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International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics

 

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International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics (31 papers in press)

 

Regular Issues

 

  • The Model Confidence Set package for R   Order a copy of this article
    by Mauro Bernardi, Leopoldo Catania 
    Abstract: This paper presents the R package MCS which implements the Model Confidence Set (MCS) procedure for model comparison. The MCS procedure consists on a sequence of tests which permits to build a set of "superior" models, where the null hypothesis of Equal Predictive Ability (EPA) is not rejected at a certain confidence level. The EPA statistic test is calculated for an arbitrary loss function, meaning that we could test models on various aspects, such as for example, punctual forecasts and density evaluation. The relevance of the package is shown using an example which aims at illustrating in details the use of the provided functions. The example compares the ability of different models belonging to the GARCH family to predict large financial losses. Codes for reproducibility purposes are also reported.rn
    Keywords: MCS; model choice; R; VaR.

  • Testing the validity of instruments in an exactly identified equation   Order a copy of this article
    by Marco Ventura 
    Abstract: Whenever the number of instruments equals the number of endogenous variables testing the validity of the instruments is not a feasible task. Based on recent econometric developments (Lewbel, 2012), this article aims at spreading among applied economists and econometricians an empirical strategy to overcome this setback, thus sidestepping the exact identification problem.
    Keywords: instrumental variables; exact identification; overidentifying test; HansenSargan test; endogeneity.

  • Revisiting Kellys Version of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index   Order a copy of this article
    by George Djolov 
    Abstract: This communication looks at Kellys proposed formulation of the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, which has received some attention in the economic and management fields as a promising method to improve the measurement of market concentration by supposedly taking the skewness of market shares into account in the course of the indexs computation. It is found that this is not the case, and suggestions are made as to how the formulation could be aligned to its intended aim as originally proposed.
    Keywords: Herfindahl-Hirschman index; Relative variability.

  • Designing Kenyas First Generation Revenue Allocation Among Counties Formula with Imperfect Data: An Application of Response Surface Methodology   Order a copy of this article
    by Moses Muse Sichei 
    Abstract: This paper investigates the design of Kenyas first generation formula for sharing of revenue among 47 counties in the face of imperfect data and highly politicised issue of historical injustices in the past fiscal dispensation of a centralised system of government. We show that with limited quality data at sub-national level, an innovative loss function in a response surface methodology offers an appropriate platform to generate initial weights of fiscal need factors that not only ensure redistributive justice and equity but are also perceived to be objective and fair by different political interest groups.
    Keywords: Revenue allocation formula; fiscal decentralisation; intergovernmental fiscal transfer system; response surface methodology; county governments; simulation; Kenya.

  • Assessment of R&D and its impact on Indian manufacturing industries   Order a copy of this article
    by Chandrima Sikdar, Kakali Mukhopadhyay 
    Abstract: An important source of productivity growth, technological change and hence increased welfare of a country is Research and Development (R&D). Thus, it is absolutely important to develop a countrys R&D sector. However, developing countries have traditionally relied largely on import of technologies from developed countries, rather than domestic R&D for driving their technological change. India too has been no exception. But, like any other developing country, India too needs to make continuous investment either to adopt foreign technology or to develop its own capacities via R&D activities. Presently, India's R&D expenditure is merely 2.1per cent of total global expenditure. Against this backdrop, the present study computes elasticity of industry-level TPF with respect to R&D content of intermediates, both domestic and foreign, for industries in India. The results show that R&D stocks embodied in intermediates have contributed to productivity growth in these industries. Particularly, noteworthy is this elasticity for low R&D industries.
    Keywords: Domestic R& D; Foreign R&D; International integration; Total factor productivity; India; Industry; Input-output; Intermediate inputs.

  • A robust generalised maximum entropy estimator for ill-posed estimation problems   Order a copy of this article
    by Graeme Doole 
    Abstract: The generalised maximum entropy (GME) estimator provides a flexible means of information recovery from ill-posed estimation problems. However, coefficient estimates are sensitive to the exogenous support bounds defined for coefficient and error terms. This paper describes a new estimator that identifies informative support bounds, prior to the implementation of GME regression. These bounds are estimated using interval-valued mathematical programming in a way that is data-based, replicable, and robust. The superiority of the new estimator over various alternatives is demonstrated with a series of non-trivial Monte Carlo simulations involving different degrees of multicollinearity, sample sizes, and error structures.
    Keywords: Maximum entropy; support bounds; ill-posed problems; multicollinearity; low sample size; interval-valued optimisation.

