International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy (26 papers in press)
FISHBONE DIAGRAM FOR TECHNOLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND FORESIGHT
by Mario Coccia
Abstract: Fishbone diagram is a graphical technique to show the several causes of a specific event. Fishbone diagram is applied here as a novel graphical representation to identify, explore and analyse the source and evolution of innovation and especially General Purpose Technologies (GPTs). Firstly, the study here shows the driving forces of GPTs, such as: higher democratization, high investment in R&D, etc. Secondly, these drivers of GPTs and in gen-eral of new technology are represented with fishbone diagram for the technological analysis. Some examples are given by applying the Fishbone diagram to specific GPTs, such as steam engine and Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). Overall, then, fishbone diagram seems to be an appropriate and general technique of graphical representation for the technological analysis and foresight of path-breaking innovation in society.
Keywords: Fishbone Diagram; General Purpose Technology; Technological Foresight; Sources of Innovation; Technological Evolution; New Technology; Technological Analysis.
The Soviet Nationalities Policies and their contribution to conflicts: Law, and Legacies and Ideology
by Benedikt Harzl
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the Soviet nationalities policies and its legal instruments on the territorial conflicts along the ethno-federal lines of the former USSR. By looking at selected examples in the South Caucasus, this work considers, in particular, how the Soviet ideology of ethnic federalism fuelled conflicts within the federal units of the USSR. It is argued that the installation of proto-elements of statehood and the promotion of national consciousness within the USSR ï¿½ which were at the core of Soviet nationality policies ï¿½ created the structural conditions, which resulted in the outbreak of conflicts across the USSR after 1989. The paper contemplates, further, that the concept of ethnic federalism remains the most haunting legacy of the Soviet ethnopolitics: Rather than vanishing with the demise of the USSR, it continues to shape political decision-making in the South Caucasus.
Keywords: Abkhazia; autonomy; ethnopolitics; ethnoterritoriality; federalism; law; Nagorno-Karabakh; nationalism; South Caucasus; Soviet Union; Transnistria
The Divided Venezuela
by Agnes Haidacher, Mariana Lourdes Olvera Colin, Nikolina Jankovic
Abstract: Venezuela is one of the biggest oil producers in the world. This seems, however, to have brought Venezuela much more trouble than it has helped the country to solve problems. With the discovery of oil in Venezuelan territory, the country developed and industrialized; nevertheless it too became a focus of international interest. This brought to Venezuela a period of political stability with wealth for some and poverty for the majority. As popular unrest rose, Hugo Chavez came to power, a politician who declared war to capitalism and left a divided society and a country currently afflicted by a deep economic crisis. The main actors in this conflict and their interest were the subjects of our analysis.
Keywords: Oil; Hugo Chavez; Nicolas Madura; Economic crisis; Capitalism; Socialism; Venezuela; Poverty;
Scientific inquiry circle activities of local citizens for bottom-up type innovation
by Hajime Eto
Abstract: This paper proposes a long-ranged innovation policy via intellectual or scientific development of locals in the situation of economic depression. Specifically, this paper proposes to organise local inquiry circles of citizens such as teachers, experienced farmers or fishermen, unemployed youths with a certain educational background, and students. The creative inquiry activities are purposed to accumulate intellectual or scientific knowledge for future innovation potentials in locals. These circle activities can learn lessons from the experiences of success in small volunteer-based circle activities such as 4-H clubs (Head, Heart, Hands, and Health) in agricultural areas in the early and the middle 1900s and quality circles in industries in the middle and the late 1900s. These proposed activities can be voluntarily allied with the currently active tourism policies in locals. In a long-ranged scope, they are expected to foster the intellectual or scientific potentials in locals and to push up the innovations in locals.
Keywords: citizens participation in innovative inquiry; creativity education in locals; fosterage of local innovation potentials; 4-H club; grassroots level innovative inquiry; inquiry-based science education; little science; local-centric innovative circles; long-ranged innovation policy; pushup-type innovation.
