash Kumar Ganguli
Abstract: This paper identifies risk factors and suggests their mitigation in small and micro construction firms undertaking repairs and modernisation projects in residential houses. It uses a case study approach with a combination of work breakdown structure and fault tree analysis to identify risk factors in repairs and modernisation projects. Fifty two risk factors have been identified. Risk factors such as damage to household goods during shifting, injury to the labourers during shifting household goods, damage to household goods during packing, damage to household goods during unpacking and accidents during shifting of household goods have been found typical for small to micro construction firms involved in repairs and modernisation of residential houses. The suggested risk treatment reflects the lite version of project management and is validated by discussing with construction professionals and owners of small and micro construction firms. Risk retention, risk sharing and risk prevention are recommended for treatment of risks. This study is qualitative in nature and its scope is limited to Indian context only.
Keywords: small firms; micro firms; repairs; modernisation; residential; construction; risk; India.
An agent-based model of rational optimism
by Pedro J. Gutierrez, Carlos Rodriguez-Palmero
Abstract: We prove that, in standard insurance markets, rational agents have an incentive to choose as subjective probabilities those incurring in an optimistic bias, since they imply real and objective net gains. Our agent-based model of insurance markets thus clarifies how rational optimism naturally appears and persists in insurance markets, opening up the possibility to explain the optimism bias observed in other environments on the basis of the theory of salient perturbations. Our findings are consistent with the empirical evidence, showing a systematic and coherent moderate optimistic bias of agents in the assessment of probabilities.
Keywords: agent-based stochastic model; dynamical optimisation in economics; general equilibrium model; Arrow-Debreu securities; subjective probabilities; rationality; optimism bias; game theory.
Economic impacts of avian influenza disease control strategies in USA due to Texas outbreaks
by Jianhong Mu, Bruce McCarl
Abstract: We compared the economic consequences of imposing a quarantine with and without adding vaccination in controlling Avian Influenza (AI) outbreaks. We evaluated the benefits of using a partial equilibrium, the US agricultural sector model, and found that the strategies were not significantly different in their benefits if consumer demand was not reduced by concerns over the outbreak. However, we did find impacts differed when the outbreak was associated with a consumer demand reduction. Specifically, under a scenario where consumers reduced demand by 20%, the quarantine with vaccination strategy was found to dominate the quarantine-only strategy. In contrast, we found the quarantine-only strategy was relatively more cost-effective when there was no demand reduction.
Keywords: avian influenza; vaccination; quarantine; demand reduction; economic evaluation.
Integrated management systems: linking risk management and management control systems
by Thomas Berger, Werner Gleissner
Abstract: The success of a company basically depends on the quality of entrepreneurial decisions taken by the board of directors or the management in general, which means that the systems and tools for preparing such decisions are critical success factors for the quality of decision itself. A companys management systems and especially its procedures for preparing decisions must be in a position to enable the decision makers to weigh possible returns against the associated risks. This is necessary to predict the possible implications of a decision not only on the companys future rating grade but also on the companys value as a measure of success. When a decision is being prepared, their effects on enterprise value and rating grade must be made transparent as part of the decision-making. We argue that this is done best by means of integrated management systems which, in particular, link management control and risk management.
Keywords: risk management; management control system; performance management system; valuation; rating.
Risk assessment in the industrial radiography practice in India using a probabilistic approach
by Alok Pandey, Prashaunt S. Rawat, Avinash U. Sonawane
Abstract: Industrial gamma radiography uses appropriate radioisotopes housed in radiography devices that provide shielding from the ionising radiations, for imaging of the weld joints and castings. The radiography devices are operated manually by rotating the control unit to project the gamma source outside the shielding, in a projection sheath. Deviation from the standard operating procedures or malfunctioning of the gamma radiography equipment may result in potential exposure to occupational workers. Probabilistic safety assessment has been carried out to calculate the probabilities of potential exposure to occupational workers in industrial gamma radiography practice in India. Fault trees were designed for failure assessment of area monitoring instruments, the functionality of which is crucial to ensure safe industrial gamma radiography operations. Operational procedures leading to the potential exposure scenarios have been sequenced in the event tree. The probability of most severe potential exposure category is calculated as 3.506E-04 for open field radiography operations and slightly lower value of 1.293E-4 for enclosed radiography operations. Assessment results identify the contributory factors to potential exposure, with their relative contributions. Results indicate that the probability of potential exposure can be reduced by adopting safe work practice by operators and responsible attitude of radiological safety officers towards trainees and untrained persons.
