International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management (10 papers in press)
Metallgesellschafts Hedging Debacle: What Went Wrong and Lessons Learned
by Anand Shetty, John Manley
Abstract: This paper reviews various aspects of the energy-derivatives marketing and hedging program of Metallgesellschaft (MG) and its hedging strategy. Specifically, the paper looks at the programs risk exposures, cash flow problems, and the developments that led to the termination of the program by MGs management. The criticisms of the hedging program, the impact of MGs action of abruptly terminating the program, and whether the program involved speculation are discussed. The paper concludes with observations on the lessons learned from MGs hedging debacle.
Keywords: Stack-and-roll hedge; strip hedge; basis risk; rollover risk; backwardation; contango; hedge accounting.
Identifying housing market expectation transformation: an agent-based housing market testbed
by Ruhang Xu, Zhilin Liu
Abstract: Price variation is complex in the market. Expectation transformation plays a key role in the variation process. Incomplete and imperfect information are involved in the process forming expectation transformation. This paper tries to identify expectation transformation under different exogenous conditions in a housing market through an agent-based simulation approach. Firstly, this paper constructs basic model elements according to empirical sense and theorical findings. Secondly, this paper builds an intelligence-and-trading behaviour model of agents based on GP (Genetic programming) approach. The agent-based housing market testbed (ABHMT) is constructed. To verify the model, this paper sets two groups of control experiments. Through the experiments, we reveal 5 new findings in the field. The control experiments show the effectiveness of ABHMT. The comparison of real-life history scenarios and the simulation results shows the validity of the model. With the help of ABHMT, it is possible to simulate reality-alike situations to assist more market analyses for a certain application case.
Keywords: Expectation transformation; Economic behaviour; Market simulation; Agent-based model; Control experiment.
Information systems and software used by food businesses in Western Greece
by Bill Mitsos, Achilleas Kontogeorgos, Grigorios Beligiannis
Abstract: In the threshold of the 21th century even more businesses are trying to compete in the global competitive market, improve their function and gain a competitive advantage by using information systems and information technology. Food businesses in Western Greece use information systems to improve the management of their functions. They apply such systems in human resources, in finance and accounting, in sales and marketing, in operational functions and in production. The overwhelming majority of businesses use ERP systems while much fewer use other software packages like CRM, MRP, SRS, and HRM. Moreover, a few businesses use tailor made packages mainly to manage human resources, operational and production functions. Finally, there is a growth prospective in human recourses, operational and production functions to apply software packages vendors in the future. The contribution of this research to the existing literature is that it is the first research engaged in the adaptation of new digital formats of management and organization by traditional food companies in Western Greece.
Keywords: Information Systems; Software; Food Businesses; Western Greece.
Effects of model change rate on local content development issues for the springing automobile assembly plants in emerging economies
by Cornelius Agbo
Abstract: The concern of this paper is to elucidate the consequences of frequently changing from one motor vehicle model to another on the local content development for the automobile manufacturing industry especially in the developing economies. The numbers of completely knocked down (CKD), semi-knocked down (SKD) and fully built-up units (FBU) by model imported into Nigeria were obtained. The local content input of these vehicles manufactured since 1975 to date were analyzed to determine their level of local component substitution. It was found that none of the vehicles models achieved up to 50% target local content before being phased out. It appears that the models marketing cycle were too short to enable the local content manufacturers get acquainted with the possible replaceable components in the models before being phased out by their original equipment manufacturers with the attendant cost consequence for the local content developers. There is therefore need for adoption of few models with strict control on their marketing cycle. Government policy directive in this respect is expected to serve as a panacea. It is therefore recommended that not only the vehicles but the vehicles models and versions be considered with terms and conditions for possible change stated during the process of incorporating a new automobile production plant.
Keywords: vehicle production; model change rate; local content; cost of technology; supply chain.
Application of Structuration Theory in the Context of ICT: The Case of DESH Microfinance in Bangldesh
by Jashim Uddin Ahmed, Mohammad Jasim Uddin, Kamal Uddin Ahmed, Md. Al-Amin
Abstract: This paper is an exploratory nature of how to adapt structuration theory in the context of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) as used in non-governmental organisation (NGO) in Bangladesh. Structuration theory, developed by Anthony Giddens in 1984, has been used to explain organizational structures with Giddens arguing that structure and human interactions are mutually interdependent. However the main aim of the paper is to evaluate the application of structuration theory in the context of ICT in the microfinance sector of Bangladesh. The case study has been conducted on a leading microfinance institution in Bangladesh (given the pseudonym of DESH). The paper finds that the theory provides a well organized framework to identify organizational and social issues and how they are interconnected to technology. The paper also provides suggestions how technology can be more meaningful to the practitioners.
Keywords: Bangladesh; Structuration theory; non-governmental organisation; microfinance; adaptation; Information and Communication Technology.