Brand ethics and social media engagement
by Ayse Begum Ersoy, Halil Zaim, Yavuz Keceli, Selma Kurtishi-Kastrati
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate ethical nature of social media engagement of companies and examines whether or not ethical perception of customers about the companies based on their social media activity and their actual ethical performance make an impact on consumer preferences. Social media engagement of preferred brands/companies and customers is analysed from the perspective of ethics, ethical behaviour, and ethical perception. One of the major findings of this research is that ethical performance positively affects consumer preferences. According to data analysis ethical policies and social media engagement of companies, have direct effects on ethical performance, thus ethical performance positively affects consumer preferences. Moreover, the research indicates that consumer awareness of ethical practices positively affects consumer preferences. The effects of ethical policies on ethical performance are also examined in this research and a positive direct relationship has been disclosed. The research also reveals the positive relationship between social media engagement and consumer awareness.
Keywords: social media; brand ethics; social media engagement; consumer behaviour; social media attribution; econometric modelling.
Competitiveness and sustainability in horticulture: strategy for small businesses
by Filippo Sgroi, Enrica Donia, Fabrizio Piraino
Abstract: Vegetable cultivation has a significant history in the countries of the Mediterranean basin. Italy is an important horticultural producer and, in this context, Sicily offers ideal conditions for the protected cultivation of field vegetables. Apart from a few well-organised producers, in many areas horticulture is characterised by backward entrepreneurial systems and fragmented production lines that make the vegetable market one that is very close to being a rigged competition in which companies must accept the price and have no negotiating power. This situation has been aggravated even further by the recent economic crisis and the subsequent recession, resulting in the disappearance of the production conditions for many small horticultural businesses. According to the theory of economic development, this loss causes the impoverishment of the area and has negative consequences on employment and income. In the present work, the profitability of a horticultural enterprise was measured. The study was conducted in Sicily, an island in the centre of the Mediterranean, where the cultivation of vegetables has a long history. The results show low profitability in relation to high production costs, as well as low market prices, reflecting imports from other countries in the Mediterranean basin and other Italian regions.
Keywords: horticultural producer; farm; innovation.
Sharing of tacit knowledge and service innovation performance
by Rana E. Jisr, François Thérin
Abstract: This paper examines the relationships among tacit knowledge, knowledge sharing, and service innovation performance. To examine the relationships, we collected the survey data by targeting employees in a service industry, The Lebanese Broadcast Corporation International (LBCI) located in Lebanon (n = 162). It is a leading Lebanese and Arab television station. The results indicate that there exists a positive relationship between (1) tacit knowledge and service innovation performance; and (2) knowledge sharing and service innovation performance. Also, this study finds that knowledge sharing mediates the relationship between tacit knowledge and service innovation performance. The value of the current study is presented in examining the mediating role of knowledge sharing. Our findings suggest that firms could encourage and motivate their employees to share their knowledge in order to enhance service innovation performance.
Keywords: tacit knowledge; knowledge sharing; service innovation performance.
Revisiting complexity theory to achieve strategic intelligence
by Gianpaolo Basile, Hans Rüdiger Kaufmann, Marco Savastano
Abstract: The present work aims to analyse the choice of strategic management conditions considering both, systemic and complexity perspectives applied by analogy to business. The approach represents the firm as a complex adaptive system, where management, to make strategic and operative decisions, must reduce complexity amplifying information variety. According to this approach the firm, in a turbulent environment, must develop different competences, especially in the field of innovation, in order to achieve survival/dynamic conditions through the creation and/or maintenance of relationships with numerous, diverse and heterogeneous stakeholders. This work aims to answer the following research questions: can the complexity theory meet the needs of managers and marketers as well as scholars' theoretical foundations, to develop strategic intelligence to effectively manage the dynamism of organisations/brand in turbulent environments; does regarding organisations and networks as adaptive systems help scholars and managers in their decision making processes?
Keywords: complexity; dynamic decision making; problem solving; information variety; complexity theory; environmental dynamism.
The influence of business and political ties on supplier selection decisions: the case of the Nigerian public sector
by Eyo Emmanel Essien, Anastasia Konstantopoulou, Ioannis Konstopoulos, George Lodorfos
Abstract: Extant relevant literature suggests that nonmarket elements such as social ties are important strategic options that may help organisations enhance their competitiveness relative to other competitors when bidding for important supply jobs. However, our current understanding of their effects on organisational outcomes, especially in public supplier selection decisions in emerging economies, is far from complete. Using a sample of 342 experienced senior management team (SMT) members and senior level staff in 40 public sector organisations in Nigeria, this study examined the relative importance of business and political ties as sources of advantage and strategic intelligence for prospective vendors and contractors during strategic supplier selection decisions. Our findings show that both business and political ties are significant predictors of supplier selection outcomes, and their relative importance in the selection outcome is indistinguishable and key to strategic decision making. Overall, our result suggests that both business and political ties can be utilised as sources of important resources by supplier firms.
