Forthcoming and Online First Articles

International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics

International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics (IJCEE)

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International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics (11 papers in press)

Regular Issues

  • A bibliometric survey of macroeconomic topics in agent-based models   Order a copy of this article
    by Emiliano Alvarez 
    Abstract: In recent decades, the analysis of economies and their different sectors has intensified through simulations based on agent-based models (ABM). This is especially relevant for macroeconomics, since these methodologies allow us to analyse macroeconomic phenomena from actions and the interaction between individuals. In this article, a bibliometric analysis of ABMs in macroeconomics is briefly shown from the information gathered in the databases of the Web of Science (WOS) and Scopus. The main results of this work show that ABMs have analysed a wide spectrum of the most relevant topics in macroeconomics. There is a greater emphasis on credit crisis and financial instability, explained by the possibilities of this type of implementation to simulate network effects. These works are concentrated in a few research centers, mainly in Europe. In recent years, the agenda of topics to be addressed has grown, as well as the possibilities of a multidisciplinary agenda.
    Keywords: agent-based model; ABM; economics; macroeconomics; bibliometric analysis; complex system.

  • Determinants of government bond returns: an Indian experience   Order a copy of this article
    by Muhammadriyaj Faniband, Pravin Jadhav 
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic factors and non-macroeconomic factors on government bond returns in India using quantile regression methodology and the monthly dataset from April 2010 to May 2022. This paper produces a new dataset of three government bonds indices which include the top 20 and top 5 bonds and Treasury Bills (T-Bill). We are the first to document the following results. First, the top 20 and top 5 traded bonds have less sensitivity to the exchange rates. Second, inflation has a negligible impact on the top 20 and T-Bills. Third, all three bonds are significantly affected by interest rates. Fourth, the effect of geopolitical risk is significant on T-Bills. Firth, economic policy uncertainty and volatility do not affect bond returns. Sixth, the Nifty has a significant positive impact on the top 20 and top 5 bonds. Our results are useful for investors, portfolio managers and policymakers.
    Keywords: macroeconomic; non-macroeconomic; government bond; bond returns; quantile regression; India.

  • Worker occupational skills and unemployment duration: a competing-risks econometric approach   Order a copy of this article
    by Ahmed Wassal Elroukh 
    Abstract: This paper explains differences in unemployment duration among unemployed workers by differences in their skills, using the unemployed workers’ previous occupation and education level to capture their skills. I use the cumulative incidence approach from the statistics literature, which is a better alternative to the standard survival econometric methods in cases of competing risks. In addition to showing that the standard survival econometric methods are biased, I find that the higher the unemployed worker is on the skill ladder based on their previous occupation, the faster their transition rate to a full-time job. An extra year of education has a positive effect on reducing unemployment duration. Those with a bachelor’s degree tend to have the shortest employment duration among all unemployed individuals. However, the impact of education on transitioning from unemployment to a full-time job is less pronounced the higher the unemployed worker’s previous occupation is on the skill ladder.
    Keywords: human capital; unemployment; competing risks; worker skills; duration analysis.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2024.10062964
     
  • Nonlinear autoregressive with exogeneous input neural network time series model performance: bitcoin price prediction   Order a copy of this article
    by Nurazlina Abdul Rashid, Mohd Tahir Ismail 
    Abstract: There are over 10,000 listed cryptocurrencies, bitcoin has become the most used cryptocurrency at present. This research’s aim is to establish the different dynamic time series architectures of nonlinear autoregressive having exogenous input (NARX) and nonlinear input output (NIO) to forecast the bitcoin price as well as compare their performance. Furthermore, this study attempts to combine the different number of inputs, hidden nodes, and time delay to assess the social media attribute (X) and bitcoin price (Y) past value impact in each model. The results show that all model architectures NARX and NIO with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation training algorithm have a significant relationship between inputs and output. That means social dominance, social volume, and weighted social sentiment have a relationship and effect on price except for model 3 with architecture NIO-1-5-1 (d = 1) and NIO 1-10-1 (d = 2). This research is significant because the results of this study will help traders and investors reduce risk and increase returns.
    Keywords: bitcoin; cryptocurrency; price prediction; nonlinear autoregressive with exogeneous input; NARX; neural network time series; dynamic nonlinear; social media; social dominance.

