A group decision-making model based on vague sets for emergency improvisation decision
by Lianying Zhang; Hui Zhou
International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences (IJADS), Vol. 9, No. 3, 2016

Abstract: Under the emergency circumstance of great uncertainty and time pressure, decision makers need to improvise and react with initiative to the unexpected things in most cases. To evaluate emergency plans systematically, we first identify nine prior criteria which cover both hazard assessment and risk reduction. A comprehensive weight of each decision maker is then obtained by synthesising the consistency weight and credibility weight. After that, we aggregate all the individual decisions into an aggregated decision vague matrix. Based on the matrix, we finally determine criteria weights by adopting the fuzzy entropy-based method. Compared with previous studies, the model can provide an optimisation path besides a ranking order of plans. As a guide for revising and updating emergency plans, the optimisation path can enhance our capacity to withstand current and future risks. The results of the case study demonstrate that the model is reliable and performs better than TOPSIS method. Also, we develop a decision support system for emergency improvisation decision based on the proposed model.

Online publication date: Wed, 14-Dec-2016

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