International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence (15 papers in press)
Stock Composition of Mutual Funds and Fund Style: A Time Series Decomposition Approach towards Testing for Consistency
by Jaydip Sen
Abstract: In this paper, we present a generic approach for checking the consistency between the proclaimed style of a mutual fund and the actual fund composition. We use a method of time series decomposition of stock prices to ascertain whether their inclusion in a particular style of fund is justified. It has been our contention that some share prices have a strong trend component in their time series, some show seasonality, while some share prices exhibit strong random component. We have chosen a sample of eleven equity- based mutual funds of varying styles, from Indian financial market and analyzed whether the style of the fund matches with the stock composition of the fund. We feel that the retail investors, who buy into certain funds on the basic trust that fund managers have the requisite expertise, should know whether the portfolio matches what they promise. A detailed analysis of the results show that, while in majority of cases the actual allocation of funds is consistent with the corresponding fund style, there have been some notable deviations too.
Keywords: Mutual Fund; Time Series Decomposition; Trend; Seasonal; Random; R Programming Language; Non-parametric Statistical Tests.
Appeals & Spiels: A Comparative Analysis on Alcohol Advertising in the U.S. and Ireland
by Amina Gibic, Vivek Natarajan, Kabir Sen
Abstract: The U.S. and Ireland vary in their policies and regulations regarding the alcohol industry. This study sought to see whether the consumption of alcoholic beverages, and alcohol companys appeals and target audiences varied among the two countries, as well.150 total alcohol commercials (75 from the U.S., 75 from Ireland), ranging from the year 2002 to the current year, were collected and analyzed. The brand, commercial name, appeal used (image, product, sex, or humor), type of alcoholic beverage promoted, and the audience targeted (young men ages 18-49, young women ages 18-49, and niche markets: craft beer, health conscious, sports fans) were observed and noted, as were ads explicitly targeting youth. Although appeal utilized and type of alcoholic beverage promoted did not vary significantly between the two countries, the target audiences by country varied significantly, as did target audience by type of alcoholic beverage. This study reveals how the similarities in alcohol advertisements contrast with the difference in policies and regulations among the U.S. and Ireland, thus bringing the varying levels of industry clout and influence between the two countries to light.
Keywords: Alcohol; selling proposition; comparative analysis; target audience; appeal; niche market; on-pitch advertising; pitchside advertisements.
Marketing Information and Marketing Intelligence: Roles in Generating Customer Insights
by Pratap Chandra Mandal
Abstract: Business cannot exist without customers. Companies require generating customer insights to know the requirements of customers. Collection of relevant marketing information and marketing intelligence forms the basis of knowing customers. The paper discusses about the various aspects of collecting marketing information and marketing intelligence for generating customer insights. It focuses on the application of marketing information systems in capturing information about customers. It discusses the ways in which marketing information, marketing intelligence, and marketing information systems work together to generate relevant customer insights. The paper focuses on the analysis of competitive intelligence to understand customers better. Finally, the paper emphasizes that ethical practices need to be followed in analyzing marketing intelligence. Proper utilization of marketing information, marketing intelligence, and marketing information systems provides a direction for companies to generate better customer insights.
Keywords: marketing information; marketing intelligence; marketing information system; customer insight; internal data.
Examining Indian Consumers Belief and Attitude about Locavore Food
by Sudhagar D.P
Abstract: The study investigated the restaurant customer preference for locavore menu while dining in the restaurant. A qualitative design was employed based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. The study examined the belief and attitude associated with the locavore food consumption. Findings indicate that the restaurant customer holds a positive belief about the locavore food and they are interested in selecting the locavore menu. Factors such as healthy eating, motivation to the restaurateurs, encouragement to the local food suppliers, commitment to conserve the environment have influenced the attitude. The restaurant consumers are happy to be a part of the local food movement. The results will enlighten the hoteliers and the restaurant managers to understand the locavore food consumption. The study results will motivate the restaurateur to provide wider locavore menu choices to create a unique image of the restaurant and to fulfill the dining needs of the demanding customers. This is the first qualitative study conducted in the Indian context particularly in the locavore restaurants. This study will help to formulate and to amend the existing locavore menu options available in the restaurants and serving strategies to delight the customer.
Keywords: Locavore food; Restaurant customer; Theory of planned behavior; Belief; Attitude; Consumption patterns.
Measuring service convenience of e-retailers: an exploratory study in India
by Sablu Khan, Mohd Afaq Khan
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to conceptualize and explore the strategic importance of e-retailers service convenience. This study suggests that e-service convenience is a vital factor in the e-buyers buying behaviour. E-service convenience provides customer experience during e-shopping. The present study is done to adapt the scale developed by Ling Jiang et al. (2013) to measure e-service convenience for the e-retailers. The findings of the present study contribute and extend theory by adapting the e-service convenience scale for e-retailers. This study has also added two new constructs (e.g. Order convenience and Logistics/Reverse-logistics convenience) for e-service convenience in e-retailing context. The findings and the new e-service convenience scale will be helpful for e-retailers and marketers to improve its services.
