International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management (18 papers in press)
Technology Advancement in Developing Countries: The Policy Variables
by Chukwunonso Nwoye
Abstract: Technology has been identified as being crucial to sustainable economic growth and development. Its advancement varies amongst countries and even within them depending on certain influential variables. These variables were identified and categorised using factor analysis. The impact of each of the variables on technological advancement of developing economies were quantified using weighting scheme from factor analysis and aggregated into a composite Technological Capability by linear and geometric aggregation techniques. The categories identified and their overall contributions to the composite include: Exposure to New/Foreign Technology-25.87%, Technology Transfer Mechanism-11.68%, Macroeconomic Environment-16.91% and Incentives- 17.02 %. The analysis showed that the impact of weight on scores of the composite was minimal, while variations in scores computed using linear aggregation technique were also reflected in those computed by geometric aggregation even though more sensitive. The impact of weighting and aggregation technique on Technological Capability rankings of economies based on computed composite were verified using sensitivity analysis.
Keywords: Technology Advancement; Developing Countries; Policy; Foreign Technology; Technology Transfer Mechanism; Macroeconomics; Factor Analysis.
Big Data Approaches and Outcome of Information Asymmetry: Opportunities for Future Research
by Milind Mandlik, Djavlonbek Kadirov
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to advocate reorientation of current managerial practices in the light of growing reliance on Big Data strategies by contemporary firms, to make them more consumer-centric in nature. Big Data strategies by their very nature and modalities lead to heightened levels of information asymmetry which by default have the capacity to disempower the very user that contributes towards the data pools. This paper offers a critique of mainstream managerial approaches to big data strategies, through stakeholder engagement and service ecosystems perspectives. The attempt is not to criticise big data strategies per se, but to suggest; it is merely a tool which can be equally used for consumer entrapment, as well as consumer empowerment. Perhaps it is time to have a re-think or reconfiguration of the existing marketing ecosystem, to make it truly consumer-centric in its purpose and intent too. This paper offers some key research propositions that would assist big data-driven firms to reorient their managerial practices, making them truly consumer-centric in nature. This paper wishes to contribute to the intellectual debate among academics, policy maker, and practitioners alike; en-route for a type of big data-driven managerial orientation that balances the consumers right to market-based transparency, and the enterprises need for economic viability.
Keywords: Big Data Marketing; Information Asymmetry; Stakeholder Management; Consumer Empowerment.
Digitalization through Mobile Commerce: The Impact of Demographic and Behavioral Intention Factors on Mobile Commerce Usage Activities
by Arshan Bhullar, Pushpinder Singh Gill
Abstract: The internet has created extraordinary business opportunities for e-commerce and with the use of internet on mobile devices a new form of business model has emerged called Mobile Commerce. The users demographic and behavioral intention factors influences the kind of mobile commerce usage activities they do. So the current research is an effort to examine such impact of demographic and behavioral intention variables on mobile commerce usage activities. A questionnaire survey was conducted among 193 internet mobile users from three Universities of Punjab and the data was analyzed by employing Structural Equation Modeling. The results show that age and education have different impact on different m-commerce usage activities but gender has no significant relationship. This study also confirms the importance of behavioral intention factors like perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, perceived enjoyment and trust. The findings of this research show strong empirical base for all marketers and strategists who are looking to take full advantage of the strength of m-commerce.
Keywords: Digitalization; Mobile Commerce; Demographic Factors; Behavioral Intention Factors; M-commerce Usage Activities; Mobile Users.
A Hub Covering Flow Network Design Resilient to Major Disruptions and Supply/Demand Uncertainties
by Mohammad Mahdi Nasiri, Hani Shahmoradi-Moghadam, Seyed Ali Torabi
Abstract: This paper presents a robust methodology to deal with a novel resilient hub covering flow problem (HCFP) with capacity and budget constraints. The primary HCFP is to determine the best network setting, which minimizes the total cost of establishing hubs and shipping the demand, subject to some constraints. In order to cope with the inherent uncertainty associated with the input data, a robust HCFP (RHCFP) is proposed. In order to evaluate the performance of the presented models, we use the Monte Carlo simulation technique to measure the efficiency of the robust model. In order to select the best conservatism level, we combine several measures for evaluating the value of a solution using a criterion called Total Performance Measure (TPM), which demonstrates that the robust optimization model performs better than the deterministic model in all cases.
Keywords: Hub covering flow problem; Capacity constraint; Robust optimization; Interval and polyhedral robust approach; Resilience.
