Authors: Michel Freyssenet
Addresses: CNRS Paris, GERPISA International Network, 8 allée Fernand Braudel, 92160 Antony, France
Abstract: The quivering observed towards the alternative motorisations could be the starter of at least three scenarios. In the scenario of diversity, each automobile producer will be able to find its regional niche. In the scenario of progressiveness, only most powerful carmakers will survive. In the scenario of rupture, the newcomers and the innovating enterprises will have the possibility to engage a true |second automobile revolution|. The winning scenario will prevail not because of its technical superiority or of its best environmental performances, but initially because of energy geopolicies and of firm profit strategies. For these reasons, the third scenario, which appears today most random, could impose, as the improbable petrol car scenario imposed one century ago.
Keywords: automobile industry; transport systems; hybrid vehicles; electric vehicles; agro-fuel; energy geopolicies; environmental performance; profit strategies; automotive technology; cleaner cars.
International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, 2011 Vol.11 No.4, pp.300 - 311
Received: 08 May 2021
Accepted: 12 May 2021
Published online: 18 Oct 2011 *