Keywords: potential exposure; industrial gamma radiography; probabilistic safety assessment; Delphi survey; occupational exposure; radiation protection.
Scenario-based risk assessment model for infectious medical waste collection and transportation system
by Ajay Tembhurkar, Radhika Deshpande
Abstract: It is preeminent to develop a safe, secure and sustainable collection and transportation system for Infectious Medical Waste (IMW). Risk assessment of IMW Collection and Transportation (IMWCT) system is necessary to recognise threats, hazards and vulnerabilities in the area of IMWCT. Planned and optimised routes considering the risk aspect would provide secure collection and transportation for IMWCT. Few endeavours are found towards appraisal of hazards during collection and transportation of IMW, particularly in India. The present paper initiates a scenario-based risk assessment approach along with optimisation of collection and transportation routes for IMW.
Keywords: risk assessment; infectious medical waste; multi-objective ant colony system; collection and transportation system; sustainable transportation; standard risk matrix.
Developing an enterprise risk Management model: the case of the Palestinian insurance sector
by Muthaffar Mansour, Ayham Jaaron
Abstract: The insurance sector, being one of the most prosperous sectors in developing countries, has been immersed in continuous changes to adapt to the new global economic environments and business safety requirements. However, there seems to be scarcity in the current literature of empirical studies to investigate the prerequisites of a healthy risk management model for insurance organisations in developing countries. This paper is an attempt to develop a risk management model for insurance organisations operating in the context of the developing country of Palestine. An exploratory qualitative study using semi-structured interviews, archival documents, and observations were adopted in this research inquiry. Data were analysed using the thematic analysis approach. Although data analysis shows that Palestinian insurance organisations managerial practices are relatively in regulatory compliance with risk management practices, the results highlight the necessity of providing a supportive organisational culture and capacity building functions to provide highly qualified insurance professionals as a cornerstone for insurance companies competitiveness in developing countries. The developed managerial model is important as it identifies the determinants of a successful enterprise risk management realisation that will help the insurance companies in developing countries context to improve their strengths and maintain a sustainable growth.
Keywords: insurance sector; enterprise risk management; model development; developing countries; qualitative study; risk management; Palestine.
An approach to identify, prioritise and provide regulatory follow-up actions for new or emerging risks of chemicals for workers, consumers and the environment
by Lya Soeteman-Hernández, Joost Bakker, Fleur Van Broekhuizen, Nicole Palmen, Yuri Bruinen De Bruin, Myrna Kooi, Dick Sijm, Theo Traas
Abstract: This paper illustrates a comprehensive and systematic approach for the identification of new or emerging risks of chemicals (NERCs) for workers, consumers and the environment. The methodology is composed of three steps: 1) signal identification, 2) signal evaluation and prioritisation, and when necessary 3) follow-up actions for further risk management measures when NERCs have been identified. The process of identifying NERCs varies slightly for each protection target. In the case of workers, the identification process of a NERC is usually triggered by an observed adverse health effect in workers and the likelihood of a causal relationship with exposure to chemicals at the work place. In the case of consumers, the identification of a NERC is based on the collection (worldwide) of information on an adverse human health effect caused by exposure to consumer products, which might eventually lead to the identification of the chemical(s) causing the adverse effect. For the environment, monitoring data for the environment provide evidence for establishing NERCs. During signal identification, new information with regard to adverse effects induced by the potential NERC is gathered using various sources (e.g. scientific literature, news sites, websites, electronic databases, stakeholder networks). Based on this information, the causality between chemical exposure and the adverse effect is evaluated and prioritised in national and international networks. Here, expert groups play a vital role in the identification of NERCs. Finally, for those NERCs where causality with an adverse effect is established, an analysis of possible appropriate regulatory risk management options is made. Such measures in Europe may include the derivation of an occupational safety limit, restricting its use or proposing harmonised classification and labelling. With this approach, NERCs can be efficiently identified with timely recommendations of follow-up steps, to reduce or eliminate the risk of the substance. Further work is needed to improve amplification of signals for consumers and between consumers, workers and the environment.
