Authors: Lianying Zhang; Hui Zhou
Addresses: College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, 92 Weijin Rd, Nankai District, Tianjin 300072, China ' College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, 92 Weijin Rd, Nankai District, Tianjin 300072, China
Abstract: Under the emergency circumstance of great uncertainty and time pressure, decision makers need to improvise and react with initiative to the unexpected things in most cases. To evaluate emergency plans systematically, we first identify nine prior criteria which cover both hazard assessment and risk reduction. A comprehensive weight of each decision maker is then obtained by synthesising the consistency weight and credibility weight. After that, we aggregate all the individual decisions into an aggregated decision vague matrix. Based on the matrix, we finally determine criteria weights by adopting the fuzzy entropy-based method. Compared with previous studies, the model can provide an optimisation path besides a ranking order of plans. As a guide for revising and updating emergency plans, the optimisation path can enhance our capacity to withstand current and future risks. The results of the case study demonstrate that the model is reliable and performs better than TOPSIS method. Also, we develop a decision support system for emergency improvisation decision based on the proposed model.
Keywords: emergency improvisation; emergency decision making; vague sets; group decision making; optimisation; decision support systems; DSS; improvised decisions; emergency planning; emergency management; hazard assessment; risk reduction; risk assessment; fuzzy entropy; TOPSIS.
International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences, 2016 Vol.9 No.3, pp.283 - 306
Available online: 14 Dec 2016 *Full-text access for editors Access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article