  • Beyond Equilibrium: Revisiting Two-Sided Markets from an Agent-Based Modeling Perspective   Order a copy of this article
    by Torsten Heinrich, Claudius Grabner 
    Abstract: Two-sided markets are an important aspect of today's economies. Yet, the attention they have received in economic theory is limited, mainly due to methodological constraints of conventional approaches: two-sided markets quickly lead to non-trivial dynamics that would require a computational approach, as analytical models quickly become intractable. One approach to this problem is to opt for models that operate on an aggregated level, abstracting from most of the (micro-level) causes of these non-trivial dynamics. Here we revisit a well-known equilibrium model by Rochet and Tirole of two-sided markets that has taken this approach. Analyzing the model from an agent-based perspective, however, reveals several inconsistencies and implicit assumptions of the original model. This, together with the highly implausible assumptions that are required to make the model analytically tractable, limits its explanatory power significantly and motivates an alternative approach. The agent-based model we propose allows us to study the phenomenon of two-sided markets in a more realistic and adequate manner: Not only are we able to compare different decision making rules for the providers, we are also able to study situations with more than two providers. Thus, our model represents a first step towards a more realistic and policy-relevant study of two-sided markets.
    Keywords: Two-sided markets; Network externalities; Agent-based modeling; Simulation; Heuristic decision making; Reinforcement learning; Satisficing; Differential evolution; Evolutionary economics; Market structure; IT economics; Equilibrium dynamics.

  • Geographical dynamics of knowledge flows. Descriptive statistics on inventor network distance and patent citation graphs in the pharmaceutical industry.   Order a copy of this article
    by Ben Vermeulen 
    Abstract: In the knowledge-based geography of innovation literature, there are two opposing claims on the spatio-temporal pattern in knowledge flows over the course of a technological trajectory. The first claim is that, after the breakthrough, externalities stimulate agglomeration of specialized firms and thus cause the incremental inventions, extensions, and adaptations to take place progressively localized. The second claim is that, after the breakthrough, progressive codification and technological crystallization facilitates absorption and collaboration over greater distances. In this study, forward citation graphs of breakthrough patents are constructed and enriched with the NUTS3/ TL3 locations of the inventors. These forward citation graphs are subsequently used to study these claims and several more specific claims on co-inventor network distances and distances of groups of inventors across patent citations. Apart from obtaining support for existing claims, the study also reveals several distinct, more complex spatio-temporal patterns. Notably, it is found that, early on in technological trajectories, inventors generally collaborate mostly locally, yet cite knowledge sources found more remotely. Later on in technological trajectories, inventors collaborate over greater distances, yet cite more local knowledge sources. Conclusively, there is progressive globalization of inventor networks, whereby knowledge sources are used increasingly locally in follow-up inventions.
    Keywords: inventor network; forward citation graph; patent analysis; geographical dynamics; spatial analysis; knowledge-based; geography of innovation; descriptive statistics.

  • Gender dimension of migration decisions in Ghana: The reinforcing role of anticipated welfare of climatic effect   Order a copy of this article
    by Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah, Victoria N. Sam, Evelyne Nyathira Kihiu 
    Abstract: The concept of migration has been a male phenomenon in time past, however, there has been a change in events as females are gradually gaining dominance in migration patterns in recent times. Using nationwide survey data this paper investigates the determinants of internal migration decisions for males and females in Ghana. We examined whether there is any significant differences in how climate elements together with anticipated welfare gains and socio-economic factors explain internal migration decision of males and females. We find some variations in the determinants of migration decisions for males and female, though these decisions are significantly affected by anticipated welfare gain, socio-economic factors and climate conditions. We observed that females respond more to climate or environmental elements than males. Moreover, the effect of climate on migration decisions for both males and females is reinforced by anticipated welfare gain.
    Keywords: Climate; environment; males; females; migration; Heckman two-stage; Ghana.

