International Journal of Decision Support Systems (9 papers in press)
A tradeoff analysis between socio-economic efficiency and environmental performance of irrigated agriculture
by Panagiotis Mitropoulos, Konstantinos Vasileiou, Ioannis Mitropoulos
Abstract: European irrigated agriculture is very important in economic, social and environmental terms. A linear programming model that simulates the farmers behaviour in cropping selection was used to evaluate the impact on farm performance of intervention measures, namely i) volumetric pricing and ii) abstraction quota restrictions that might be used to ration water and/or increase water use efficiency. The consequences of these policy mechanisms were evaluated, using two conflicting objectives. The first objective enabled to maximize of the farmers' profit, while the second one represents the regulators perspective, to ration water more efficiently, by the minimizing the irrigated water use. The tradeoff analysis between the socio-economic efficiency and the environmental performance revealed the fragility of the farming systems in water scarcity. The results highlight the need for a more careful balance of water conservation and rural development objectives. The approach is illustrated using a case study on irrigated agriculture in East Midlands of England.
Keywords: Bi-objective model; Agricultural planning; Sustainability; Irrigation; Licensing; Water Pricing.
DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS FOR INVESTIGATING OPTIMAL ROAD SAFETY POLICIES UTILIZING GLOBAL EPIDEMIOLOGICAL, RISK EXPOSURE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATISTICS
by Loukas Dimitriou
Abstract: The raising number of motorization and the associated number of road traffic fatalities is reasonably considered as an epidemic phenomenon and one of the most important issues in public policy. In order to understand the phenomenon of road traffic fatalities and to propose road safety measures and policies, it could be helpful the investigation of the phenomenon on a global scale, taking advantage of the international data. The current paper focus on the analysis of the road traffic fatalities, taking into consideration global epidemiological data for a benchmark dataset of the year 2010. The objective is to evaluate-benchmark the countries on their road safety performance, utilizing their socio-economic and demographic context. Finally, road safety measures and strategies of the best-performing countries, in terms of road safety, are suggested to the under-performing countries, in the same terms, in favor of their road safety enhancement. The analytical framework here is based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) which is considered a straightforward benchmarking technique for evaluating the countries road safety performance. A preliminary data-driven analysis was implemented in order to identify possible data inconsistencies (e.g., multicollinearity, endogeneity). The results are contributing on the decision/policy making process by providing a comprehensive picture of the countries road safety performance in the global scale.
Keywords: Data-Driven Analysis; Data Envelopment Analysis; Benchmarking Analysis Accidents Statistics; Global Sectoral Data; Multicollinearity; Road Traffic Fatalities.
Special Issue on: Management and Decision Making in Transport
Maritime ports economic effect on regional development: Estimations for the major maritime ports in Greece
by Maria Sartzetaki, Dimitrios Dimitriou, John Mourmouris
Abstract: Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The quality of transport infrastructure is a key determinant of performance in the transport sector and development of transport infrastructure supports economic growth. Countries spend considerable amounts of money each year to build, maintain and improve their transport infrastructure in response to the growing passenger and freight mobility needs. The international business environment of ports and logistics industry has been changed in the last few decades. The increase of cargo volume created new requirements, and enhanced ports as important gateways of international trade, and major accelerators of national economic development. For this purpose interest in port commercialization is increasing, as governments look for ways to enhance their port efficiency, productivity, competitiveness, and financially viability. Therefore, decisions on commercialization of ports should be based on quantitative data and analysis of the impacts in the national economy. This paper deals with the estimation of the economic impact in national scale caused by ports development. The methodology provides the quantitative analysis framework and the modelling to estimate the economic impact in both: a) macro-level in terms of economic growth; and b) micro-level in terms of business sector distribution, based on Input Output analysis. The numerical application is the ports in the nation of Greece. The application results highlight key messages to decision makers and stakeholders regarding the economic recovering for an economy suffer by recession.
Keywords: Maritime ports;Economic impact;Regional development;Transport infrastructure assets;Decision on port investment;Greek major ports.
Quantitative Financial Analysis for the Estimation of Road Accident Costs
by Thomas Poufinas, Dimitrios Dimitriou
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of traffic accidents in the income generating capacity of the affected individuals. Such an event has also an impact on their contribution back to the society and the state. Therefore the value and/ or cost of a human life in case of a traffic accident need to be evaluated. The problem we address and purely in this term we use the words value and cost - is the quantification in monetary terms of the loss of a human life. We try to quantify the involved cost due to traffic accidents to the affected citizens, emphasizing initially on the loss of life (death).
To estimate the cost we need to know what would have been the income generating capacity of every individual for the remaining of his or her life if the incident had not happened. We find the present value of such income, adjusted for the probability of such an event (death) happening. This resembles to the calculation of a pure insurance premium. We employ insurance-based methods to mimic the calculation of the burning cost of an insurance policy for the case of a death due to traffic accident so as to estimate the annual cost for the entire population and per capita.
It is of interest to the state to have an indication of such a lost income so as to be able to benchmark against it potential new safety measures before introducing them.
Keywords: traffic accident; death; mortality; insurance; protection; pure insurance premium; economic loss; recovery.
