International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence (14 papers in press)
Collateral Effects of Digital Ethics Practices across Business and Society: Trends and Challenges
by Ananya Rajagopal
Abstract: Society and business have joint responsibility to govern the ethics. Digital marketing has become a cost-effective strategy for the emerging companies and has become a popular shopping place among the consumers. As the digital marketplace has grown parallel with the information technology, it has become vulnerable to piracy due to breach of ethics. Though, companies are spending a great deal of time and money to install codes of ethics in digital business through ethics training, compliance programs, and in-house watchdogs, there is still a long way to go on establishing the ethical behavior in the society. This paper critically examines the collateral effect of digital literacy on the society and business. It has been argued in the paper that the lack of digital ethics has caused serious implications on the business due to piracy and ethical breach.
Keywords: Digital marketing; ethics; digital literacy; piracy; and social implications.
Effect of Mobile Shopping Apps on Middle Age Consumers' Buying Behavior
by Ayushi Tewari, Madhvendra Misra
Abstract: Mobile commerce has nowadays become a popular internet marketing strategy which operates through various mobile devices. Mobile shopping and mobile banking are the two phenomenal shifts that have transcended the consumers attentions and interest towards online shopping. Both national players (flipkart, myntra, snapdeal) and international players (amazon, ebay) are working strategically in m-commerce business so as to increase their market share. Mobile apps are designed in such a way that they exclusively focus on increasing user engagement and make their experience easier. The aim of this research paper is to analyze the effect of mobile shopping apps on middle age consumers buying behavior. The results revealed the significant impact of mobile shopping apps on buying behavior of middle age consumers. Further it can be inferred that pre purchase services, transaction related services and satisfaction of middle age consumers are instrumental in determining the purchase intention of middle age consumers.
Keywords: Mobile shopping apps; middle age consumers; buying behavior; mobile commerce; internet marketing strategy; mobile devices; pre purchase services; transaction related services; satisfaction; purchase intention.
FORECASTING WITH LIMITED INTERMITTENT DATA: A METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK APPLICABLE TO NEWLY ESTABLISHED FIRMS
by Maria Chatzipanagioti
Abstract: Nowadays, the motivation for starting a new business in Greece is necessity. As the Greek economy is experiencing the eighth year of recession, there are many newly established SMEs striving to survive. Their main difficulty lies in forecasting demand, while having both limited and intermittent data. Although the literature provides several forecasting techniques for intermittent demand, most of them are not applicable in case of short demand history. This paper provides a methodological framework for intermittent demand forecasting applicable to newly established firms with limited demand data. The proposed quantitative decision support methodology is evaluated empirically and its usage is demonstrated through its application on real data of a newly established SME in Greece. The results demonstrate that the methodology can be used to forecast demand for products with limited intermittent data. Challenges concerning all stages of the methodology are discussed, while sensitivity analyses are conducted and interesting managerial insights are presented.
Keywords: forecasting; quantitative decision support methodology; methodological framework; new firm; intermittent demand; limited demand data; small and medium-sized enterprises; SMEs; economic crisis; economic recession; Greece.
Understanding the Sectors of Indian Economy for Portfolio Choice
by Jaydip Sen, Tamal Datta Chaudhuri
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to ascertain sectoral characteristics of stock market indices of India through time series decomposition. It is postulated that different sectors in an economy do not behave uniformly, and sectors differ from each other in terms of their trend pattern, their seasonal characteristics and also their randomness. Understanding companies by some specific set of fundamental parameters, leads to standardization and robs the companies of their individuality. Each company is distinct, and one of the sources of this distinctiveness stems from the sector to which it belongs. The R programming language is used for the study of the time series of indices of various sectors, and the decomposition is carried forward to individual stocks in that sector also. The proposed framework can be effectively used for portfolio formation and realignment. Based on our approach, we also provide a framework of forecasting of that can be applied on various sectors of the economy and also on individual stocks in the sectors. Results indicate that the forecasting framework is robust and provides a highly level of accuracy in forecasting.
Keywords: Time Series Decomposition; Trend; Seasonality; Random ;Forecasting; Holt Winters Forecasting Method; ARIMA; Auto Correlation;Auto Regression; Moving Average; Partial Auto Correlation; Portfolio Management.
Stock Composition of Mutual Funds and Fund Style: A Time Series Decomposition Approach towards Testing for Consistency
by Jaydip Sen
Abstract: In this paper, we present a generic approach for checking the consistency between the proclaimed style of a mutual fund and the actual fund composition. We use a method of time series decomposition of stock prices to ascertain whether their inclusion in a particular style of fund is justified. It has been our contention that some share prices have a strong trend component in their time series, some show seasonality, while some share prices exhibit strong random component. We have chosen a sample of eleven equity- based mutual funds of varying styles, from Indian financial market and analyzed whether the style of the fund matches with the stock composition of the fund. We feel that the retail investors, who buy into certain funds on the basic trust that fund managers have the requisite expertise, should know whether the portfolio matches what they promise. A detailed analysis of the results show that, while in majority of cases the actual allocation of funds is consistent with the corresponding fund style, there have been some notable deviations too.