Keywords: E-commerce; India; E-service Convenience Scale; E-retailer; E-shopping.
Exploring Social Media Users Behaviour Based on Electronic Word-of-Mouth (eWOM): a multivariate analysis
by Sita Mishra
Abstract: Today, the advent and adoption of social media changed the way brands and consumers interact. Social media enable consumers to have more influence on the products and services that marketers create to meet their needs. Therefore, to explore attitude of Indian consumers behaviour to affiliate with brands and engage in eWOM, this study carried out a survey of 181 social media users. Results of the study identified three factors-interpersonal influence, trust, and endangerment that facilitate eWOM behaviour. Further, the study established the relationship between brand affiliation factors and purchase intention of social media users. The present study is the first research in India which performed segmentation of eWOM users.
Keywords: eWOM; consumer behaviour; social media; consumer segmentation; cluster analysis.
Retail Service Quality Scale Validation in Pakistani Super and Hyper Stores Context
by Umer Mukhtar, Suleman Anwar
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to test the Retail Service Quality model, reliability, validity and generalizability of Retail Service Quality Scale (RSQS) in retail hyper and supermarkets of Pakistan, developed by Dabholkar. The dimension of convenience is tested as an independent dimension in the model. Two Well-known Retail Stores categorized as Hyper and Super Market Stores are selected for this study. Purposive Sampling method was used and 250 useful responses were collected from both stores in the region of Lahore, Pakistan. The study shows that RSQS is a valid instrument to measure retail service quality in super and hyper retail markets is also applicable in Pakistani Settings. In model testing, six dimensions are explaining 21.5 % and 17.3% variance in Super and Hyper retail Markets, respectively. The model and Instrument is also appropriate in Pakistan for measurement and make use of other than USA and other developed countries. Retail Business Managers can assess the current state of Retail Service Quality and can do management decisions to improve the performance in each dimension of model. This study contributes towards the limited studies carried out on model and instrument validity in Pakistan. It is tested in Pakistan as a collectivist state and a vibrant and dynamic country in modern retailing and towering preferences of consumers in super and hyper retail markets. This study is contributing by fulfilling the need of instrument validation, as it is a critical incremental progression to ensure the valid scientific knowledge generation.
Keywords: Retail Service Quality; Super Stores; Validity of RSQS; Customer service quality; Retailing; Super Stores; Hyper Stores; Service Experience; Retail sector Pakistan; Reliability; Customer Interaction; Tangibles.
SMEs Intention towards the Adoption of Mobile Marketing: A Case of Pakistan
by Masoodul Hassan, Maimoona Malik, Zeeshan Iqbal
Abstract: The fastest growing marketing phenomena, around the world especially in small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of developed and developing economies, is the adoption of mobile marketing which radically influences ways of advertising. However, Pakistani SMEs are less interested towards the adoption of mobile marketing. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and examine a parsimonious structure of multiple constructs comprised as technological (perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use), organizational (subjective norms, financial resources), and environment (competitive pressure, customers pressure and technological support) through the theoretical lens of technology-organization-environment (TOE). Convenient sampling technique was used for data collection by distributing self-administrated questionnaires among the top-management of SMEs in Pakistan. Furthermore, structural equation modelling with the help of SmartPLS was used to analyse the yielded data. The study results empowers the policy makers and academicians to gain in-depth knowledge of the drivers associated with intention to adopt m-marketing by Pakistani SMEs.
Keywords: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs); Technological Factors; Organizational Factors; Environmental Factors; TOE Framework; Mobile Marketing; Intention; Pakistan.
Individuals Intention towards Social Commerce: An Empirical Study of Pakistan
by Masoodul Hassan, Zeeshan Iqbal, Nayab Bukhari
Abstract: This study aimed to explore the individuals intention towards the social commerce in Pakistan through the theoretical lenses of technology acceptance mode, theory of reasoned action and theory of planned behaviour. A parsimonious structure of the key constructs of TAM, TRA and TBP along with an additional construct of perceived risk was developed. The researchers have developed a research questionnaire and distributed among the respondents to yield the data about the study constructs. Furthermore, PLS-SEM approach was utilized, through SmartPLS software, to test the hypothesized relationships between the study constructs. The results disclosed the significant highlights about the individuals behavioural intention towards social commerce with respect to Pakistan, which are useful for the academicians as well as for the policy makers.
Keywords: Technology Acceptance Model; Theory of Reasoned Action; Theory of Planned Behaviour; Attitude; Intention; Social Commerce; Pakistan.
Public Policy Issues and Initiatives in Collection of Information and Intelligence in Direct Marketing
by Pratap Chandra Mandal
Abstract: Companies require information about their customers to attract them, influence them, and build relationships. Companies apply a number of direct marketing channels to collect information and intelligence about customers. Collecting information and intelligence through direct marketing channels raises concerns about the different unfair practices followed by direct marketers. The paper discusses the various unfair practices adopted by companies involved in direct marketing, the issue of invasion of consumer privacy, and the need for protection of consumer privacy. The paper further focuses on the various rules and regulations enforced by the governments of countries to protect customers. The various initiatives taken by companies are discussed. Direct marketing channels allow companies to collect information and intelligence about customers and to influence them. However, companies need to protect their customers to build long-term relationships.