Keywords: exposure; prioritisation; evaluation; expert group; NERCs; new risks; emerging risks; chemicals; workers; consumers; environment.
Exploring risk management strategies in global business environments
by Laurie Turnbull, Abubaker Haddud
Abstract: The purpose of this research was to determine if global organisations adopt formal risk management strategies to minimise risks and liabilities associated with international trade, and if a relationship exists between adopting a risk management strategy, and the number of countries that global organisations do business with. It is crucial for global organisations to improve competitive advantages by adopting risk management strategies that minimise misunderstandings with customers and suppliers, and awareness for logistics service providers that opportunities may exist to strengthen customer relationships by providing knowledge management support in these areas. Through the use of a 22-question online survey, data was collected from 108 logistics and purchasing professionals with more than 2 years experience as decision-makers in global organisations. The results of this research identified that organisations with a formal risk management strategy are, more often, dealing with trading partners in one to five countries, and more than 20 countries. Based on the results from this research, it is recommended that organisations develop a formal risk management strategy that includes contracts of sale, appropriate use of Incoterms for containerised shipments, application of cargo insurance and selection of the governing body of law to minimise risks and liabilities in international trade. It is also recommended that organisations designate an employee responsible for risk management, and use the Chamber of Commerce as a resource for knowledge management.
Keywords: risk management; competitive advantage; global business environment; contract of sale; strategy.
Special Issue on: Management of Safety in Socio-Economic Systems
Logical and probabilistic analysis of the reliability of the metallurgical complex electric supply
by Vadim Alexeev
Abstract: This paper deals with the problem of choosing a more preferable electric supply scheme of the metallurgical complex from the reliability problem of view. The algorithm of solving this problem using the logical probabilistic approach is presented. The structural, logical and probabilistic models of the systems reliability have been developed for three power supply connection options. Computational studies have been conducted, the contributions of the elements to the reliability of the system have been determined.
Keywords: reliability; logical probabilistic approach; structural model; logical model; probabilistic model; analysis of contributions.
Analysis of approaches to modelling of attitude to risk in normative decision making methods
by Oleg Uzhga-Rebrov, Ekaterina Karaseva
Abstract: There are many methods to make decisions under risk. They can be divided into two large classes: normative (or prescriptive) methods and descriptive methods. Normative methods appoint how individuals have to make optimal decisions based on certain decisive rules (selection criteria). Descriptive methods use empirical evidence about how individuals make optimal decisions in reality. There are a number of normative methods to make decisions under risk, which we mention in this paper as direct methods. The main feature of all direct methods is using information about criterion estimations of the outcomes of alternative decisions and the probabilities of their realisations only. Another popular tool to make decisions under risk is expected utility theory. In accordance with this theory, the utility function is constructed with the use of a set of criterion estimations of the outcomes of alternative decisions and, based on this function, criterion estimations of outcomes are transformed into estimations of utilities. Further relevant operations are performed in spaces of estimations of utilities and probabilities of outcomes. The attitude to risk of a decision-making person plays the main role in decision making under risk. Therefore, attitudes to risk have to be effectively modelled and considered in the decision-making procedure. In this paper, we consider and analyse approaches to the modelling of attitude to risk by the use of various normative methods of decision making under risk.
Keywords: risk; risk perception; risk attitude; risk aversion; risk-seeking; risk neutrality; decision making direct methods; utility; expected utility theory.