On the use of economic evaluation of new technology in helicopter emergency medical services
by Leif Inge Kjærvoll Sørskår, Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen, Håkon Bjorheim Abrahamsen
Abstract: When evaluating new technology in helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS), economic evaluation is normally part of the assessment. The outcome of economic evaluation may provide fruitful insight for the decision-makers, but, due to the complexity of the HEMS system, it is challenging to perform such evaluations in this context. A change in the components affects the whole system, and a lack of consideration of system components and their interactions may lead to unintended economic consequences when implementing new technology. Ultimately, this may cause a negative contribution to overall patient safety. We propose a conceptual methodology, using a systems model as part of the economic evaluation. The article is a revised and expanded version of a conference article presented at ESREL 2017, Slovenia.
Keywords: Systems approach; economic evaluation; Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (HEMS); technology appraisal; Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety (SEIPS).
EXPLORING KEY TECHNOLOGY NETWORKS OF TELEMATICS USING PATENT ANALYSIS
by Shu-Hao Chang
Abstract: Following the development of the Internet of Things and cloud technology, telematics has become a popular field in information and communication technology, with increasing related applications. However, previous telematics studies mostly focused on the discussion of technological details or research in the fields of market application, without actively pinpointing the key telematics technologies and its technological development trends. Therefore, this study used telematics patents as the basis for analysis, constructing a technological network for telematics patents through network analysis. The results revealed that the key telematics technologies are mainly focused on vehicle operation, traffic control systems, wireless networks, and road transport; the key technologies were not focused on specific technologies fields, but possessed the characteristics of multiple technological areas. In addition, the development of services or facilities specially adapted for wireless communication networks has been the most vigorous technological development. The trend indicates that the development of wireless network technology for telematics remains the focus; examples include the compatibility problem of cars and vehicles, 5G development, and even the standardization and regulatory bodies, certification, and approval processes in the field of wireless communications. The patent technology network model constructed in this study can serve as a reference for the government to promote emerging technologies and allocate research and development resources.
Keywords: Telematics; Patent network; Network analysis; Key technology.
Systematic barriers to Technology Development in Nigeria: A literature Review
by Christian Omobhude, Shih-Hsin Chen
Abstract: This paper conducts an intensive literature review on systematic barriers to technology development in Nigeria. The review suggests perennial institutional challenges and instability, dating back to post-independence times, that limits technology development and knowledge diffusion in Nigeria. The review reveals increasingly prominent role performed by intermediaries in terms of providing needed technologies to firms within and outside Nigeria. The identified barriers to technology development in Nigeria provides avenue to isolate challenges of technology development and allows policy makers enhance effective policy delivery at system level. The findings of this review article reveals that systematic barriers to technology development in Nigeria includes: weak policy initiatives for technology development, poor technology outputs by firms, inadequate financial support, weak collaboration between universities, research institutes and firms. Factors such as state of infrastructure, absorptive capacities, cost (impact) of technology development activities and ineffective policies on protection of intellectual property hinders technology development in Nigeria. This paper therefore suggests policy measures to create relevant innovation policy that can be implemented to facilitate interaction among actors and institutions for technology development in a way that minimizes infrastructural, financial and bureaucratic burdens and enhances absorptive capacity. The contribution of this paper can enable researchers re-conceptualize peculiarities of actor involved in technology development in Nigeria.
Keywords: technology development; Nigerian innovation system; Systematic barriers.
Research on regional differences and dynamic evolution of Chinas eco-efficiency
by Weiping Jia, Ling Wu
Abstract: based on Chinas 30 provinces panel data from 2000 to 2011, we use the super-efficiency DEA model to calculate the eco-efficiency of 30 provinces in China. On above basis, the spatial autocorrelation analysis method is used to analye the evolution pattern of eco-efficiency, in order to explore the spatial mechanism which affects the regional difference of eco-efficiency. Research results suggested that Chinese government should change the way of economic development to realize the transition from high consumption, high energy consumption and high pollution to low consumption, low emission and high output. China has a vast territory. There are great differences in resource endowment and economic development level among provinces.The agglomeration regions with high eco-efficiency make full use of the existing economic and technological advantages to constructan inter provincial eco-economic cooperation alliance.The regions with low eco-efficiency construct the production system that is conducive to resource conservation and environmental friendliness, and promote the promotion and utilization of energy-saving technologies. Our ﬁndings are useful to transform the economic development pattern, energy saving and emission reduction, strengthen regional economic cooperation and exchanges in China. Furthermore, this study demonstrates an evaluation approach of eco-efficiency and its evolution characteristicsto design the national or regional system for sustainable development, which can be adapted to other countries and regions.
Keywords: eco-efficiency; spatial correlation; convergence; agglomeration; spatial distribution.