  • Insurance risk capital and risk aggregation: Bivariate copula approach   Order a copy of this article
    by Hanene Mejdoub, Mounira BEN ARAB 
    Abstract: The current paper discusses the risk aggregation issue using copula theory in the sphere of the insurance industry. In this context, a flexible modelling of the dependence structure for non-life insurance risks is considered. The aim of the modelling is to assess the impact of dependence structure among losses on the total risk capital estimation measured by the Value-at-Risk. Using numerical illustrations based on a Tunisian insurance company, we use first various copula families that can capture the dependencies across losses that are derived from four lines of business. To obtain the appropriate bivariate copula, we perform a goodness-of-fit analysis. Then, based on the Monte-Carlo simulation, the total risk capital is deduced by applying the Value at risk on the aggregate loss distributions. We also conduct a comparative analysis between the various types of the copulas. Our findings reveal that there is a regular impact on the capital requirement estimation indicating that a static approach ignoring the real dependencies between different risks can systematically lead to an overestimation of the total capital requirement.
    Keywords: Non-life insurance; Risk aggregation; Value-at-Risk; Dependence structure; Bivariate Copulas; Monte-Carlo Simulation.

  • Research Note: Futures Hedging with Stochastic Volatility: A New Method   Order a copy of this article
    by Moawia Alghalith, Christos Floros 
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present a continuous-time dynamic model of futures hedging. In particular, we extend the theoretical and empirical literature (e.g. Alghalith, 2016; Alghalith et al., 2015; and Corsi et al., 2008) in several important ways. First, we present a theory-based model. A significant empirical contribution is that we do not need data for the basis risk or the spot price. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to assume that the volatility of futures price is stochastic and thus to estimate the volatility of volatility of futures price. Using daily futures data from the S&P500 index, we calculate an average daily volatility as well as the volatility of volatility of futures prices. We recommend that the managers of the futures market should report the stochastic volatility of the futures price (and its volatility), in addition to the traditional volatility.
    Keywords: stochastic volatility; volatility of volatility; futures; hedging.

  • Earnings Management to Avoid Losses and Earnings Declines in Croatia   Order a copy of this article
    by Stavros Degiannakis, George Giannopoulos, Salma Ibrahim, Ivana Rozic 
    Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence that Croatian companies manage reported earnings to avoid losses and earnings declines. Specifically, we find that the cross-sectional distribution of scaled earnings and changes in earnings show high frequencies of small positive earnings and small increases in earnings while the frequencies of small losses and small decreases in earnings are less frequent. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these discontinuities are likely due to discretionary accruals. We examine the frequency distribution of reported earnings after removing discretionary accruals and find that the cross sectional distributions of non-discretionary scaled earnings shows lower frequencies of small positive earnings and higher frequencies of small negative earnings. Additionally, the cross sectional distribution of non-discretionary change in earnings demonstrates mixed frequencies of non-discretionary changes in earnings. Overall, this paper adds new empirical evidence to the benchmark-beating literature by demonstrating international evidence of earnings management around zero earnings and zero earnings changes benchmarks.
    Keywords: Earnings management; Earnings Declines; Earnings Losses; Discretionary Accruals; Earnings frequency distribution.

  • Depth, tightness, and resiliency as market liquidity dimensions: evidence from the Polish stock market   Order a copy of this article
    by Joanna Olbrys, Michal Mursztyn 
    Abstract: Liquidity in a financial market is not a one-dimensional variable but it includes several dimensions. The main aim of the paper is an empirical analysis of market liquidity dimensions on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). We investigate market depth, market tightness, and market resiliency for fifty-three WSE-listed companies divided into three size groups. The high-frequency data covers the period from January 3, 2005 to June 30, 2015. The additional goal is a robustness analysis of the obtained results with respect to the whole sample period and three adjacent subsamples, each of equal size: pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. Order ratio (OR) is employed as a proxy of market depth. Market tightness is approximated by using relative spread (RS). Market resiliency is estimated by utilizing realized spread (RealS) which is a temporary component of bid/ask effective spread. As we expected, the empirical results indicate that OR values do not depend on a firm size, while RS estimations are slightly higher for small companies. RealS proxy values are positive for almost all stocks, except for isolated cases. Moreover, the results turn out to be robust to the choice of the sample for all groups of assets.
    Keywords: dimensions of market liquidity; market depth; market tightness; market resiliency; Global Financial Crisis; Polish stock market.

