Three possible scenarios for cleaner automobiles
by Michel Freyssenet
International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management (IJATM), Vol. 11, No. 4, 2011

Abstract: The quivering observed towards the alternative motorisations could be the starter of at least three scenarios. In the scenario of diversity, each automobile producer will be able to find its regional niche. In the scenario of progressiveness, only most powerful carmakers will survive. In the scenario of rupture, the newcomers and the innovating enterprises will have the possibility to engage a true 'second automobile revolution'. The winning scenario will prevail not because of its technical superiority or of its best environmental performances, but initially because of energy geopolicies and of firm profit strategies. For these reasons, the third scenario, which appears today most random, could impose, as the improbable petrol car scenario imposed one century ago.

Online publication date: Fri, 13-Mar-2015

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