Keywords: business and political ties; supplier selection decision; public sector.
Building dynamic capabilities in large global advertising agency networks: managing the shift from mass communication to digital interactivity
by Wisam Suheimat, Thim Prætorius, Jan Vang
Abstract: Interactive digital technologies result in significant managerial challenges for the largest global advertising agency networks. This paper, based on original data from in-depth case research in three of the largest global advertising networks, investigates how advertising agency networks manage the change from mass communication to digital interactivity by applying theory of dynamic capabilities to assess challenges and solutions. Relatedly, the paper analyses the change agent role ascribed to the Chief Digital Officers mandated to solve the digital interactivity challenges. The findings uncover the cognitive, structural, operational and process changes needed to develop digital interactivity, thereby highlighting important managerial implications.
Keywords: advertising; dynamic capabilities; digital technology; digital interactivity; organisational change; change agent.
Corporate crisis management in Italy: execution, monitoring and performance analysis of recovery business and financial plans
by Alberto Tron, Giuseppe Valenza, Andrea Caputo
Abstract: This paper presents a thorough investigation of how corporate crises are managed in the Italian context. It offers an investigation of the legal, accounting, finance and managerial aspects that are involved in the formal resolution of the crisis. The paper adopts a qualitative methodology consisting in a critical review of both the academic and the practical literature to present a systematic overview of how recovery plans are executed, monitored and their performance analysed. The paper presents important insights for researchers, practitioners, entrepreneurs and managers interested in crisis management.
Keywords: crisis management; Italy; restructuring; turnaround; monitoring; finance.
Future strategic plan for national immunisation program in Iran: cost effectiveness of acellular pertussis versus whole-cell
by Roxana Mansour-Ghanaei, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Abdollah Karimi, Mohsen Yaghoubi, Afshin Amiraslany, Amarjit Gill, Seyed Mohsen Zahraei
Abstract: We investigated the new strategic plan of immunisation against whooping cough by conducting cost effectiveness analysis of acellular whooping cough vaccination compared with whole-cell vaccination, a current strategy used in the Iranian national immunisation program. We used a decision tree model together with sensitivity analysis to find the results. The findings of this study suggest that the implementation of acellular immunisation program for children and acellular immunisation program for high-risk groups are the most cost-effective strategies in Iran by US$12,691 incremental cost per disability adjusted life years averted. The results also suggest that acellular vaccine for children is cost-effective scenario in Iran when resulting from whole-cell vaccine associated side-effects is accounted. This study contributes to the literature on the factors that decrease healthcare sector costs. The study also provides critical policy recommendations for the decision makers in the healthcare sector. The findings may be useful for decision makers in the healthcare sectors and the government of Iran.
Keywords: strategic plan; whooping cough; acellular; whole-cell; cost effectiveness; children; Iran.
Special Issue on: Policies and Developmental Studies for Migration and Global Society
World Risk Society. Environmental Risks: A Driving Force for Cosmopolitanism
by Veronika Wittmann
Abstract: Risk society today means world risk society. Its essential features are man-made risks, which have no social, space or time limits. World risk society identifies three main global risks: transnational terrorism, financial hazards and environmental risks. Environmental issues in this framework cannot be seen as problems in the environment of society, but they have to be considered as inner world problems of society itself. \r\nThe interpretational framework of world risk society can be subdivided into three levels: First, global threats cause global commonalities; the contours of a world public are emerging. Secondly, the perception of global self-hazards releases a politically tailored impulse for the revitalization of national policy as well as for the training and design of cooperative international institutions. Thirdly, the delimitation of the political has to be researched: the perceived needs of world risk society give way to a world civil society. Henceforth, in world risk society environmental hazards can be interpreted as a driving force for cosmopolitanism, global environmental risks and their practical and discursive treatment create transnational communities.\r\n
Keywords: world risk society; environmental risks; cosmopolitanism; reflexive modernization; cosmopolitan view; risk society; cosmopolitan moment; global hazards; global commonalities; world civil society.