  • Energy consumption and gross domestic product in the Philippines: an application of maximum entropy bootstrap framework   Order a copy of this article
    by Kenneth Barroga, Agustina Tan-Cruz 
    Abstract: We employ the maximum entropy bootstrap (MEB) framework to provide convincing evidence on the energy consumption (EC) and gross domestic product (GDP) nexus between 1975 and 2010 in the Philippines. We also perform a cointegration analysis and Granger causality test of the data to illustrate the advantages of MEB approach. This paper shows more accurate inference in comparison to conventional hypothesis tests based on asymptotic theory. Without employing MEB, the result of causality is very sensitive to a very small sample size and time period chosen that made the results inconsistent. Therefore, MEB framework is robust to time period chosen and even in a very small sample size. The analysis shows no evidence of a causal relationship between EC and GDP in the Philippines. The findings emphasise the fact that the Philippines is a less developed country and predominantly agrarian-based; thus, energy dependent.
    Keywords: bootstrap; cointegration; EC; energy consumption; GDP; granger causality; HDR; highest density region; MEB; maximum entropy bootstrap.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2018.10007876
     
  • Price transmission along the Greek food supply chain in a dynamic panel framework: empirical evidence from the implementation of decoupling   Order a copy of this article
    by Anthony N. Rezitis, Dimitris N. Pachis 
    Abstract: This study investigates the price transmission mechanism between the producer and the consumer of the Greek food market while taking into consideration the decoupling policy scheme of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union. The empirical analysis uses the panel vector error correction model for the empirical investigation of the price mechanism. The dynamics of the price mechanism are evaluated in the short and long run with causality tests and impulse responses. The results show that the producer does not respond to long-run deviations from the equilibrium. Moreover, a shock in the producer or the consumer prices results in own disequilibrium effects that are quickly decayed and disequilibrium spillover effects from one price level to the other that take time to decay. Finally, the implementation of the decoupling scheme seems to have benefited the consumer more rather than the producer in mitigating his responses to own and cross-price shocks.
    Keywords: prices; panel VEC; asymmetries; decoupling; Greece.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2018.10007879
     
  • Clairvoyant targeted attack on complex networks   Order a copy of this article
    by Giovanna Ferraro, Antonio Iovanella 
    Abstract: Complex networks' resilience against attacks represents a crucial issue in terms of network structure integrity. We investigate the effect of removing nodes on the network diameter in the case of a simultaneous targeted attack and sequential targeted attack. The analysis has been implemented on several network instances, taking into account different centrality measures and clustering coefficients values. Empirical networks have also been observed to compare the effects of the two removal schemes. According to classical literature, we assume that the network attacker has a wide-ranging knowledge of the system. It can be defined as clairvoyant since it knows, a priori, of all the characteristics of the problem's instances. This awareness is not always applicable when real networks are characterised by a dynamic environment. Hence, we distinguish between clairvoyant and non-clairvoyant attacks.
    Keywords: complex networks; resilience; simultaneous targeted attack; sequential targeted attack.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2018.10007881
     
  • medsem: a Stata package for statistical mediation analysis   Order a copy of this article
    by Mehmet Mehmetoglu 
    Abstract: The Stata package medsem provides a post-estimation command testing mediational hypotheses using Baron and Kenny's (1986) approach modified by Iacobucci et al. (2007) as well as an alternative approach proposed by Zhao et al. (2010) after estimating the concerned mediational model with the built-in sem command of Stata. The primary benefit of medsem is that it can contribute to conducting a proper and complete mediational analysis based on even very complex models (including observed and/or latent variables and with multiple mediators) due to the simultaneous estimation capability of structural equation modelling (SEM) technique.
    Keywords: Stata; mediation; indirect effects; Sobel; Baron and Kenny.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2018.10007883
     
  • Fiscal multipliers and macroeconomic performance in the case of Slovakia and Hungary   Order a copy of this article
    by Martin Kameník, Anna Ruščáková, Jozefína Semančíková 
    Abstract: The aim of the paper is to estimate and assess the impact of fiscal policy shocks on gross domestic product (GDP) in Slovakia and Hungary as the EU and V4 members and to compare the results of how fiscal policy affects the economy with euro compared with the economy with its own currency. The paper is based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) model to compare the impacts of fiscal shocks in government expenditure and government revenues on real Slovak and Hungarian economy and identify possible differences. Government expenditure shock has a short-term positive effect on Slovak and Hungarian GDP, too. Also, the response of GDP to a single shock in government revenues has an immediate negative impact in Hungary in contrast to Slovakia with the positive response at the beginning. Moreover, the findings support that government expenditure has more significant impact on GDP than in the case of government revenues.
    Keywords: fiscal policy; fiscal multipliers; VAR; vector autoregressive; GDP; gross domestic product; government expenditure; government revenues; single shock; EU; V4; Slovakia; Hungary.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2018.10007882
     
