International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy (18 papers in press)
FISHBONE DIAGRAM FOR TECHNOLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND FORESIGHT
by Mario Coccia
Abstract: Fishbone diagram is a graphical technique to show the several causes of a specific event. Fishbone diagram is applied here as a novel graphical representation to identify, explore and analyse the source and evolution of innovation and especially General Purpose Technologies (GPTs). Firstly, the study here shows the driving forces of GPTs, such as: higher democratization, high investment in R&D, etc. Secondly, these drivers of GPTs and in gen-eral of new technology are represented with fishbone diagram for the technological analysis. Some examples are given by applying the Fishbone diagram to specific GPTs, such as steam engine and Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). Overall, then, fishbone diagram seems to be an appropriate and general technique of graphical representation for the technological analysis and foresight of path-breaking innovation in society.
Keywords: Fishbone Diagram; General Purpose Technology; Technological Foresight; Sources of Innovation; Technological Evolution; New Technology; Technological Analysis.
Special Issue on: Policies and Developmental Studies for Migration and Global Society
World risk society. Environmental risks: a driving force for cosmopolitanism
by Veronika Wittmann
Abstract: Risk society today means world risk society. Its essential features are man-made risks, which have no social, space or time limits. World risk society identifies three main global risks: transnational terrorism, financial hazards and environmental risks. Environmental issues in this framework cannot be seen as problems in the environment of society, but they have to be considered as inner world problems of society itself. The interpretational framework of world risk society can be subdivided into three levels: first, global threats cause global commonalities; the contours of a world public are emerging. Secondly, the perception of global self-hazards releases a politically tailored impulse for the revitalisation of national policy as well as for the training and design of cooperative international institutions. Thirdly, the delimitation of the political has to be researched: the perceived needs of world risk society give way to a world civil society. Henceforth, in world risk society environmental hazards can be interpreted as a driving force for cosmopolitanism, global environmental risks and their practical and discursive treatment create transnational communities.
Keywords: world risk society; environmental risks; cosmopolitanism; reflexive modernisation; cosmopolitan view; risk society; cosmopolitan moment; global hazards; global commonalities; world civil society.
Forthcoming changes in world population distribution and global connectivity: implications for global foresight
by Julia Zinkina, Sergey Shulgin, Alexey Andreev, Ivan Aleshkovski, Andrey Korotayev
Abstract: For the first-world citizens, globalisation seems to be an all-pervasive phenomenon. Our research reveals that global connectivity rates differ dramatically for various countries and correspondingly, their populations. What will this picture look like in, say, 50 years? We combine demographic projections with our knowledge on the recent dynamics of national rates of global connectivity to estimate the proportion of world population which is expected to live in countries with varying rates of global connectivity. We show that the distribution of world population among the states with various rates of global connectivity is bound to experience significant changes in the coming decades, which should be taken into account at various attempts of providing global foresight.
Keywords: globalisation; measuring globalisation; demographic projections; global connectivity; world population; global population forecast; global foresight.
Beyond Sigmund Freud's Totem and Taboo vision for the future - the omnipotence of thought
by Franz Moser
Abstract: In 1913, Sigmund Freud (1856-1939) developed in his book Totem and Taboo, general ideas about humankind's evolution over the ages. He postulated three stages for humankind's evolution from prehistoric times up to the present and differentiated between a first phase of animism and magic, a second religious and a third phase of scientific paradigms. Only hundred years after Freud postulated his ideas, humankind is entering a fourth phase which, to everybody's surprise, again is an animistic-holistic paradigm. This time, however, this new paradigm is based on concepts and ideas from science, i.e., quantum physics and the theory of self-organisation. Corresponding to the scientific developments, a new metaphysical worldview was also presented by A Course in Miracles, which for the first time in history, is in complete agreement with the new scientific theories of quantum physics and self organisation and presents an entirely new world view for the coming ages.
Keywords: animism; evolutionary phases; consciousness; quantum physics; omnipotence of thought; biological reality; energy consciousness-reality; the unknown beyond; non-dualistic consciousness; non-dualistic-awareness; free will; predetermination; political correctness; A Course in Miracles; ACIM.
