International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management (10 papers in press)
Metallgesellschafts Hedging Debacle: What Went Wrong and Lessons Learned
by Anand Shetty, John Manley
Abstract: This paper reviews various aspects of the energy-derivatives marketing and hedging program of Metallgesellschaft (MG) and its hedging strategy. Specifically, the paper looks at the programs risk exposures, cash flow problems, and the developments that led to the termination of the program by MGs management. The criticisms of the hedging program, the impact of MGs action of abruptly terminating the program, and whether the program involved speculation are discussed. The paper concludes with observations on the lessons learned from MGs hedging debacle.
Keywords: Stack-and-roll hedge; strip hedge; basis risk; rollover risk; backwardation; contango; hedge accounting.
Identifying housing market expectation transformation: an agent-based housing market testbed
by Ruhang Xu, Zhilin Liu
Abstract: Price variation is complex in the market. Expectation transformation plays a key role in the variation process. Incomplete and imperfect information are involved in the process forming expectation transformation. This paper tries to identify expectation transformation under different exogenous conditions in a housing market through an agent-based simulation approach. Firstly, this paper constructs basic model elements according to empirical sense and theorical findings. Secondly, this paper builds an intelligence-and-trading behaviour model of agents based on GP (Genetic programming) approach. The agent-based housing market testbed (ABHMT) is constructed. To verify the model, this paper sets two groups of control experiments. Through the experiments, we reveal 5 new findings in the field. The control experiments show the effectiveness of ABHMT. The comparison of real-life history scenarios and the simulation results shows the validity of the model. With the help of ABHMT, it is possible to simulate reality-alike situations to assist more market analyses for a certain application case.
Keywords: Expectation transformation; Economic behaviour; Market simulation; Agent-based model; Control experiment.
Information systems and software used by food businesses in Western Greece
by Bill Mitsos, Achilleas Kontogeorgos, Grigorios Beligiannis
Abstract: In the threshold of the 21th century even more businesses are trying to compete in the global competitive market, improve their function and gain a competitive advantage by using information systems and information technology. Food businesses in Western Greece use information systems to improve the management of their functions. They apply such systems in human resources, in finance and accounting, in sales and marketing, in operational functions and in production. The overwhelming majority of businesses use ERP systems while much fewer use other software packages like CRM, MRP, SRS, and HRM. Moreover, a few businesses use tailor made packages mainly to manage human resources, operational and production functions. Finally, there is a growth prospective in human recourses, operational and production functions to apply software packages vendors in the future. The contribution of this research to the existing literature is that it is the first research engaged in the adaptation of new digital formats of management and organization by traditional food companies in Western Greece.
Keywords: Information Systems; Software; Food Businesses; Western Greece.
Effects of model change rate on local content development issues for the springing automobile assembly plants in emerging economies
by Cornelius Agbo
Abstract: The concern of this paper is to elucidate the consequences of frequently changing from one motor vehicle model to another on the local content development for the automobile manufacturing industry especially in the developing economies. The numbers of completely knocked down (CKD), semi-knocked down (SKD) and fully built-up units (FBU) by model imported into Nigeria were obtained. The local content input of these vehicles manufactured since 1975 to date were analyzed to determine their level of local component substitution. It was found that none of the vehicles models achieved up to 50% target local content before being phased out. It appears that the models marketing cycle were too short to enable the local content manufacturers get acquainted with the possible replaceable components in the models before being phased out by their original equipment manufacturers with the attendant cost consequence for the local content developers. There is therefore need for adoption of few models with strict control on their marketing cycle. Government policy directive in this respect is expected to serve as a panacea. It is therefore recommended that not only the vehicles but the vehicles models and versions be considered with terms and conditions for possible change stated during the process of incorporating a new automobile production plant.
Keywords: vehicle production; model change rate; local content; cost of technology; supply chain.
Application of Structuration Theory in the Context of ICT: The Case of DESH Microfinance in Bangldesh
by Jashim Uddin Ahmed, Mohammad Jasim Uddin, Kamal Uddin Ahmed, Md. Al-Amin
Abstract: This paper is an exploratory nature of how to adapt structuration theory in the context of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) as used in non-governmental organisation (NGO) in Bangladesh. Structuration theory, developed by Anthony Giddens in 1984, has been used to explain organizational structures with Giddens arguing that structure and human interactions are mutually interdependent. However the main aim of the paper is to evaluate the application of structuration theory in the context of ICT in the microfinance sector of Bangladesh. The case study has been conducted on a leading microfinance institution in Bangladesh (given the pseudonym of DESH). The paper finds that the theory provides a well organized framework to identify organizational and social issues and how they are interconnected to technology. The paper also provides suggestions how technology can be more meaningful to the practitioners.
Keywords: Bangladesh; Structuration theory; non-governmental organisation; microfinance; adaptation; Information and Communication Technology.