Special Issue on: ICOAE2023 Applied Economics and Competition

  • Minimum wage as the determinant of productivity in EU countries   Order a copy of this article
    by Jana Kopecká, Lenka Viskotová, David Hampel 
    Abstract: When introducing and setting minimum wages, primarily to reduce poverty and avoid undesirable phenomena in the labour market, it is necessary to monitor the impact on various aspects of the real economy. This paper focuses on demonstrating the positive impact of nominal minimum wage growth on productivity in EU countries. A cluster analysis is used to divide countries into two distinguished clusters. Using panel regression, the effect of a minimum wage is found to be significant and positive. To rule out spurious regressions and to demonstrate the robustness of the performed analyses, appropriate covariates are included in the models, different forms of productivity are modelled, and the models are also estimated independently for each cluster.
    Keywords: cluster analysis; company production process; EU27; human capital; labour costs; low-wage employees; minimum wage; productivity of labour; panel regression model; training of employees.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2024.10062965
     

Special Issue on: Health Economics and Econometrics

  • Financial problems and self-reported health status: an analysis for selected European countries   Order a copy of this article
    by Margherita Giannoni 
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relation between financial difficulties and self-reported health status for adult individuals living in France, Italy and the UK. A set of random effects Probit models is estimated for the probability of reporting poor physical health status, chronic conditions, and limitations in daily life using Eurostat-EU- SILC 2010-2014 longitudinal data for France, Italy, and the UK. All estimates are obtained after controlling for demographic, geographic and socio-economic, as well as for measures of households’ over- indebtedness and housing tenure status individual characteristics. To deal with the potential endogeneity of the indebtedness-health relationship, Recursive Bivariate random parameters Probit models are estimated. Over-indebtedness showed the largest effect among all economic determinants of health. It is important to protect individuals’ health status during economic recessions by supporting households in financial difficulties to meet their end needs in the short term and by improving access to home ownership.
    Keywords: Financial problems; health inequalities; health disparities; econometrics; over-indebtedness and health; housing and health inequalities.

  • Procuring medical devices: evidence from Italian public tenders   Order a copy of this article
    by Vincenzo Atella, Francesco Decarolis 
    Abstract: The public procurement of medical devices is increasingly relying on auction mechanisms to move toward more transparent procedures and to promote competition between suppliers in a market where the quality of the products matters enormously. An improper auction design could lead to inefficient outcomes, such as a market with higher-than-optimal prices, or lower-than-optimal quality. Based on Italian public tender data, we present new evidence on the performance of the public tenders to procure orthopaedic prosthesis for hips, knees and shoulders. Focusing on three main outcomes, the number of participants, the presence of a single firm bidding and the winning rebate, for the first time we describe how features related to the tender, hospital, region and bidders’ competition all contribute to explain the functioning of the procurement auctions. The evidence we obtain can meaningfully help policy makers in designing and implementing better public procurement systems.
    Keywords: procurement auctions; medical devices; orthopaedic prosthesis; tender characteristics; Italy.