For a Europe of Cultural Regions
by Herbert Rauch
Abstract: The paper intends to explore the bedrock of Europe, on the basis of which all the developing problems of the 21st century presuming a bit of good fortune can be mastered: growing migration, growing conflicts with respect to scarcer resources and growing population, with respect to growing interdependency etc. These considerations are the basis for the strategic choice to be made.
As a methodological approach, the philosophical discourse is the final base to reflect and reason about past and future. History and social research help in the opportunity to understand part of the challenge and the zeitgeist; the latter more and more saturated with technology and global connectivity.
Sociological surveys show that everywhere in the 28 (27) Countries of the present EU (still including the United Kingdom and especially England with respect to the attitude of the young) the generation of the children of the so-called 1968 generation do not even want to think of a future narrowed down only to smaller or larger nations. Nevertheless, the specific form of constitution (in principle: Union vs. Federation) is especially now (after Brexit) again open for discussion.
Keywords: Planetary Imperative; attitudes with respect to constitutional questions; the elder and the younger generation within the Europe; the “Cultural Regions” (e.g. Catalonia; Wallonia; Scotland etc.) with a specific cultural heritage and history are the new “countervailing powers” of a “Globalized Economy” (i.e. outsourced production steps and worldwide trade...).
An empirical analysis of the organisational structure and processes in a refugee collection centre
by Elisabeth Coutinho
Abstract: In the last few years, foresight and systemic thinking have become increasingly important. Migration studies need to analyse issues from a holistic perspective as well, which also means including conclusions about the future and learning processes. In order to look at a rather important interface in the context of the migration crisis, an empirical study on the collection centre in Spielfeld at the southern border of Austria was performed. The findings were obtained by conducting expert interviews within a case study. The study indicated four key actors: police, Austrian Armed Forces, Caritas and Austrian Red Cross. Despite the reduction in staff, there are no current plans for the closure of the collection centre. The challenges and problems are divided into three categories: the construction phase, the period of operation and the pressure from asylum seekers, who want to continue their travels. Furthermore, there seems to have occurred a phase of overextension.
Keywords: Refugee collection centre; migration crisis; asylum seekers; refugees; organisational structure and processes; case study; relief forces; escape; Europe; Austria; Styria; Spielfeld.
About the philosophy of international relations
by Yury Sayamov
Abstract: The author examines philosophic components in the ways of thinking and decision-making in the sphere of international relations, while drawing links from the past to the present. Thus, this article strategically contributes to the quality, democratic content and rationality of decision making on innovations for institutionalised processes for globalisation, and stimulates systemic international learning.
Keywords: philosophy; international relations; new formats; strategic intelligence.
The European refugee crisis in Europe and multicultural integration
by Edita Calakovic
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to look into the recent refugee crisis in Europe and to argue on how this crisis turned into a humanitarian problem at a global scene. Moreover, this migration crisis has been developed into a security issue in Europe and in the same time affecting the dynamics of the European integration. For Europe, the integration of refugees is a big challenge. The debates have been focused on immigrant population as a whole rather than asylum-seekers in particular. The debate was often difficult to control because of different meaning between those who favour more assimilation policies against those who argue for protection for the newcomers cultural identity. This research paper is trying to find out how the Europe is dealing with this huge challenge of immigrants and with their integration.
Keywords: Refugee crisis; Europe; Integration; Multiculturalism; Asylum; Arab spring; civil war; EU-Turkey deal.
Policy analysis and strategic foresight for maintaining security during public events in the Global South
by Robert Ziegler
Abstract: This article examines policies and policy-relevant effects during the preparation and implementation phases of an internationally relevant large-scale public event in an emerging country of the Global South. The 2010 World Cup in South Africa serves as an example to show the behavioural patterns, quality, democratic content and rationality of decision making of the involved transnational companies and globalised institutions. Global players such as FIFA, Coca Cola and others utilised strategic intelligence to serve own corporate interests but ignored human rights for their own benefit. As a consequence, South Africa plunged into enormously high public debts and experienced an increase of social inequalities and poverty. This example for neo-colonialist effects of globalisation in the Global South suggests that better policies for catch-up strategies in the development process should be identified, namely one that takes into account foresight, public security for all populace and the importance of human rights.