Residential Property Market Prices Estimation Using Spatial Analysis Models
by Athanasios Vavatsikos, Evaggelia-Spiridoula Karagiorgou-Papavasili, Maria Giannopoulou
Abstract: Worldwide construction sector is considered to be one of the most important production factors. In that manner property valuation is considered to be an important research field for significant production factors such as investors, developers, construction companies etc. In its simplest form, valuation is the determination of the property transaction price on a specific date. Up to now, a wide range of valuation methods exist, according to the properties potential usage or the aim of the evaluation process. Given the spatial nature of the real estate valuation procedures the role of Geographic Information Systems can significant improve the quality of the valuation procedures so as to derive accurate price estimations and thus to provide decision support for investors and politicians with respect to financial and political decisions. Given that comparative evaluation approach is considered the most preferable approach in property investment, GIS-based approaches are implemented aiming to obtain the most suitable spatial distribution of residential market prices from a set of known estimations. In the paper at hand, through an extensive description of the Greek real estate market, a methodological framework that allow both private and public sector organizations in Greece to obtain property price estimations is proposed. The latter can be a valuable tool for real estate appraisers and investors since it provides data for decision making. In addition it provides the basis for addressing real estate taxation issues and thus to support policy making. Finally the proposed framework is illustrated through a real world case study in the city of Xanthi, located in north-eastern Greece.
Keywords: GIS; Real Estate; Spatial Interpolation; Real Estate Taxation.
A simulation approach to "quay-to-shore storage area" container transfer problem
by Athanasios Ballis, Evanthia Thanou
Abstract: Maritime container terminals are complex systems consisting of various interrelated components. Among them, the subsystem performing the container transfer between the quay and the container storage areas is of critical importance as any inefficiency in feeding a quay crane with containers affects negatively the performance of the whole sea-side operation. The current work conducts an investigation of the parameters affecting the performance of this subsystem and attempts to resolve a contradiction concerning the effectiveness of pooled transfer equipment strategy. The analysis was performed by use of a simulation model for an ideal container berth with an adjacent stack area. Inbound and outgoing container bundling techniques were investigated in combination with pooled equipment strategies. The main outcome is that when quay is linear, the container bundling is effective when it takes place between quay cranes of the same vessel or even between quay cranes of adjacent vessels.
Keywords: Port operations; ship to shore transfer container terminal; simulation.
A combined MCDA - Monte Carlo Simulation approach for the evaluation of investment decisions on public transit.
by Anastasia Roukouni, Athanasios P. Vavatsikos, Maria Giannopoulou, Francesca Medda
Abstract: As cities worldwide are projected to experience a noteworthy growth in population in the decades to come, additional strain is placed on many urban systems that are already at capacity. At the same time, public funds dedicated to transportation are experiencing vital cuts, creating this way considerable problems and forcing transportation specialists to investigate new ways of meeting this financial challenge; a set of options comes under the umbrella term "Value Capture". In this context, the objective of the present paper is to develop a Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) evaluation framework for the selection of the most efficient value capture financing mechanism for urban investment on transportation infrastructure and more importantly, to conduct a comprehensive sensitivity analysis in order to examine the stability and thus efficiency of the obtained results. The MCDA method used is the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while for the sensitivity analysis Monte Carlo Simulation is used. The application of Monte Carlo Simulation revealed very interesting pathways concerning the level of ambiguity and uncertainty of the results.
Keywords: Multicriteria Decision Analysis; Monte Carlo Simulation; Value Capture Finance; Urban Public Transportation.
Special Issue on: Decision Support Systems in Commerce, Logistics and Transportation
Using Kanos model to incorporate Six Sigma analysis in customer satisfaction measurement
by Yannis Politis, Evangelos Grigoroudis
Abstract: The Six Sigma approach has been well recognized as an important tool for continuous improvement and business excellence. It is a statistical concept that analyzes a process in terms of defects and can be used in order to measure the probability that companies can manufacture or produce any given unit of a product (or service) with zero defects. While many companies have adopted the concept of Six Sigma and zero defects in manufacturing processes few have extended it to customer satisfaction. Six Sigma can be used to measure the number of dissatisfied customers (defects) and can constitute a tool for developing strategies to improve customer satisfaction. Since sigma level can be used as a measure of the number of dissatisfied customers, it can be assumed that there is a direct relationship between satisfaction ratings and sigma levels. However, higher sigma levels for certain attributes do not necessarily translate to correspondingly higher customer satisfaction scores, while some attributes with higher satisfaction scores may not have a very high sigma level. This can be due to the different importance given by customers to the satisfaction criteria or their expectations on a set of quality characteristics. The main goal of this paper is to incorporate the concept of Six Sigma analysis in customer satisfaction measurement by introducing the principles of Kanos customer satisfaction model in order to derive important information for the selection of strategic actions. The proposed approach has been implemented in a real case study concerning the evaluation of customer satisfaction from Greek mobile service providers.
Keywords: Six Sigma; Customer Satisfaction; MUSA Method; Kano’s Model; Mobile Service Providers.
A Multicriteria Decision Support Approach for Redesigning e-Learning Systems
by Christos Kytagias, Yannis Psaromiligkos, George Dimakos
Abstract: In this paper we present a decision support approach for redesigning e-learning systems through the analysis of students' preferential structures. Our approach supports instructional designers to take decisions during the redesign process of an e-learning system by analyzing the students' preferential structures in the following dimensions: (a) the dimension of students' learning behavior (b) the dimension of students' learning performance and (c) the dimension of students' feedback. Our approach is based on a new method from the domain of Multicriteria Decision Making that provides weights of individuals' preferences which become input in a clustering process that determines groups of preferences among students. Based on these clusters we analyze the other three dimensions and we provide a framework for the decision making process capable to provide significant feedback for the redesign of the e-learning system. A case study is also described of the application of our approach in a real course.
Keywords: Multicriteria decision support approach; redesign e-learning systems; Weights Assessment through Prioritization (WAP); e-Learning Systems; analyzing students’ preferences; learning analytics.