Is it trustworthy to use GCMs data for future climatic predictions?
by Jatinder Kaur; Prabhjyot-Kaur; S.S. Sandhu; Shivani Kothiyal
International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW), Vol. 33, No. 1, 2024

Abstract: The temperature and rainfall output from general circulation models (GCMs) is being widely used in climate change studies. But, is it correct to assume that the outputs from these GCMs, even after appropriate bias removal are giving a true picture of the climate change projections? So, a study was conducted to compare the simulated temperature and rainfall of four models (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, FIO-ESM, GISS-E2-R and IPSL-CM5A-MR) with actual observed data during five years (2017-2021) period. The comparison was conducted during the summer (March-May), monsoon (June-September), post monsoon (October-November) and winter (December-February) season under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 6.0) at agroclimatic zone (AZ) I (Gurdaspur), II (Ballowal Saunkhri), III (Ludhiana), IV (Bathinda) and V (Faridkot). The analysis revealed that both overestimation and underestimation was observed for simulated temperature (maximum: Tmax and minimum: Tmin) and rainfall (RF) over monthly, annual and seasonal time scale.

Online publication date: Mon, 29-Apr-2024

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