Policies for sustainable growth of the SMEs: a study in Indian automotive component manufacturing industry
by Chandra Mouli V V Kotturu, Biswajit Mahanty
Abstract: In automotive manufacturing industry, a majority of the component manufacturers are small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), who supply parts and assemblies to the original equipment manufacturers (OEM) on contractual agreements. In recent years, with rapid technological advancements in manufacturing and the entry of transnational corporations (TNCs) in the automotive manufacturing industry, component manufacturers are not able to meet the expectations of the OEMs and are struggling to stay in the value chain. As a result, growth of these enterprises is slowing down. In this research work, a questionnaire survey was administered among automotive component manufacturing SMEs, who supply components to a TNC in India. Using a resource based view strategy, a dynamic simulation model has been developed to study the performance behaviour of the SMEs and formulate policies for their sustainability. The results show that in the existing scenario, the SMEs would fail to supply the desired products and would not be able to sustain their growth without building technological competence and retraining of the staff. There should also be adequate level of support between the TNC and the SMEs for building technological competence of the SMEs.
Keywords: Small and medium enterprises; Subcontracting; Indian automotive component manufacturing industry; System dynamics; Policy study.
On the use of economic evaluation of new technology in helicopter emergency medical services
by Leif Inge Kjærvoll Sørskår, Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen, Håkon Bjorheim Abrahamsen
Abstract: When evaluating new technology in helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS), economic evaluation is normally part of the assessment. The outcome of economic evaluation may provide fruitful insight for the decision-makers, but, due to the complexity of the HEMS system, it is challenging to perform such evaluations in this context. A change in the components affects the whole system, and a lack of consideration of system components and their interactions may lead to unintended economic consequences when implementing new technology. Ultimately, this may cause a negative contribution to overall patient safety. We propose a conceptual methodology, using a systems model as part of the economic evaluation. The article is a revised and expanded version of a conference article presented at ESREL 2017, Slovenia.
Keywords: systems approach; economic evaluation; EE; helicopter emergency medical services; HEMS; technology appraisal; systems engineering initiative for patient safety; SEIPS.
Systematic barriers to technology development in Nigeria: a literature review
by Christian O. Omobhude, Shih-Hsin Chen
Abstract: This paper conducts an intensive literature review on systematic barriers to technology development in Nigeria. The review suggests institutional challenges and instability that limits technology development and knowledge diffusion in Nigeria. In addition, the review reveals increasingly prominent role performed by intermediaries by providing technologies to firms within Nigeria. The findings of this article shows that systematic barriers to technology development in Nigeria includes: weak policy initiatives for technology development, poor technology outputs by firms, inadequate financial support, weak collaboration between universities, research institutes and firms. Factors such as state of infrastructure, absorptive capacities, cost of technology development activities and ineffective policies hinder technology development in Nigeria. This paper therefore suggests policy measures to facilitate interaction among actors and institutions to minimise infrastructural, financial and bureaucratic burdens and enhance absorptive capacity. The contribution of this paper can enable researchers re-conceptualise peculiarities of actor involved in technology development in Nigeria.
Keywords: technology development; Nigerian innovation system; systematic barriers; systems of innovation; innovation and development; Nigeria.
Research on regional differences and dynamic evolution of China's eco-efficiency
by Weiping Jia, Ling Wu, Pan Xiao
Abstract: Based on the panel data of China's 30 provinces during 2000-2011, this paper uses the super-efficiency DEA model to calculate the eco-efficiency of 30 provinces. The spatial autocorrelation analysis method is used to analyse the evolution pattern of eco-efficiency, explore the spatial mechanism which affects the regional differences of eco-efficiency. Results suggested that China should transform the economic development pattern to realise the transition from high energy consumption and high pollution emissions to low energy consumption and low pollution emissions. China has a vast territory, and its resource endowment and economic development level are great differences among provinces. The agglomeration regions with high eco-efficiency make full use of the existing economic and technological advantages to construct a provincial eco-economic cooperation alliance. The regions with low eco-efficiency construct the production system that is conducive to resource conservation and environmental friendliness, and promote the promotion and utilisation of energy-saving technologies.
Keywords: eco-efficiency; spatial correlation; convergence; agglomeration; spatial distribution; China.
Evaluation of Canadian innovation policy: locating innovation policy among other policies
by Rashid Nikzad
Abstract: The objective of government innovation policy is to improve the living standards and prosperity of citizens through boosting innovation and productivity. In order to succeed, innovation policy needs to address the overall innovation climate, which goes beyond traditional science and technology policy, and utilise various economic and social policies. Specifically, the success of innovation policy depends on its relationship and coordination with other government economic and social policies. Considering the low performance of Canadian innovation policies in the past, this study reviews and evaluates the innovation policies of the Canadian federal government since 1963 with respect to the best practices suggested in the literature. The focus of the paper is whether the relationships between innovation policy and other economic and social policies are taken into account in the development of federal government innovation policies, and whether the government moves beyond science and technology policy in the design of innovation policy.
Keywords: innovation; research and development; innovation policy; science and technology policy; business environment; entrepreneurship; innovation management; government policy; economic growth; economic policy.