Title: How might Shandong achieve the 2030 CO2 emissions target? A system dynamics analysis from the perspective of energy supply-side structural reform in China

Authors: Yingying Ma; Zaixu Zhang; Feifei Zhang; Zhiyang Liu

Addresses: School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, China; Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering Department, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, USA ' School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), No. 66, Changjiang West Road, Huangdao District, Qingdao, 266580, China ' School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), No. 66, Changjiang West Road, Huangdao District, Qingdao, 266580, China ' School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), No. 66, Changjiang West Road, Huangdao District, Qingdao, 266580, China

Abstract: This paper takes Shandong Province as an example to forecast the CO2 emission from 2017 to 2030 by system dynamics under four designed scenarios. The results indicate that despite the coal consumption, CO2 emission and the CO2 emission intensity of low intensity scenario and medium intensity scenario both decrease compared to the results of current scenario. However, neither the coal consumption peak year nor the CO2 emission peak year is before 2030. We find that with the high intensity scenario, the CO2 emission would peak on 2027 and the coal consumption would peak on 2021. Besides, the CO2 emission intensity of 2030 is reduce by almost 80% of 2005 level. Finally, conclusions and policy implications are concluded based on the simulations results.

Keywords: energy supply-side structural reform; CO2 emissions reduction; energy consumption; economic growth; system dynamics model.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2019.099801

International Journal of Global Warming, 2019 Vol.17 No.4, pp.357 - 372

Received: 08 Jun 2018
Accepted: 26 Feb 2019

Published online: 21 May 2019 *

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