Using simulation to estimate the uncertainty in Union Electric Company's residential customer forecast
by Peter J. Weigel, Reuven R. Levary
International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology (IJCAT), Vol. 12, No. 2/3/4/5, 1999

Abstract: An estimation of uncertainty for Union Electric Company's residential customer forecast is made using Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology is an improvement over the deterministic simulation methodology the company used when it filed an integrated resource plan with the Missouri Public Service Commission in 1993. Two different sensitivity analysis methodologies are applied to the company's 1994 residential customer forecast. One methodology involves testing each discreet combination of model inputs within the uncertainty range. The other methodology involves simulating the distribution of model inputs. Neither methodology produces adequate results by itself. A combination of the two methodologies is used to efficiently determine an acceptable conclusion about forecast sensitivity.

Online publication date: Sun, 13-Jul-2003

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

 
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology (IJCAT):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

Username:        Password:          Forgotten your password?

Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com