Modelling and forecasting Oman crude oil prices using Box-Jenkins techniques Online publication date: Wed, 31-Dec-2014
by M.I. Ahmad
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets (IJTGM), Vol. 5, No. 1, 2012
Abstract: The Box-Jenkins' Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling approach has been applied for the time series analysis of monthly average prices of Oman crude oil taken over a period of 10 years. Several seasonal and non-seasonal ARIMA models were identified. These models were then estimated and compared for their adequacy using the significance of the parameter estimates, mean square errors and Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic. Based on these criterion a multiplicative seasonal model of the form ARIMA (1,1,5)x(1,1,1) was recommended for short term forecasting.
Online publication date: Wed, 31-Dec-2014
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Trade and Global Markets (IJTGM):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:
Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.
If you still need assistance, please email email@example.com