Mathematics for management of socio-economic system safety
by Ekaterina Karaseva
Abstract: In this paper, we are considering the mathematics that is useful for economists to manage socio-economic systems safety. Logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models, new mathematics, complex calculations and specialised software are considered. The concepts of invalidity in economics and top-economics are presented. New Boolean events-propositions and LP risk models are described. Techniques for the synthesis of casual event probability by one or several experts are stated. Specialised software Arbiter and Expa are described.
Keywords: risk; economics; management; safety; logics; probability; socio-economic system; invalidity; estimation; analysis; model.
Hybrid logical and probabilistic models for management of socioeconomic safety
by Eugene Solozhentsev, Vasily Karasev
Abstract: Hybrid logical and probabilistic (LP) models and software based on Top-Economics are presented. Hybrid LP risk models contain following subjects in problem decision: government, legislative authorities, business, scientists, public opinion and objects (tasks), which are the sense of the problem. Statements of Top-Economics, its features and advantages are stated. Concept 'invalidity' in the economics is developed by analogy with the reliability and safety in the engineering. New Boolean events-propositions and new LP risk models for economic safety management are described.
Keywords: hybrid risk LP model; socio-economic problems; corruption; drug addiction; innovation system; Top-Economics; invalidity.
Reputation aspects in investment decision making: contribution to corporate security
by Maria Bakumenko, Anatoliy Sigal
Abstract: This article deals with a substantial threat to corporate security a decline in corporate reputation. Corporate reputation is regarded as the most important intangible asset of corporations. Investment project implementation may greatly affect corporate reputation, both positively and negatively. Therefore, investment decision making requires consideration of how project implementation affects corporate reputation and application of ethics and social responsibility. We suggest an index to consider the impact of investment project implementation on corporate reputation at the pre-investment phase the Reputation Improvement Index. To evaluate weight numbers, which are part of the Reputation Improvement Index, the analytic hierarchy process is recommended. Also, we propose a model to evaluate weight numbers, based on solution of a respective matrix game, and give a case study. We conclude that the Reputation Improvement Index, along with traditional methods of investment decision making and risk consideration, lowers corporate threats at present and in the long term.
Keywords: corporate security; corporate reputation; investment project; investment decision making; corporate ethics; corporate social responsibility; model; Reputation Improvement Index; risk; matrix game.
Quantitative examples of safety assessment using logical-probabilistic methods
by Igor Ryabinin
Abstract: The article presents examples of solving the tasks of the analysis of the safety of complex technical systems by using logical-probabilistic methods (LPM). LPM are characterised by sufficient visualisation and simplicity of formalisation of the hazardous state of the object in the form of the shortest paths of the hazardous state or hazardous state scenario. Parametric representation of logical functions (Boolean sum and products of initiating events and initiating conditions) is carried out using the methods of orthogonalisation. Determination of individual and total contribution of events in the probability of realisation of a dangerous condition can allow one to plan the activities to ensure the safety state of the object. In this article, examples are solved with the use of ARBITR software.
Keywords: dangerous state; the shortest path of the dangerous state; an initiating event; an initiating condition; risk assessment; functional integrity schemes.
Top-economics. Management of socioeconomic safety
by Eugene Solozhentsev
Abstract: This paper suggests and develops a new scientific discipline 'Top-economics', and introduces invalidity in economy by analogy with failure in reliability in engineering. We adduce definitions of top-economics and invalidity in economics. We describe advantages and features of top-economics. The paper examines the components of top-economics: methods, models, technologies, problems, objects and special software. New types of Boolean events-propositions are introduced, and new types of logical and probabilistic risk models for management of the socioeconomic safety of social and economic systems are proposed. The synthesis method of event probabilities in logical and probabilistic risk models is discussed. An example of managing socioeconomic safety in Russia is provided. It illustrates the methods of risk analysis and management, as well as the management of the economic war with sanctions.
Keywords: top-economics; management; socioeconomic safety; events-propositions; logic; probability; hybrid; conceptual; indicative; invalidity risk model; social and economic systems.