Modelling trends in road crash frequency in Qatar State
by Galal M. Abdella; Khalifa N. Al-Khalifa; Maha A. Tayseer; Abdel Magid S. Hamouda
International Journal of Operational Research (IJOR), Vol. 34, No. 4, 2019

Abstract: The data-based regression models are widely popular in modelling the relationship between the crash frequencies and contributing factors. However, one common problem usually associated with the classical regression models is the multicollinearity, which leads to biased estimation of the model coefficients. This paper mainly focuses on the consequences of multicollinearity and introduces a multiple objective-based best-subset approach for promoting the accuracy of the road crash model in Qatar State. The prediction performance of the methodology is verified through a comparative study with two of well-known time series models, namely autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and double exponential smoothing (DES). The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is used to assess the ability of each model in maintaining minimum prediction errors. The methodology is illustrated by using a data set of road crashes in Qatar State, 2007-2013.

Online publication date: Tue, 16-Apr-2019

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Operational Research (IJOR):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

    Username:        Password:         

Forgotten your password?

Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email