  • Testing for multi-fractality and efficiency in selected sovereign bond markets: a multi-fractal detrended moving average (MF-DMA) analysis   Order a copy of this article
    by Selçuk Bayraci 
    Abstract: This study examines the multifractality and relative efficiency in sovereign bond markets, using the multifractal detrended moving average (MF-DMA) approach to quantify the degree of multifractality in the international sovereign bond yields. We use the daily values of the 2-year maturity government bond yields for 12 countries between 2003 and 2014 for empirical analysis. Our results document that all bond markets show multifractal characteristics in various levels. High degree of multifractality is seen in the Spanish, Portuguese and Italian bond markets while low multifractality features belong to the Canadian and the US bond market. The source of multifractality is mainly due to the structure of the bond markets where the recent Eurozone debt crisis has manifested itself as extreme observations.
    Keywords: sovereign bond markets; relative efficiency; multifractality.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2018.10007884
     
  • Minimisation of bias of Pearson correlation coefficient in presence of coincidental outliers   Order a copy of this article
    by Athanasios Tsagkanos 
    Abstract: It is well known that sample correlation coefficient is a significant statistical measure of linear comovement between variables. However, the distortion that is caused by 'coincidental outliers' is fairly large. For this reason, we suggest an alternative robust measure of correlation that obtains the lowest bias. We formally call this measure the bootstrap-based correlation coefficient. We show analytically that our measure exhibits lower bias with respect to classical estimator. We compare its performance both across the classical estimator and across the robust measures of Kim et al. (2015) applying Monte Carlo simulations. The results verify the outperformance of the bootstrap-based correlation coefficient relatively to other measures, in presence of 'coincidental outliers'.
    Keywords: correlation coefficient; coincidental outliers; bias; bootstrap.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2018.10007871
     

Special Issue on: ICOAE2016 Applied Economics

  • The Public Sector Wage Premium Puzzle   Order a copy of this article
    by Yi Wang, Peng Zhou 
    Abstract: This paper investigates the public sector wage premium in the UK over the first decade of the 21st century using both econometric and economic modelling methods. A comprehensive literature review is conducted to summarise the four popular types of methods adopted by the traditional microeconometric studies. Application of these methods results in an estimated public sector wage premium equal to 6.5%. Indirect inference is then introduced as a new method of testing and estimating a microfounded economic model. All four types of econometric methods can be used as auxiliary models to summarise the data features, based on which the distance between the actual data and the model-simulated data is assessed. The selection bias can also be tested in a straightforward way under indirect inference.
    Keywords: Public Sector Wage Premium; Microfoundation; Propensity Score Matching; Indirect Inference.

  • Causality among CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Italy.   Order a copy of this article
    by Pavlos Stamatiou, Nikolaos Dritsakis 
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between CO2 emissions (carbon dioxide emissions), energy consumption and economic growth in Italy, using annual data covering the period 1960-2011. The unit root tests results indicated that the variables are not stationary in levels but in their first differences. Subsequently, the Johansen cointegration test showed that there is a cointegrated vector between the examined variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used in order to find the causality relations among the variables. The empirical results of the study revealed that both in the short and long run there is a strong unidirectional causality relation between economic growth and CO2 emissions with direction from economic growth to CO2 emissions. Finally, the impulse response functions indicated that a reduction in CO2 emissions has a positive effect on energy consumption, while it causes a decrease in economic growth.
    Keywords: Carbon emissions; Energy consumption; Economic Growth; Cointegration Test; Vector Error Correction; Causality; Variance Decomposition; Impulse response analysis; Italy.