Subjectivity and the evolution of reality
by Alun H. Brown
Abstract: The profound impact of the information revolution and social media on human perceptions of reality is a phenomenon that is only now beginning to grow apparent. Our faculties of discernment are being challenged like never before as a bewildering array of ideologies, credos, agendas and epistemological attitudes jostle for supremacy on the information highway. What are some of the implications of these precarious shifts in our individual and collective perspectives of reality, and what forces or motivations may be responsible for driving them? Could the way the very systems we have developed for discerning and disseminating truth themselves be in some ways increasingly responsible for inhibiting our further understanding of the nature of reality, and our quest to improve the quality of life for one and all?
Keywords: social media; consciousness; pseudoscience; pseudoscepticism; dogmatism; subjectivity; objective reality; human agendas; perception; creation; credibility; authority; fact.
About the philosophy of international relations
by Yury Nikolayevich Sayamov
Abstract: The author examines philosophic components in the ways of thinking and decision-making in the sphere of international relations, while drawing links from the past to the present. Thus, this article strategically contributes to the quality, democratic content and rationality of decision making on innovations for institutionalised processes for globalisation, and stimulates systemic international learning.
Keywords: philosophy; international relations; new formats; strategic intelligence.
For a 'Europe of cultural regions'
by Herbert Rauch
Abstract: The paper intends to explore the bedrock of Europe, on the basis of which all the developing problems of the 21st century - presuming a bit of good fortune - can be mastered: growing migration, growing conflicts with respect to scarcer resources and growing population, with respect to growing interdependency, etc. These considerations are the basis for the strategic choice to be made. As a methodological approach, the philosophical discourse is the final base to reflect and reason about past and future. History and social research help in the opportunity to understand part of the challenge and the 'zeitgeist'; the latter more and more saturated with technology and global connectivity. Sociological surveys show that everywhere in the 28 (27) countries of the present EU (still including the UK and especially England with respect to the attitude of the young) the generation of the children of the so-called 1968 generation do not even want to think of a future narrowed down only to smaller or larger nations. Nevertheless, the specific form of constitution (in principle: union vs. federation) is especially now (after Brexit) again open for discussion.
Keywords: planetary imperative; constitutional questions; elder and the younger generation; the cultural regions; cultural heritage; countervailing powers; globalised economy; worldwide trade.
Saving the economic system
by Martina Pfarrhofer
Abstract: The economic system is facing troubles and so are the human race and many other species. The differentiated economic system developed in a way that stands in contradiction to the ecological system. While the ecological system mostly functions in cycles, with flows and stocks of mass and energy, the economic system has been characterised by terms like unlimited growth and maximisation of profits for the last centuries. The differences between the systems lead to negative effects, e.g., climate change, which can no longer be ignored. This article displays some paths that could be taken to resolve the discrepancies by applying basic principles of systems theory by Niklas Luhmann. Systems theory allows thinking out of the box and this is what is needed to save the economic system as well as its surrounding.
Keywords: global studies; interdisciplinary; cycles; transdisciplinary; unlimited growth; ecological economics; transformation; solution paths.
Foresight into climate-compatible futures for cities and regions
by Gilbert Ahamer
Abstract: This article describes methods of climate-related action for sub-governmental bodies such as cities and regions. Durable ways of engagement within the Conference of the Parties (COP) negotiation dynamics are searched, analysed and proposed. The brief institutional and financial analysis covers the past decade and includes suggestions for concrete measures on municipal and regional levels. Overall, this article is intended to guide and inspire cities and regions towards concrete action to optimise their negotiation tactics, climate financing approaches, concrete project definitions and project-financing proposals.
Keywords: Paris conference; climate conference; municipalities; cities; sustainability; green technology; climate change measures; clean technologies.