Keywords: Human rights; Violations; Fulfilment; Responsibility; South Africa; World Cup; FIFA; Globalisation; Global Society.
The Thabarwa Centres a mindful foresight strategy
by Khema Cari, Aloka Nani
Abstract: Within the frame of globalisation and the strive for future modes of living in a global society, this article describes the development of the Thabarwa Meditation Centres, which started in Yangon, Myanmar in 2007. It explains the aim of the centres, their mode of operation, and their organisational structure, based on the centres main paradigms. To understand their stunning growth and success, it is crucial to perceive how they bring their members to understand what is called the law of cause and effect concerning everyones actions. Once a person understands this law of cause and effect, one can use it to transform his or her life. A Thabarwa Centre is the place where any person can abandon creating causes for suffering (understood in the Buddhist sense) and instead make causes for good results. This article describes how the Thabarwa Centres are answering the needs of society on material and spiritual levels by offering free food, housing, medical care, education and meditation guidance to everyone that arrives in the centre.
Keywords: Social help; meditation; Buddhism; Theravada Buddhism; purification of mind; mindfulness; truth; desire; suffering; nature; impermanence; healing; Myanmar; Yangoon.
Beyond Sigmund Freuds Totem and Taboo Vision for the Future The Omnipotence of Thought
by Franz Moser
Abstract: In 1913, Sigmund Freud (1856-1939), the founder of psychoanalysis, developed in his book Totem and Taboo general ideas about mankinds evolution over the ages.
He postulated three stages for mankinds evolution from prehistoric times up to the present and differentiated between a first phase of animism and magic (for him the most correct and comprehensive), a second religious phase and a third phase of scientific paradigms.
Only a hundred years after Freud postulated his ideas, mankind is entering a fourth phase which, to everybodys surprise, is again an animistic-holisic paradigm.
This time, however, the new paradigm is based on concepts and ideas from science, i.e. quantum physics and the theory of self-organisation.
Corresponding to scientific developments, a new metaphysical worldview was presented by A Course in Miracles (1975), which for the first time in history is in complete agreement with the new scientific theories of quantum physics and self-organisation, and presents an entirely new worldview for the coming ages.
It is the purpose of this article to show the way in which this new holistic-animistic paradigm, on scientific grounds with a metaphysical basis, can be justified.
Keywords: omnipotence of thought; animism; evolutionary phases of consciousness; quantum physics; A Course in Miracles; biological reality; energy consciousness; EC-reality; the unknown beyond; non-dualistic consciousness; NDC-awareness; free will; predetermination; political correctness.
Subjectivity and the Evolution of Reality
by Alun Brown
Abstract: The profound impact of the information revolution and social media on humanrnperceptions of reality is a phenomenon that is only now beginning to grow apparent. Our faculties of discernment are being challenged like never before as a bewildering array of ideologies, credos, agendas and epistemological attitudes jostle for supremacy on the information highway. What are some of the implications of these precarious shifts in our individual and collective perspectives of reality, and what forces or motivations may be responsible for driving them? Could the way the very systems we have developed for discerning and disseminating truth themselves be in some ways increasingly responsible for inhibiting our further understanding of the nature of reality, and our quest to improve the quality of life for one and all?
Keywords: Social media; consciousness; pseudoscience; pseudoscepticism; dogmatism,rnsubjectivity; objective reality; human agendas; perception; creation; credibility; authority; factrn.
The Conception of Human Beingness at different times, in different cultures, up to the Present
by Franz Moser
Abstract: An overview of the changing aspects of human beingness, at different times in different cultures, is given in this article.
An interesting aspect in this case is the difference between Eastern and Western views, as the former are much more idealistic than those in the West.
The article highlights the confrontation between different aspects of beingness within different paradigms at present, in which we experience materialism and capitalism dominating the thinking and behaviour of Western cultures.
At the same time, a new idealistic paradigm that includes quantum physics and A Course in Miracles, a book containing spiritual wisdom knowledge, is emerging.