  • Reconsidering the relationship between foreign direct investment and growth   Order a copy of this article
    by Carlos Encinas-Ferrer, Eddie Villegas-Zermeño 
    Abstract: During many years it was assumed that foreign direct investment (FDI) is a variable that explains economic growth (EG). The reason for this is that as investment (I) is the dynamic element of gross domestic product (GDP), therefore, FDI, as part of total investment, should be also the independent variable and GDP growth the dependent one. Recent studies in many countries have shown by the contrary that there is not such a causal relationship, that a consistent increase of GDP is in many cases the attractor of FDI and in other cases there is no causal link between FDI and GDP. In our investigation we include the study of longer time series -coincident with the spread of globalization- for Mexico, China, Brazil and the Republic of Korea. It is our hypothesis that there is not a causal relationship between FDI, as the independent variable, and GDP grow as the dependent one in the selected countries and that this is in part due to the fact that FDI is a small proportion of total (national and foreign) direct investment and so its impact is reduced.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment; gross domestic product; economic growt; groos fixed capital formation.

Special Issue on: Coping with Uncertainty in Complex Socio-Economic Systems

  • Technology Diffusion of Industry 4.0: An Agent-Based Approach   Order a copy of this article
    by Martin Prause, Christina Gunther 
    Abstract: Governmental interventions, such as public policies and programs, play a vital role in innovation diffusion, particularly if the application area is heterogeneous, like the German federal high-tech approach of Industry 4.0. Interventions can thus inhibit market failure and negative externalities or disseminate the technology and promote positive externalities. To analyze the impact of governmental intervention, considering the particularities of the Industry 4.0 approach, an agent-based model is proposed, particularly to test the sensitivity of Industry 4.0 innovation diffusion speed and degree due to interventions such as promotion, educational support, technology networks (hubs), technology standardization, and financial aid among manufacturing SMEs in Germany. This article describes a conceptual model structured along the overview, design concept, and details framework. Grounding and calibration of input parameters and agent behavior are based on firm characteristics and adoption determinants (technology-organization-environment model) from survey data and Industry 4.0 case studies.
    Keywords: Agent-based Model; Industry 4.0; Innovation Diffusion; SME; Technology Adoption.

  • Forecasting Inflation in Tunisia during Instability: Using Dynamic Factors Model A two-step based procedure based on Kalman Fitler   Order a copy of this article
    by AMMOURI BILEL, TOUMI HASSEN, Fakhri ISSAOUI, ZITOUNA HABIB 
    Abstract: This work presents a forecasting inflation model using a monthly database. Conventional models that forecast inflation use a few macroeconomic variables. In the context of globalization and dependent economic world, models have to take into account a large amount of information. This model is the goal of recent research in various industrialized countries as well as developing ones. With the Dynamic Factors Model (DFM), the forecast values are closer to the actual inflation than those obtained from the conventional models in the short term. In our research, we devise the inflation into free and administered inflation and test the performance of the DFM under instability (before and after the revolution) in different types of inflation and trend inflation, namely administered and free inflation. Knowing that periods of instability are simultaneously the period of price liberalization of basic goods (2008) and the post-revolution period (2011-2017). We have found that the DFM with an instability factor leads to substantial forecasting improvements over the DFM without an instability factor in the period after the revolution.
    Keywords: Inflation forecasting; PCA; VAR; Dynamic Factors Model; Kalman Filter; Space-state; Instability factor.

  • Measuring Uncertainties: a Theoretical Approach   Order a copy of this article
    by Carolina Facioni, Isabella Corazziari, Filomena Maggino 
    Abstract: When our aim is to draw the possible developments of future events, we are faced with a practical obstacle. Indeed, we cannot have any empirical experience of the future. Have we, therefore, to be inferred that forecasting, exploring future or, better: exploring futures, or anticipating futures have not to be considered activities of a scientific kind? Answer to such a difficult question requires a multidisciplinary approach, where statistical models, methodology of social science and of course statistics and sociology as a whole - are enhanced in their ability to express the change - and sometimes the risk that the change itself implies. A great help in understanding complexity, and trends, comes from a method for multi-way data, based on the joint application of a factorial analysis and regression over time, called Dynamic Factor Analysis.
    Keywords: Incertainty measure; Futures Studies; DFA.

  • Career mobility of PhD holders in Social Sciences and Humanities: evidences from the POCARIM project   Order a copy of this article
    by Lucio Morettini, Emilia Primeri, Emanuela Reale, Antonio Zinilli 
    Abstract: The paper aims at investigating factors that could affect the likelihood of changing job of PhD holders in the fields of social sciences and humanities (SSH). We use data collected through a survey developed within the POCARIM project (funded by the EC under the EUFP7) in order to analyse variations in PhDs\' career paths in a longitudinal dimension: we consider the career of each agent as a whole and investigate what elements related to individual features can influence careers entropy in term of changes of sector and/or country.
    Keywords: Career mobility; PhD; Job market; Higher education; Career paths.