The conception of human beingness at different times, in different cultures, up to the present
by Franz Moser
Abstract: An overview of the changing aspects of human beingness at different times in different cultures is given in this article. The interesting aspect in this case is the difference between Eastern and Western views, as the former are much more idealistic than those in the West. The article highlights the confrontation between different aspects of beingness within different paradigms at present, in which we experience materialism and capitalism dominating the thinking and behaviour of Western cultures. At the same time, a new idealistic paradigm that includes quantum physics and A Course in Miracles, a book containing spiritual wisdom knowledge, is emerging. This new paradigm is hardly noticeable in society at present, but will certainly dominate the evolution of human consciousness for the next few hundred years.
Keywords: Old Testament; New Testament; Confucius; Tao Te Ching; Upanishads; Hinduism; Buddhism; Bhagavad Gita; Enlightenment; materialism; capitalism; Immanuel Kant; Vienna Circle; quantum physics; a course in miracles.
An empirical analysis of the organisational structure and processes in a refugee collection centre
by Elisabeth Coutinho
Abstract: In the last few years, foresight and systemic thinking have become increasingly important. Migration studies need to analyse issues from a holistic perspective as well, which also means including conclusions about the future and learning processes. In order to look at a rather important interface in the context of the migration crisis, an empirical study on the collection centre in Spielfeld at the southern border of Austria was performed. The findings were obtained by conducting expert interviews within a case study. The study indicated four key actors: police, Austrian Armed Forces, Caritas and Austrian Red Cross. Despite the reduction in staff, there are no current plans for the closure of the collection centre. The challenges and problems are divided into three categories: the construction phase, the period of operation and the pressure from asylum seekers, who want to continue their travels. Furthermore, there seems to have occurred a phase of overextension.
Keywords: refugee collection centre; migration crisis; asylum seekers; refugees; organisational structure and processes; case study; relief forces; escape; Europe; Austria; Styria; Spielfeld.
Policy analysis and strategic foresight for maintaining security during public events in the Global South
by Robert Ziegler
Abstract: This article examines policies and policy-relevant effects during the preparation and implementation phases of an internationally relevant large-scale public event in an emerging country of the Global South. The 2010 World Cup in South Africa serves as an example to show the behavioural patterns, quality, democratic content and rationality of decision making of the involved transnational companies and globalised institutions. Global players such as FIFA, Coca Cola and others utilised strategic intelligence to serve own corporate interests but ignored human rights for their own benefit. As a consequence, South Africa plunged into enormously high public debts and experienced an increase of social inequalities and poverty. This example for neo-colonialist effects of globalisation in the Global South suggests that better policies for 'catch-up strategies' in the development process should be identified, namely one that takes into account foresight, public security for all populace and the importance of human rights.
Keywords: human rights; violations; fulfilment; responsibility; South Africa; World Cup; FIFA; globalisation; global society.
The European refugee crisis in Europe and multicultural integration
by Edita Calakovic
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to look into the recent refugee crisis in Europe and to argue on how this crisis turned into a humanitarian problem at a global scene. Moreover, this migration crisis has been developed into a security issue in Europe and in the same time affecting the dynamics of the European integration. For Europe, the integration of refugees is a big challenge. The debates have been focused on immigrant population as a whole rather than asylum-seekers in particular. The debate was often difficult to control because of different meaning between those who favour more assimilation policies against those who argue for protection for the newcomers cultural identity. This research paper is trying to find out how the Europe is dealing with this huge challenge of immigrants and with their integration.
Keywords: Refugee crisis; Europe; Integration; Multiculturalism; Asylum; Arab spring; civil war; EU-Turkey deal.
The Thabarwa Centres a mindful foresight strategy
by Khema Cari, Aloka Nani
Abstract: Within the frame of globalisation and the strive for future modes of living in a global society, this article describes the development of the Thabarwa Meditation Centres, which started in Yangon, Myanmar in 2007. It explains the aim of the centres, their mode of operation, and their organisational structure, based on the centres main paradigms. To understand their stunning growth and success, it is crucial to perceive how they bring their members to understand what is called the law of cause and effect concerning everyones actions. Once a person understands this law of cause and effect, one can use it to transform his or her life. A Thabarwa Centre is the place where any person can abandon creating causes for suffering (understood in the Buddhist sense) and instead make causes for good results. This article describes how the Thabarwa Centres are answering the needs of society on material and spiritual levels by offering free food, housing, medical care, education and meditation guidance to everyone that arrives in the centre.