Keywords: Mutual Fund; Time Series Decomposition; Trend; Seasonal; Random; R Programming Language; Non-parametric Statistical Tests.
The study of effective variables on capital structure
by Vahab Bashiri, Hamidreza Salehi, Mohsen Nowruzi, Aein Ghorbani Ghashghaeinejad, Mohsen Rezaei, Alireza Hamedi
Abstract: Capital structure decision is a challenging problem. The choice of optimal capital structure is very important for companys continuity and leads to survival in the competitive world. Some researchers have presented variety theories for recognize optimal capital structure and a number of them believe that financial flexibility affects on capital structure as well as firms are able to maximize the firm value through mobilize its financial resources.
So, due to importance of this matter, in this study MLP and RBF methods are used to review of the relationship between financial flexibility and capital structure of firms. We are using financial flexibility variables as input data and capital structure as output data.
Experimental results indicate that both of different sub models of NN (MLP and RBF) are good tools for predicting the outputs based on inputs and there is an effective relationship between financial flexibility and capital structure as well.
Keywords: MLP; RBF; Capital structure; Financial flexibility.
Appeals & Spiels: A Comparative Analysis on Alcohol Advertising in the U.S. and Ireland
by Amina Gibic, Vivek Natarajan, Kabir Sen
Abstract: The U.S. and Ireland vary in their policies and regulations regarding the alcohol industry. This study sought to see whether the consumption of alcoholic beverages, and alcohol companys appeals and target audiences varied among the two countries, as well.150 total alcohol commercials (75 from the U.S., 75 from Ireland), ranging from the year 2002 to the current year, were collected and analyzed. The brand, commercial name, appeal used (image, product, sex, or humor), type of alcoholic beverage promoted, and the audience targeted (young men ages 18-49, young women ages 18-49, and niche markets: craft beer, health conscious, sports fans) were observed and noted, as were ads explicitly targeting youth. Although appeal utilized and type of alcoholic beverage promoted did not vary significantly between the two countries, the target audiences by country varied significantly, as did target audience by type of alcoholic beverage. This study reveals how the similarities in alcohol advertisements contrast with the difference in policies and regulations among the U.S. and Ireland, thus bringing the varying levels of industry clout and influence between the two countries to light.
Keywords: Alcohol; selling proposition; comparative analysis; target audience; appeal; niche market; on-pitch advertising; pitchside advertisements.
Time taken to complete a meal: a distinctive study of full-service restaurants in India
by D.P. Sudhagar
Abstract: The present study aims to investigate the relationship between the number of people dining in a table and time taken to complete the meal in three different dinner settings in five-star hotel restaurants. For the purpose of the study, two five-star hotels which has a dinner setting with an all-day dining restaurant, speciality restaurant, and a rooftop restaurant were selected for the study. The customers of the selected restaurant were unobtrusively observed by the experts. Age and sex of the restaurant customers were not recorded. A significant positive relationship associated with the number of people dining in a table and the time taken to complete the meal in all the dinner setting. The time taken to complete the meal was longer in the rooftop restaurant and moderate in the speciality restaurant, whereas in all-day dining restaurant was a shorter one. The serving style of the food, ambience of the restaurant had an influence on the time taken to complete the meal. The results will enlighten the restaurant managers to understand the dining time relationship and the associated factors. The study results will help the waiters in planning up the service time of the food and beverage served in the restaurant. This is the first study conducted in the Indian context particularly in the five-star hotel restaurants. The valuable findings will help to formulate and to amend the existing meal serving technique to ensure the promptness of the service and to maximise the revenue generation.
Keywords: five-star hotel; meal duration; all-day dining restaurants; speciality restaurants; rooftop restaurant; group size; ordering type; ambiance; service style.
Perception and switch intention of rural customers towards organised retail
by Sunit Sharma, Tejinder Sharma, Purnendu Mandal
Abstract: With the opening of retail sector for corporate investment, Indian markets saw the emergence of organised retail formats. While urban customers exhibited immediate interest in this newer shopping experience, their rural counterparts were slower in switching over to the organised retail. In addition to the economic considerations, the reasons behind slower adaptation of the organised retail entailed cognitive and perceptual aspects as well. The paper identifies the perceptual aspects of the rural customers on switching towards the organised retail. Data has collected from 537 rural customers to study their perceptions and switch intentions towards organised retail. The study finds that the rural customers are showing preference to go to organised retail outlets to purchase products and services that offer higher value. Findings of the survey show that 'core value delivery' is the most significant predictor of purchase intention in rural market. Pre-purchase inducement and value enhancement are also other significant predictors of purchase intention.
