The effect of hydrologic model development and calibration complexity on prediction accuracy
by Kristin L. Gilroy, Richard H. McCuen
International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology (IJHST), Vol. 1, No. 1/2, 2011

Abstract: Hydrologic modelling is central to the solution of many water quantity and quality issues. As the complexity of these issues increases, model complexity increases. The purpose of this research was to determine the effects of model complexity on hydrologic model prediction accuracy. Model complexity can enter through the formulation of the model structure as well as the selection of calibration data and criteria. A complex hydrologic model was developed and then simplified based on structural complexity and the change in accuracy was assessed. The results showed that complex models containing excessive low sensitivity parameters did not significantly improve prediction accuracy. However, a lack of complete representation of the physical processes of the hydrologic cycle did affect prediction accuracy. Anomalies in the calibration data can suggest poor prediction accuracy regardless of actual model prediction capabilities. And calibrating to meet specific design criteria should be avoided to ensure optimal overall prediction accuracy. Guidelines were developed to improve future development and application of hydrologic models.

Online publication date: Wed, 29-Oct-2014

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

 
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology (IJHST):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

Username:        Password:          Forgotten your password?

Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com