Policies for sustainable growth of the SMEs: a study in Indian automotive component manufacturing industry
by Chandra Mouli V V Kotturu, Biswajit Mahanty
Abstract: In automotive manufacturing industry, a majority of the component manufacturers are small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), who supply parts and assemblies to the original equipment manufacturers (OEM) on contractual agreements. In recent years, with rapid technological advancements in manufacturing and the entry of transnational corporations (TNCs) in the automotive manufacturing industry, component manufacturers are not able to meet the expectations of the OEMs and are struggling to stay in the value chain. As a result, growth of these enterprises is slowing down. In this research work, a questionnaire survey was administered among automotive component manufacturing SMEs, who supply components to a TNC in India. Using a resource based view strategy, a dynamic simulation model has been developed to study the performance behaviour of the SMEs and formulate policies for their sustainability. The results show that in the existing scenario, the SMEs would fail to supply the desired products and would not be able to sustain their growth without building technological competence and retraining of the staff. There should also be adequate level of support between the TNC and the SMEs for building technological competence of the SMEs.
Keywords: Small and medium enterprises; Subcontracting; Indian automotive component manufacturing industry; System dynamics; Policy study.
Risk-informed decision-making with an improved risk-based approach to evaluate plug and abandonment designs
by Henrik Langdalen, Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen, Jon Tommeras Selvik, Hans Petter Lohne
Abstract: A risk-based approach has been established to evaluate the quality of plug and abandonment oil and gas well designs that differ from the regulatory requirements on the Norwegian continental shelf. A move away from the prescriptive requirements to a more performance-based approach implies a reliance on the risk-based approachs ability to treat and reflect all the relevant uncertainties. The quality measure in this context is the leakage risk, expressed in terms of failure probability and the associated leakage rate, where uncertainties are treated by probability distributions. It is reasonable to question whether the probability distributions provide adequate representations of all the relevant uncertainties. To improve the current risk-based approach, we propose an improved approach that complements the probability distributions by highlighting the uncertainties rather than the probabilities, assesses the risk of deviation from the assumptions and reflects the knowledgebase.
Keywords: Risk assessment; plug and abandonment; leakage risk; probability of failure; leakage rate; assumption deviation risk; uncertainty; assumption; background knowledge; strength of knowledge; risk management.
Drone Transportation Cost Analysis for Emergency Medical Products
by Sushil Poudel, Sudipta Chowdhury, Mohammad Marufuzzaman, Linkan Bian, Manas Mudbari, Gaurav Pradhan
Abstract: Afastermode of transportation that carries emergencymedical supplies
such as blood bags is consequential to saving lives. Although different road
vehicles (e.g., ambulances) are used for this, with increasing rate of congestion,
it is becoming increasingly challenging to perform this task on time. The
objective of this study is to demonstrate the applicability of drones in transporting
emergency medical products and investigate how different parameters (technical
and environmental) that affect the drone flight, contribute to the cost of
transportation. A number of to-be scenarios" have been generated by varying
different parameters. Similarly, a case study has been conducted to illustrate
the use of different drones on different operational conditions. The outcomes of
this study have the potential to help concerned officials make decisions on the
feasibility of using drones in transporting emergency medical products, assist
policy makers on policy decisions, and contribute to saving the life of victims of
Keywords: Drone; Transportation; Cost analysis; Emergency medical products.
The family firm as an arena for white-collar crime
by Petter Gottschalk, Cecilie Asting
Abstract: In this article, we identify certain aspects of family firms that can cause specific personal motives, organizational opportunities and deviant behaviors. Based on the theory of convenience, we identify organizational opportunities for family members to defraud their own firm. We also identify personal willingness for nonfamily members to defraud the family firm they are working for. We do not argue that white-collar crime is more or less frequent in family firms compared to other kinds of firms. There are several solutions to this problem. Family members should not have voting rights and privileges that cause actions without controls. Nonfamily members should be fairly paid and stimulated to identify with the business.
Keywords: white-collar crime; convenience theory; agency theory; family firms; equity theory.
Examining a research boundary within natural disaster management: Qualitative case study
by Kyoo-Man Ha
Abstract: In recognition of scientific researchs key role in the field of natural disaster management, this paper aims to remove a research boundary in the Korean setting, with the support of impact assessment theories. The hypothesis is that if a boundary exists between domestic research and international research in the Korean field of natural disaster management, then it deserves appropriate alternatives. A qualitative case study was used to compare domestic research and international research via government research, business research, college research, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) research. Upon acceptance of the hypothesis, a key finding obtained points to Koreas need to develop research boundary awareness. Accordingly, the international community has to set up multilanguage networks, include a research boundary into the framework, accommodate multiple cultures in the research, and consequentially make better decisions when managing natural disasters.
Keywords: natural disaster management research; government research; research boundary awareness; research networks; impact assessment.