Managing project task time uncertainty with probabilistic time buffers Online publication date: Tue, 30-Sep-2014
by Robert L. Bregman
International Journal of Advanced Operations Management (IJAOM), Vol. 3, No. 1, 2011
Abstract: Large-scale projects often include numerous tasks with uncertain durations. This results in complex probabilistic project networks that are difficult to manage because there are no well-defined critical paths. Since the joint probability of successfully completing all paths in these project networks before pre-defined due dates can be very low, it is beneficial to position time buffers to help ensure the completion of subtasks and the overall project. Unfortunately, because the number of potential buffer locations is large and the benefits of each involve numerous complex probabilistic interactions with other tasks and buffers, the best solution is difficult to determine. In addition, the best plans are likely to change over time as uncertain outcomes are realised and new information about future tasks is introduced. In response to this problem, this research introduces and tests a new approach that can be used to position (and reposition) time buffers at each project review.
Online publication date: Tue, 30-Sep-2014
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Advanced Operations Management (IJAOM):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:
Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.
If you still need assistance, please email firstname.lastname@example.org