International Journal of Management and Decision Making (9 papers in press)
- Sharing Planned Factory Shutdown Information in Supply Chain Systems: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach
by Ghada Deghedi, Yasser Ibrahim
Abstract: Reverse Information Sharing (RIS) has recently received attention as an essential complementary coordination mechanism to the typical downstream IS in Supply Chain (SC) systems. This paper comprehensively discusses the behaviour of a SC system under the condition of planned factory shutdown. The significance of sharing shutdown information for the whole SC and each of its actors is investigated under different Inventory to Backorder Cost Ratios (I/B-CRs) and various production capacities. A modified beer game that allows factory shutdown is represented as a four-stage serial SC. A deterministic market demand, with demand IS in place, is assumed. An agent based model is developed for simulating different scenarios. The results demonstrate that RIS prevents the accumulation of backorder and reduces the overall SC cost by almost 50%. The results, nevertheless, show that the significance of RIS is relative to the I/B-CR and production capacity.
Keywords: Supply Chain Management (SCM); Beer Game; Reverse Information Sharing; Agent-Based Modelling (ABM)
- Calculating the Total Value of Supplier Innovation
by Stefan Winter, Rainer Lasch, Jatinder Gupta
Abstract: Supplier innovation can contribute to a companys success, not only through cost savings, but also through revenue improvements by means of a higher chargeable price or the attraction of more customers. Although the demonstration of the measurable benefits (cost and revenue effects) from supplier innovation has been suggested in the literature, no approach to determine the total value of a supplier innovation is available. For this purpose, total cost approaches and price setting approaches were examined to design the evaluation components within our proposed total value of suppler innovation approach. We demonstrate how cost effects can be identified by total cost analysis and revenue effects by means of a conjoint analysis and a choice simulator. The developed approach and its description serve as a practical procedure to assess the monetary profitability of supplier innovation and support managers in their decision making efforts. A case example about a smartphone manufacturer demonstrates the applicability of our proposed total value of suppler innovation approach.
Keywords: supplier innovation; evaluation; assessment; total cost analysis; conjoint analysis; decision making
- The Influence of Anticipatory Emotions, Risk Perceptions, and Managerial Experience on Escalation of Commitment Decisions
by Brandon Soltwisch
Abstract: Escalation of commitment refers to the tendency of decision makers to continue with failing courses of action (Staw, 1981). Research has identified numerous factors that contribute to escalation, however, there have been relatively few studies exploring ways to reduce this costly mistake. This study investigates the role of anticipatory emotions, risk perceptions, and managerial experience in reducing ones tendency to escalate commitments. Results suggest that anticipatory emotions and managerial experience play a significant role in reducing this decision making error. The findings of this study reveal several important practical and theoretical contributions to the field.
Keywords: escalation of commitment; decision making; anticipatory emotions; risk perceptions; managerial experience; strategic decisions; decision making bias; emotions
- Towards A Better Understanding of Strategic Planning In Service Versus Manufacturing Firms
by Trevor Smith, William Lawrence
Abstract: The extant literature is void of a scientific and robust explanation on differences between strategic planning effectiveness in service and manufacturing firms. And while there is overwhelming evidence to underscore the importance of strategic planning to organizational performance in service firms; there is little or no understanding of the impact of strategic planning in manufacturing; and what aspects of planning will be more impactful on performance outcomes in service contrasted with manufacturing firms. This study has addressed this gap; and presented a mathematical model that seeks to determine differences between strategic planning effectiveness in service and manufacturing firms. In addition, both composite and decomposed views of strategic planning, modelled through linear regressions, were used to assess the impact of strategic planning on organizational performance. The findings from the composite models are that there are no meaningful differences in strategic planning effectiveness in service and manufacturing firms; and that strategic planning was equally important in predicting performance outcomes in both service and manufacturing. However, analysis of decomposed view revealed that good assessment of internal and external environments, setting clearly defined goals and identifying and framing strategic issues were significant drivers of organizational performance in service firms; while in manufacturing, identifying and framing strategic issues were the major contributors to bottom-line. Implications for management, limitations and opportunities for further research are also discussed.
Keywords: Strategic Planning; Performance; Manufacturing; Services
- A Technology Management Strategy Selection Method for Firms in Joint Venture Partnerships
by Dilupa Nakandala, Henry Lau
Abstract: This paper demonstrates how a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process approach can be used to determine technology management strategies for firms in partnerships that result in their sustained technological development. Firms with resource constraints tend to form venture partnerships with technologically advanced partners for indirect strategic benefits. In such partnerships, technology management strategies of host firms need to be maneuvered strategically as they build local capabilities. Selection of technology management strategy is generally based on subjective judgments that use fuzzy data analysed under multiple decision criteria. Considering the degree of technological contribution from the source firm, technological competency of the host firm, and dominance of the partners as well as the clarity of roles between partners as decision factors, this paper demonstrates how to determine the optimal technology management strategy. The different technological stages of a real firm are analysed in order to illustrate the application of the proposed approach.