  • Do the Flexible Employment Arrangements Increase Job Satisfaction and Employee Loyalty? Evidence from Bayesian Networks and Instrumental Variables   Order a copy of this article
    by Eleftherios Giovanis 
    Abstract: This study explores the relationship between job satisfaction, employee loyalty and two types of flexible employment arrangements; teleworking and flexible timing. The analysis relies on data derived by the Workplace Employee Relations Survey (WERS) in 2004 and 2011. We apply the propensity score matching approach and least squares regressions. Furthermore, we employ the Bayesian Networks (BN) and Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) to confirm the causality between employment types explored and the outcomes of interest. Additionally, we propose an instrumental variables (IV) approach based on the BN framework. The results support that a positive causal effect from these employment arrangements on job satisfaction and employee loyalty is present.
    Keywords: Bayesian Networks; Directed Acyclic Graphs; Employee Loyalty; Employment Arrangements; Flexible Timing; Job Satisfaction; Teleworking; Workplace Employment Relations Survey.

  • On the Validity of Exclusion Restrictions in the Structural Multivariate Framework: a Monte Carlo Simulation   Order a copy of this article
    by Talel Boufateh 
    Abstract: This paper aims to examine the validity of identifying restrictions used in the Structural multivariate models. Whether we are under short-term identification approach and / or long term identification one, the scheme adopted implies the imposition of additional assumptions which usually take the form as exclusion restrictions. We believe however, that the value of a restriction is not necessarily equal to zero even if it expresses the lack of impact of a shock on a variable. We think that this lack of impact may reflect an effect asymptotically equal to zero and that the little nuance could be amplified with the model dynamics and affect the structural analysis. We have chosen to study this problem by using a Monte Carlo simulation and to examine the consequences of slipping of the identification restriction value. The results that emerge from this work confirm the sensitivity of variables' responses to change, even the slightest it may be, in the value of identification restrictions. Whatever the strength and elegance of the theory and the economic reasoning from which emanate the exclusion restrictions, precision measurements should be considered.
    Keywords: Exclusion restrictions; SVAR approach; Monte Carlo Simulation.

Special Issue on: Dynamics of and on Networks

  • Innovation cooperation in East and West Germany: A study on regional and technological impact   Order a copy of this article
    by Uwe Cantner, Alexander Giebler, Jutta Günther, Maria Kristalova, Andreas Meder 
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the impact of regional and technological innovation systems on innovation cooperation. We develop an indicator applicable to regions, which demonstrates the relative regional impact on innovation cooperation. Applying this method to German patent data, we find that regional differences in the degree of innovation cooperation do not only depend on the technology structure of a region but also on specific regional effects. High-tech oriented regions, whether east or west, are not automatically highly cooperative regions. East German regions have experienced a dynamic development of innovation cooperation since re-unification in 1990. Their cooperation intensity remains higher than in West German regions.
    Keywords: regional innovation system; technological innovation system; innovation cooperation; Germany.

  • Knowledge diffusion in formal networks The roles of degree distribution and cognitive distance   Order a copy of this article
    by Kristina Bogner, Matthias Mueller, Michael Schlaile 
    Abstract: Social networks provide a natural infrastructure for knowledge creation and exchange. In this paper we study the effects of a skewed degree distribution within formal networks on knowledge exchange and diffusion processes. To investigate how the structure of networks affects diffusion performance, we use an agent-based simulation model of four theoretical networks as well as an empirical network. Our results indicate an interesting effect: neither path length nor clustering coefficient are the decisive factors determining diffusion performance but the skewness of the link distribution is. Building on the concept of cognitive distance, our model shows that even in networks where knowledge can diffuse freely, poorly connected nodes are excluded from a joint learning in networks.
    Keywords: agent-based simulation; cognitive distance; degree distribution; direct project funding; Foerderkatalog; German energy sector; innovation networks; knowledge diffusion; publicly funded R&D projects; random networks; scale-free networks; simulation of empirical networks; skewness; small-world networks.