Keywords: Social help; meditation; Buddhism; Theravada Buddhism; purification of mind; mindfulness; truth; desire; suffering; nature; impermanence; healing; Myanmar; Yangoon.
A Centre of Excellence for Infrastructure Project Preparation and PPP to Fight Climate Change
by Gilbert Ahamer
Abstract: This article describes the concept for a Regional Centre of Excellence and Advisory Facility for Project Design, Financing, and Public-Private Partnership (PPP), using Central Asia (CA) as an example. The key task is to support partner countries in developing their bankable climate-related and environmental infrastructure projects for funding through International Financial Institutions (IFIs) while complying with their social and environmental project quality criteria. For the success of a Virtual Knowledge Centre (VKC), the communication options are essential. Its main task is to create a social community.
Keywords: Paris conference; Centre of Excellence; Advisory Facility; municipalities; cities; sustainability; green technology; climate change measures; clean technologies; Central Asia; PPP; Public-Private Partnership; Virtual Knowledge Centre.
The Soviet Nationalities Policies and their contribution to conflicts: Law, and Legacies and Ideology
by Benedikt Harzl
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the Soviet nationalities policies and its legal instruments on the territorial conflicts along the ethno-federal lines of the former USSR. By looking at selected examples in the South Caucasus, this work considers, in particular, how the Soviet ideology of ethnic federalism fuelled conflicts within the federal units of the USSR. It is argued that the installation of proto-elements of statehood and the promotion of national consciousness within the USSR which were at the core of Soviet nationality policies created the structural conditions, which resulted in the outbreak of conflicts across the USSR after 1989. The paper contemplates, further, that the concept of ethnic federalism remains the most haunting legacy of the Soviet ethnopolitics: Rather than vanishing with the demise of the USSR, it continues to shape political decision-making in the South Caucasus.
Keywords: Abkhazia; autonomy; ethnopolitics; ethnoterritoriality; federalism; law; Nagorno-Karabakh; nationalism; South Caucasus; Soviet Union; Transnistria.
The Divided Venezuela
by Agnes Haidacher, Mariana Lourdes Olvera Colin, Nikolina Jankovic
Abstract: Venezuela is one of the biggest oil producers in the world. This seems, however, to have brought Venezuela much more trouble than it has helped the country to solve problems. With the discovery of oil in Venezuelan territory, the country developed and industrialized; nevertheless it too became a focus of international interest. This brought to Venezuela a period of political stability with wealth for some and poverty for the majority. As popular unrest rose, Hugo Chavez came to power, a politician who declared war to capitalism and left a divided society and a country currently afflicted by a deep economic crisis. The main actors in this conflict and their interest were the subjects of our analysis.
Keywords: Oil; Hugo Chavez; Nicolas Madura; Economic crisis; Capitalism; Socialism; Venezuela; Poverty;.
Brazilian agricultural sector: potentials and problems from different points of view
by Cornelia Gruber, Corinna Hausner, Irina Kinzner, Verena Kronberger, Florian Alexander Schweikert
Abstract: This paper aims to discuss potentials and problems for the Brazilian agricultural sector from different points of view by applying the surfing global change (SGC) methodology. The intention is to give relevant stakeholders room for statements and to find solutions to improve the overall situation. The contrarian perspectives of indigenous peoples, government, private sector and international organisations shows the difficulty of finding acceptable compromises, although poverty reduction is a common goal. Both private and public sectors are in favour of FDIs and other investments into agriculture by using partly neoclassical and Keynesianism approaches. Indigenous peoples and international organisations focus on human rights and the unequal power of resources. First, the previously mentioned SGC methodology will be explained in detail. Secondly, the paper takes a closer look at the underlying theories. Thirdly, the arguments of the four different points of view will be portrayed. Afterwards the authors present their consensus approach.
Keywords: Brazil; agriculture; development; poverty; land grabbing; indigenous rights; surfing global change; SGC; economy.