Keywords: Technology management strategies; technology transfer; technological capabilities; foreign direct investment; joint ventures; fuzzy expert systems; analytic hierarchy process
Special Issue on: "Applications of AHP/ANP in Government Policy and Decision Making,"
- Government Policy and Health Care management: proposal of a shared decision-making model
by Antonella Petrillo, Fabio De Felice, Carmela Vanzanella, Filippo Crispino, Jennifer Martin, Stephen Morgan, Michael Craven, Leandro Pecchia
Abstract: As a consequence of the current economic crisis many changes have been introduced to health systems on national levels to reduce expenditure and to introduce more cost-effective methods. Then recent developments in medical technology have led to a shift in the traditional framework of physician-patient responsibility in health care decision making. In this context, the health community urges, in any case, decision makers to ensure that all changes introduced are in accordance with Health System Values. This paper presents a new decision making platform, as a tool to facilitate shared decision making, to improve the quality and transparency of tactical and strategic decisions. This new application, based on analytic quantitative method, is a component of a wider distribute web system under development, which aims to inform the new effective health technologies supporting designers in the user need elicitation and early stage health technology assessments. A case study aiming to elicit the user needs affecting the decision of whether to adopt a new magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is also presented.
Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, government policy, magnetic resonance imaging, user need elicitation, decision making
- ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS AS A RANKING TOOL FOR DECISION MAKING UNITS
by Josef Jablonsky
Abstract: Efficiency and performance evaluation is an important task in governmental decision making. The paper aims in application of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for efficiency analysis of a set of decision making units (DMUs). Conventional tool for analysis of efficiency of DMUs is data envelopment analysis (DEA). DEA models allow splitting the set of DMUs into efficient and inefficient. The inefficient ones can be ranked according to their efficiency scores but the efficient units cannot be ranked easily as their have identical maximal efficiency score. Various models have been proposed for ranking of efficient units in DEA. The aim of the paper is to discuss the possibility of application of AHP models for ranking of efficient or entire set of DMUs. The proposed approach is illustrated on performance evaluation of 19 Czech economic faculties. The results given by the AHP ration model are compared to those given by conventional approaches.
Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, data envelopment analysis, efficiency, ranking, higher education
- Measuring economic sustainability of energy use: an ANP-based evaluation of some European Union countries and Turkey
by Aylin Cigdem Kone, Monica Garcia-Melon, Pablo Aragonés-Beltrán, Tayfun Buke
Abstract: This paper presents a new methodology for evaluating the economic sustainability of countries energy systems. The aim of the work is to improve the support tools for policy makers as the scale and complexity of the global energy industry demands a country-by-country approach to managing change. The proposed participatory Analytic Network Process model was applied to the five largest energy consumers in the European Union, namely France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom plus Turkey -a candidate for the European Union. The criteria used for the evaluations were selected from the economic dimension of the Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development. Results show that the best performer country is the United Kingdom followed by France, Turkey, Germany, Spain and Italy. Finally we want to highlight that the methodology is able to grant participated decisions through a multi-expert traceable and transparent assessment process.
Keywords: sustainable energy development; economic sustainability; European Union; Turkey; energy systems; energy indicators; energy security; end-use patterns; energy policy evaluation; analytic network process; multi-criteria decision analysis; multi-expert decision analysis.
- USING DIFFERENT PAIR-WISE COMPARISON SCALES FOR DEVELOPING INDUSTRIAL STRATEGIES
by Vitalii Tsyganok, Sergii Kadenko, Oleg Andriichuk
Abstract: In this paper we suggest a new approach to conducting individual pair-wise comparisons during individual and group multi-criteria decision-making (including AHP/ANP-based decisions). Under this approach every expert is given an opportunity to use the most convenient scale for every single pair-wise comparison. By convenient scale we mean the scale, in which the degree of detail (number of points/grades) most adequately reflects this experts competence in the issue under consideration,. All scales, in which expert judgments were provided, are assigned respective weights. After that all expert estimates (judgments) are brought to a unified scale. Then expert judgments, brought to the unified scale, are checked for consistency and aggregated. A respective instrument for pair-wise comparison conduction has been developed, and an experiment has been organized. The experiment statistically proved that usage of the suggested approach increased the adequacy of expert examination results. Particularly, usage of the suggested approach results in an increase of degree of correspondence between estimates, input by an expert, and his (her) own notions on examination objects. The suggested approach can and should be used as a tool for building strategies in different industries. The approach is especially relevant for industries, representing weakly structured domains, where one cannot rely only on quantitative data and tangible criteria. As an example of the approachs practical usage we consider its application for evaluation of space projects. The research was conducted in 2013 and targeted at prioritization of different space industry aspects, and building effective development strategy for Ukrainian space industry.
Keywords: group decision making; decision support system; expert judgments; pair-wise comparisons; different scales; industrial strategy; project evaluation