EVALUATION OF CANADIAN INNOVATION POLICY: LOCATING INNOVATION POLICY AMONG OTHER POLICIES
by Rashid Nikzad
Abstract: The objective of government innovation policy is to improve the living standards and prosperity of citizens through boosting innovation and productivity. In order to succeed, innovation policy needs to address the overall innovation climate, which goes beyond traditional science and technology policy, and utilize various economic and social policies. Specifically, the success of innovation policy depends on its relationship and coordination with other government economic and social policies. Considering the low performance of Canadian innovation policies in the past, this study reviews and evaluates the innovation policies of the Canadian federal government since 1963 with respect to the best practices suggested in the literature. The focus of the paper is whether the relationships between innovation policy and other economic and social policies are taken into account in the development of federal government innovation policies, and whether the government moves beyond science and technology policy in the design of innovation policy.
Keywords: Innovation; Research and Development; Innovation policy; Science and Technology Policy; Business environment; Entrepreneurship; Innovation Management; Government Policy; Economic Growth; Economic Policy.
Metallgesellschafts Hedging Debacle: What Went Wrong and Lessons Learned
by Anand Shetty, John Manley
Abstract: This paper reviews various aspects of the energy-derivatives marketing and hedging program of Metallgesellschaft (MG) and its hedging strategy. Specifically, the paper looks at the programs risk exposures, cash flow problems, and the developments that led to the termination of the program by MGs management. The criticisms of the hedging program, the impact of MGs action of abruptly terminating the program, and whether the program involved speculation are discussed. The paper concludes with observations on the lessons learned from MGs hedging debacle.
Keywords: Stack-and-roll hedge; strip hedge; basis risk; rollover risk; backwardation; contango; hedge accounting.
Identifying housing market expectation transformation: an agent-based housing market testbed
by Ruhang Xu, Zhilin Liu
Abstract: Price variation is complex in the market. Expectation transformation plays a key role in the variation process. Incomplete and imperfect information are involved in the process forming expectation transformation. This paper tries to identify expectation transformation under different exogenous conditions in a housing market through an agent-based simulation approach. Firstly, this paper constructs basic model elements according to empirical sense and theorical findings. Secondly, this paper builds an intelligence-and-trading behaviour model of agents based on GP (Genetic programming) approach. The agent-based housing market testbed (ABHMT) is constructed. To verify the model, this paper sets two groups of control experiments. Through the experiments, we reveal 5 new findings in the field. The control experiments show the effectiveness of ABHMT. The comparison of real-life history scenarios and the simulation results shows the validity of the model. With the help of ABHMT, it is possible to simulate reality-alike situations to assist more market analyses for a certain application case.
Keywords: Expectation transformation; Economic behaviour; Market simulation; Agent-based model; Control experiment.
Information systems and software used by food businesses in Western Greece
by Bill Mitsos, Achilleas Kontogeorgos, Grigorios Beligiannis
Abstract: In the threshold of the 21th century even more businesses are trying to compete in the global competitive market, improve their function and gain a competitive advantage by using information systems and information technology. Food businesses in Western Greece use information systems to improve the management of their functions. They apply such systems in human resources, in finance and accounting, in sales and marketing, in operational functions and in production. The overwhelming majority of businesses use ERP systems while much fewer use other software packages like CRM, MRP, SRS, and HRM. Moreover, a few businesses use tailor made packages mainly to manage human resources, operational and production functions. Finally, there is a growth prospective in human recourses, operational and production functions to apply software packages vendors in the future. The contribution of this research to the existing literature is that it is the first research engaged in the adaptation of new digital formats of management and organization by traditional food companies in Western Greece.
Keywords: Information Systems; Software; Food Businesses; Western Greece.
An unsupervised classifier system using soft graph colouring
by Jorge Flores-Cruz, Pedro Lara-Velázquez, Miguel A. Gutiérrez-Andrade, Sergio Gerardo De-los-Cobos-Silva, Eric Alfredo Rincón-García, Roman Anselmo Mora-Gutiérrez, Antonin Ponsich
Abstract: Unsupervised classifiers do not require previous training to achieve their task, on the contrary, they are able to propose alternative classifications that make more sense using raw data instead of human interpretation. In this article an unsupervised classifier system using the soft graph colouring model is presented. This model has the ability to deal with risk and the probability of committing Type I or II errors, for instance, in medical diagnosis, where we want to minimise the risk of a mistaken prognosis. The proposed model is evaluated using some classical instances, and the results are compared with other classifiers, given in all cases solutions as good or better than supervised classifiers.