Keywords: direct marketing; consumer privacy; consumer protection; marketing information; unfair practices.
Collateral effects of digital ethics practices across business and society: trends and challenges
by Ananya Rajagopal
Abstract: Society and business have joint responsibility to govern the ethics. Digital marketing has become a cost-effective strategy for the emerging companies and has become a popular shopping place among the consumers. As the digital marketplace has grown parallel with the information technology, it has become vulnerable to piracy due to breach of ethics. Though, companies are spending a great deal of time and money to install codes of ethics in digital business through ethics training, compliance programs, and in-house watchdogs, there is still a long way to go on establishing the ethical behaviour in society. This paper critically examines the collateral effect of digital literacy on society and business. It has been argued in the paper that the lack of digital ethics has caused serious implications on business due to piracy and ethical breach.
Keywords: digital marketing; ethics; digital literacy; piracy; social implications.
Effect of mobile shopping apps on middle age consumers' buying behaviour
by Ayushi Tewari, Madhvendra Misra
Abstract: Mobile commerce has nowadays become a popular internet marketing strategy which operates through various mobile devices. Mobile shopping and mobile banking are the two phenomenal shifts that have transcended the consumers' attentions and interest towards online shopping. Both national players (Flipkart, Myntra, Snapdeal) and international players (Amazon, eBay) are working strategically in m-commerce business so as to increase their market share. Mobile apps are designed in such a way that they exclusively focus on increasing user engagement and make their experience easier. The aim of this research paper is to analyse the effect of mobile shopping apps on middle age consumers buying behaviour. The results revealed the significant impact of mobile shopping apps on buying behaviour of middle age consumers. Further it can be inferred that pre purchase services, transaction related services and satisfaction of middle age consumers are instrumental in determining the purchase intention of middle age consumers.
Keywords: mobile shopping apps; middle age consumers; buying behaviour; mobile commerce; internet marketing strategy; mobile devices; pre purchase services; transaction related services; satisfaction; purchase intention.
Forecasting with limited intermittent data: a methodological framework applicable to newly established firms
by Maria Chatzipanagioti
Abstract: Nowadays, the motivation for starting a new business in Greece is necessity. As the Greek economy is experiencing the eighth year of recession, there are many newly established SMEs striving to survive. Their main difficulty lies in forecasting demand, while having both limited and intermittent data. Although the literature provides several forecasting techniques for intermittent demand, most of them are not applicable in case of short demand history. This paper provides a methodological framework for intermittent demand forecasting applicable to newly established firms with limited demand data. The proposed quantitative decision support methodology is evaluated empirically and its usage is demonstrated through its application on real data of a newly established SME in Greece. The results demonstrate that the methodology can be used to forecast demand for products with limited intermittent data. Challenges concerning all stages of the methodology are discussed, while sensitivity analyses are conducted and interesting managerial insights are presented.
Keywords: forecasting; business forecasting; quantitative decision support methodology; methodological framework; new firm; intermittent demand; limited demand data; small and medium-sized enterprises; SMEs; economic crisis; economic recession; Greece.
Understanding the sectors of Indian economy for portfolio choice
by Jaydip Sen, Tamal Datta Chaudhuri
Abstract: The objective of this work is to ascertain sectoral characteristics of stock market indices of India through time series decomposition. It is postulated that different sectors in an economy do not behave uniformly and sectors differ from each other in terms of their trend patterns, their seasonal characteristics and also their randomness. The R programming language is used for decomposing the time series of the sectoral indices as well as indices of stocks. Based on our approach, we also provide a framework of forecasting that can be applied on various sectors of an economy and also on individual stocks in the sectors. Results indicate that the behavioral patterns of stocks largely follow those exhibited by the respective sectors to which they belong. The forecasting methods are found to be robust and accurate in forecasting the pattern of index movements of the sectors and the individual stocks.
Keywords: time series decomposition; trend; seasonality; random; forecasting; holt winters forecasting method; ARIMA; auto correlation; auto regression; moving average; partial auto correlation; portfolio management.
The study of effective variables on capital structure
by Vahab Bashiri, Hamidreza Salehi, Mohsen Nowruzi, Aein Ghorbani Ghashghaeinejad, Mohsen Rezaei, Alireza Hamedi
Abstract: Capital structure decision is a challenging problem. The choice of optimal capital structure is very important for the company's continuity and leads to survival in the competitive world. Some researchers have presented variety theories for recognise optimal capital structure and a number of them believe that financial flexibility affects on capital structure as well as firms are able to maximise the firm value through mobilise its financial resources. So, due to importance of this matter, in this study MLP and RBF methods are used to review of the relationship between financial flexibility and capital structure of firms. We are using financial flexibility variables as input data and capital structure as output data. Experimental results indicate that both of different sub-models of NN (MLP and RBF) are good tools for predicting the outputs based on inputs and there is an effective relationship between financial flexibility and capital structure as well.
Keywords: MLP; RBF; capital structure; financial flexibility.