  • Technical efficiency in Irish public hospitals: a multi-output distance function SFA approach   Order a copy of this article
    by Niall Devitt, Marta Zieba, Declan Dineen 
    Abstract: This paper estimates output-oriented technical efficiency (TE) for 37 acute public hospitals in Ireland using monthly panel data for the years 2017-2018. To allow an accurate estimation of multi-output production technology, we utilise a trans-logarithmic output distance function (ODF) and apply the true random-effects (TRE) stochastic frontier model which accounts for both transient and persistent inefficiency. The findings indicate that Irish hospitals operate with an average short-run efficiency score of 0.93-0.94, whereas the persistent efficiency is 0.90. Furthermore, all input elasticities are positive but the returns to scale are decreasing. Inpatient discharges account for the highest output elasticity and the highest marginal rate of transformation. While the hospital model-type increases the level of output in hospitals, the share of emergency patients negatively affects the hospitals production. Moreover, the length of stay is an important contributor to hospitals inefficiency and medium-sized hospitals with 200 to 400 beds are the most efficient hospital units.
    Keywords: hospitals; technical efficiency; TE; output distance function; ODF; true random-effects; TRE; SFA; efficiency determinants; Ireland.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2022.10051477
     
  • Might low-protein diet for chronic kidney disease patients be successful A case study with the application of a random effects ordered probit model.   Order a copy of this article
    by Lara Gitto, Valeria Cernaro, Guido Gembillo, Alfredo Laudani, Daniela Metro, Domenico Santoro 
    Abstract: A low-protein diet (LPD) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients delays the natural progression towards end-stage renal disease. The identification of the factors that guarantee patients adherence to the diet may help physicians to provide a better assistance as well as improving patients quality of life. Fifty-one patients following a LPD were asked to assess their satisfaction with the diet, difficulties in complying with the nutritional regime and if they felt their health had improved. A random effect ordered probit model, whose dependent variable is patients perceived health states (better, unchanged, worse) following the diet was estimated. After six months, 49% of patients stated that their conditions improved. Age, gender and number of comorbidities had an impact on the probability to report worse health conditions. The results emphasise the importance of an appropriate nutritional regime for CKD patients and signal the need to design support programs to promote adherence.
    Keywords: chronic kidney disease; CKD; low-protein diet; LPD; random effects ordered probit model; promoting adherence.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2023.10056058
     
  • The role of home healthcare in reducing hospital readmissions and costs in patients with acute myocardial infarction   Order a copy of this article
    by Irina Mozhaeva, Juris Barzdins 
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to examine the causal effects of post-discharge home healthcare services on hospital readmissions and public inpatient expenditure in the older myocardial infarction patient cohort. We employ individual-level administrative healthcare data and apply the dynamic difference-in-differences approach to estimate the contemporaneous and post-intervention causal effects of homecare. The results suggest that post-acute home healthcare provided to myocardial infarction survivors has a strong prolonged negative (i.e., favourable) effect on the probability of hospital readmissions and related costs. The patterns of the post-intervention effect point to considerable health improvements in patients referred to domiciliary care compared to their counterparts discharged with self-care. The indicated benefits of home healthcare provide grounds for reconsidering current eligibility criteria of this public program and expanding its coverage in the myocardial infarction patient cohort.
    Keywords: home healthcare; acute myocardial infarction; readmissions; public inpatient expenditure; average treatment effect; ATE.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2024.10061909
     
  • Is the European refugee crisis a potential threat to public health? Evidence from Italy   Order a copy of this article
    by Jayanta Bhattacharya, Giorgia Marini 
    Abstract: We examine the impact of both disembarkations (the raw number of disembarked people) and integrated refugees (the number of disembarked people identified as asylum seekers and integrated in the country) on a broad set of infectious diseases and healthcare expenditure, respectively on a panel of 23 (1998-2020) and 14 years (2005-2018) for 20 Italian regions. We find a statistically significant and clinically meaningful correlation between refugee influx (measured as the number of disembarked people) and some diseases. These results pose some important questions on screening and prevention, costs associated with them and changes to the local epidemiology. Moreover, as regions with higher refugee influx experienced higher healthcare expenditure in the year the refugee influx occurred, a sustained refugee influx may have an impact on healthcare costs, which may raise a problem of sustainability of the national healthcare system.
    Keywords: refugees; infectious diseases; healthcare expenditure; public health; Italy.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2024.10061910