Keywords: pattern recognition; unsupervised classification; soft graph colouring; SGC; optimisation.
Scatter search for the soft graph colouring problem
by Hugo Eduardo Vásquez-Calderón, Pedro Lara-Velázquez, Sergio Gerardo De-los-Cobos-Silva, Miguel A. Gutiérrez-Andrade, Eric Alfredo Rincón-García, Roman Anselmo Mora-Gutiérrez, Antonin Ponsich
Abstract: The soft graph colouring problem is a model that has been used to solve problems such as scheduling under uncertainty, assignment of frequencies in the radioelectric spectrum, and pattern recognition that in certain problems can deal with risky items susceptible of error I or error II. This problem is NP-hard and requires efficient metaheuristic algorithms in order to solve it. In this paper, a scatter search algorithm is proposed and developed. This algorithm gives the best solutions in the test instances used to this day.
Keywords: scatter search; graph colouring; heuristic; optimisation.
PSO-3P for the portfolio optimisation problem
by José Carlos Javier Velasco, Sergio Gerardo De-los-Cobos-Silva, Eric Alfredo Rincón-García, Miguel Ángel Gutiérrez-Andrade, Roman Anselmo Mora-Gutiérrez, Antonin Ponsich, Pedro Lara-Velázquez
Abstract: Identifying risks and opportunities in an investment is an important issue for investors. There are different strategies used to maximise profits and minimise the risk. However, some problems cannot be efficiently solved using classical techniques of operations research. Thus, heuristic approach seems to be a good option to find high quality solutions in a limited amount of time. We propose a new variant of particle swarm optimisation named PSO-3P to solve the constrained portfolio optimisation problem. The proposed algorithm was tested over five well-known benchmark data sets and the obtained results proved to be highly competitive since they outperform those reported in the specialised literature in almost all tackled instances.
Keywords: PSO; PSO-3P; portfolio optimisation; Markowitz model.
A vehicle recall index and the sales impact by type of recall
by Robert Richardson, Heechang Shin, Oredola Soluade
Abstract: A vehicle recall index is created to measure the safety provided by a vehicle. Compared to J. D. Power's indices, the newly created index provides additional, useful information for consumers to use when buying a car. The importance of recall information is reflected in the negative impact on sales. The impact is measured using an event study methodology to evaluate the sales loss and time to recover from a major recall. The effect of two types of recalls is compared: 1) Toyota's unintentional problem from a defective gas pedal design causing injuries; 2) Volkswagen's intentional modification of the emission control unit to report false information resulting in no injuries. The model indicates that Toyota's sales declined for the subsequent five months, while Volkswagen's sales were affected for eleven months. The conclusion is that consumers responded more to the Volkswagen 'cheating' scandal in their purchase of a new car.
Keywords: auto safety; vehicle recall index; Toyota; Volkswagen.
Expert's opinion impact on financial risk management
by Martín Ezequiel Masci, María Teresa Casparri, Javier Ignacio García-Fronti
Abstract: The present work proposes to incorporate expert's opinions into the traditional calculation of financial risk management models. These traditional quantitative models ignore qualitative knowledge available (subjective and mathematically imprecise). To do this, this paper articulates value-at-risk (VaR) practioner's perspective with experts' opinion. This work focuses on the techniques associated with the mathematical approach as opposed to the behavioural one and within this approach, contrasting those axiomatic with the Bayesian. The authors argue that expert's judgement is relevant to market risk management. In particular, financial risks are especially sensitive to decision makers' opinions. Three strategies are proposed. Firstly, Bayesian techniques, secondly, fuzzy logic with VaR approximation through triangular fuzzy numbers (TFN) and thirdly, expert discussion through Delphi dynamics are considered.
Keywords: risk management; expert's opinion; value at risk; Bayesian techniques; fuzzy logic.
Linguistic work quality index
by María José Fernandez
Abstract: Work quality measures are fundamental to study population welfare. Labour activity occupies most of the workers' day, so quantifying people's welfare by means of work quality is central. Decent work indicators have the aim of establishing the characteristics of an employment relationship to verify that a job is carried out under conditions of freedom, equality, security and human dignity. The purpose of these indicators is to measure the degree to which a certain goal has been achieved in order to develop precise policies to improve people's standard of living. In this paper, a proposal is developed to measure decent work deficit in a linguistic way. A complete decent work index model is formulated using linguistic labels and the linguistic weighted average operator. Finally, some comments are made about the benefits of using linguistic variables when measuring work quality.
Keywords: linguistic models; linguistic weighted average; decent work index; labour conditions; subjectivity; linguistic index; work quality index; welfare.