Keywords: value perception; switching intention; rural customers; organised retail; core value delivery.
Brand passion and its implication on consumer behaviour
by Christine D'lima
Abstract: This paper tries to investigate the passion in literature and drives its way through theory where passion is a component of love and moves on to passion being a component of consumer behaviour in marketing, i.e., brand passion. Passion has been studied with regard to the intensity to love. This paper picks up the triangular theory of love by Sternberg (1986, 1997) to probe into the meaning of passion. While tracing this component the paper gradually progresses to how passion becomes a part of consumer behaviour and hence the passion extended to the brand. Thus, brand passion tantamount to the keenness, the fascination or even the fixation of a consumer for the beloved brand. Further, the author tries to outline a conceptual model with the antecedents to brand passion, i.e., loyalty, satisfaction and trust and the outcome of passion being word of mouth.
Keywords: passion; brand passion; trust; loyalty; word of mouth communication.
An examination of the interplay between country-of-origin, brand equity, brand preference and purchase intention toward global fashion brands
by Javad Khazaei Pool, Sobhan Asian, Ahmad Abareshi, Hamze Kazemi Mahyari
Abstract: This study aims to propose and empirically test a behavioural model of consumer perceptions of country-of-origin, brand equity, brand preference and purchase intention in the context of fashion brands in Iran. To provide a detailed understanding of customers' perceptions of purchase intention, a survey study was conducted. The research model is validated, and the developed hypotheses are tested using a structural equation model (SEM). Country-of-origin is shown to be positively associated with brand equity. Consistent with expectations, our results reveal that brand equity influences brand preference and purchase intention. Findings also support the hypothesised relationship between brand preference and purchase intention. The present research is one of the pioneer studies that highlight the importance of purchase intention with regard to fashion brands in promoting a luxury market. This study contributes to the literature by developing and testing a comprehensive research model using SEM and offers important guidelines to international marketers who are planning to introduce their fashion brands to the Iranian market.
Keywords: Country-of-origin; Brand equity; Brand preference; Purchase intention; Fashion brands.
Exploring the role of technological developments and open innovation in the survival of SMEs: an empirical study of Pakistan
by Masood Ul Hassan, Zeeshan Iqbal, Maimoona Malik, Muhammad Iftkhar Ahmad
Abstract: Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in terms of sustainable economic development. Therefore, the survival of this sector is highly important for every economy. This study theoretically and empirically explores the role of technological developments and open innovation (OI) on SME survival. The first part of this paper is based on library search and available literature on SMEs and the role technological innovations towards the flourishment of SME. Findings from this review shed some lights on the potential of social networking as part of online marketing. Furthermore, the researchers conducted a self-administrated questionnaire-based survey to empirically examine the conceptual framework. The empirical results revealed that the effect of online marketing via social media is more powerful and diverse due to its ability to reach more customers. In addition, open innovation is an effective and emerging tool in the success of SME.
Keywords: technological developments; open innovation; small and medium enterprises; SMEs; SMEs survival; Pakistan.
An empirical analysis to study the impact of marketing mix elements on overall quality of water purifiers: evidence from India
by Vikram Sharma, Vikas Gautam
Abstract: The paper presents the results of a study conducted in India that assesses the impact of marketing mix elements on overall quality perception of customers about water purifiers. The results of confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the factor structure of marketing mix elements (product, price, promotion and place). Moreover, multiple regression results showed that barring place, all other marketing mix elements viz. product, price, and promotion have positive significant impact on overall quality perception of customers. The sample comprised of 253 respondents.
Keywords: water purifiers; marketing mix elements; confirmatory factor analysis; CFA; correlation analysis; multiple regression analysis; India.
Capturing marketing information and marketing intelligence: ethical issues and concerns
by Pratap Chandra Mandal
Abstract: Companies require information and intelligence about customers to understand them, formulate strategies for them, and serve them better. Companies collect this information either by themselves or by appointing marketing research agencies who collect information on behalf of the companies. Collection of information sometimes becomes a challenge because customers hesitate to share personal information with companies. Also, customers worry about the way the shared information is used by companies. Customers are concerned about the safety, security, and the privacy of information. Companies should consider the above issues during data collection from customers and also during the usage of information. The paper discusses about the sensitive issue of intrusion on privacy of customers, ethics involved, responsibilities of marketing researchers regarding sensitive information shared by customers, possible misuse of the shared information, preventive measures against misuse of research findings, and the initiatives taken by companies and authorities to protect the privacy of customers.
Keywords: information privacy; information security; marketing research; misrepresentation; preventive measure.