This new paradigm is hardly noticeable in society at present, but will certainly dominate the evolution of human consciousness for the next few hundred years.
Keywords: The Old and New Testament; Confucius; Tao Te Ching; Upanishads; Hinduism; Buddhism; Bhagavad-Gita; Enlightenment; Materialism; Capitalism; Immanuel Kant; Vienna Circle; Quantum physics; A Course in Miracles.
Forthcoming Changes in World Population Distribution and Global Connectivity: Implications for Global Foresight
by Julia Zinkina, Sergey Shulgin, Alexey Andreev, Ivan Aleshkovski, Andrey Korotayev
Abstract: For the first-world citizens, globalization seems to be an all-pervasive phenomenon. Our research reveals that global connectivity rates differ dramatically for various countries and, correspondingly, their populations. What will this picture look like in, say, 50 years? We combine demographic projections with our knowledge on the recent dynamics of national rates of global connectivity to estimate the proportion of world population which is expected to live in countries with varying rates of global connectivity. We show that the distribution of world population among the states with various rates of global connectivity is bound to experience significant changes in the coming decades. Thus, the low-connected countries are expected to experience the greatest population increase in the middle-term (until 2050) and long-term (until 2100) perspective. This should be taken into account at various attempts of providing global foresight.
Keywords: globalization; global connectivity; measuring globalization; demographic projections; world population; global population forecast; global foresight.
Saving the Economic System
by Martina Pfarrhofer
Abstract: The economic system is facing troubles and so are the human race and many other species. The differentiated economic system developed in a way that stands in contradiction to the ecological system. While the ecological system mostly functions in cycles, with flows and stocks of mass and energy, the economic system has been coined by terms like unlimited growth and maximisation of profits for the last centuries. The differences between the systems lead to negative effects, like climate change, that can no longer be ignored. This article displays some paths that could be taken to resolve the discrepancies by applying basic principles of systems theory by Niklas Luhmann. Systems theory allows thinking out of the box and this is what is needed to save the economic system as well as its surrounding.
Keywords: economic system; ecological system; Global Studies; interdisciplinary; transdisciplinary; multiperspective; internal change; structural change; environment; cycles; unlimited growth; environmental economics; ecological economics; open mind; transformation; solution paths.
A Centre of Excellence for Infrastructure Project Preparation and PPP to Fight Climate Change
by Gilbert Ahamer
Abstract: This article describes the concept for a Regional Centre of Excellence and Advisory Facility for Project Design, Financing, and Public-Private Partnership (PPP), using Central Asia (CA) as an example. The key task is to support partner countries in developing their bankable climate-related and environmental infrastructure projects for funding through International Financial Institutions (IFIs) while complying with their social and environmental project quality criteria. For the success of a Virtual Knowledge Centre (VKC), the communication options are essential. Its main task is to create a social community.
Keywords: Paris conference; Centre of Excellence; Advisory Facility; municipalities; cities; sustainability; green technology; climate change measures; clean technologies; Central Asia; PPP; Public-Private Partnership; Virtual Knowledge Centre.
Brazilian Agricultural Sector: Potentials and Problems from Different Points of View
by Verena Kronberger, Corinna Hausner, Cornelia Gruber, Irina Kinzner, Florian Schweikert
Abstract: This paper aims to discuss potentials and problems for the Brazilian agricultural sector from different points of view by applying the Surfing Global Change (SGC) methodology. The intention is to give relevant stakeholders room for statements and to find solutions to improve the overall situation. The contrarian perspectives of indigenous peoples, government, private sector and international organisations shows the difficulty of finding acceptable compromises, although poverty reduction is a common goal. Both private and public sectors are in favour of FDIs and other investments into agriculture by using partly neoclassical and Keynesianism approaches. Indigenous peoples and International Organizations focus on human rights and the unequal power of resources. First, the previously mentioned SGC methodology will be explained in detail. Secondly, the paper takes a closer look at the underlying theories. Thirdly, the arguments of the four different points of view will be portrayed. Afterwards the authors present their consensus approach.
Keywords: surfing global change; Brazilian agricultural sector; public private partnership; foreign direct investment; sustainable development; economic development; development cooperation; poverty reduction; development policy; land grabbing; indigenous rights; international organizations; climate change; sustainability;.