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Title: Peak phosphate in Jordan

Authors: Awwad Titi; Rami Al Rawashdeh; Khalid Al Tarawneh

Addresses: Department of Mining Engineering, College of Engineering, Al-Hussein Bin Talal University, P.O. Box 20 Ma'an, Jordan ' Department of Mining Engineering, College of Engineering, Al-Hussein Bin Talal University, P.O. Box 20 Ma'an, Jordan ' Department of Mining Engineering, College of Engineering, Al-Hussein Bin Talal University, P.O. Box 20 Ma'an, Jordan

Abstract: The benefits and impacts of mineral resource extraction and processing in Jordan are changing and whilst our vast endowment of phosphate will not be exhausted soon, extraction and production are becoming more challenging. This paper establishes a conceptual analysis of peak phosphate as a powerful tool and it uses Gompertz and logistic models for measuring Jordan's phosphate peak year, peak production and depletion time. Our results showed that based on logistic and Gompertz models results, Jordan's phosphate is likely to peak in 2044 and 2048, respectively. Phosphate production has already passed the peak year in Al-Hasa and Al-Abiad mines. The logistic model for Jordan phosphate which has a peak year of 2048 and a production volume of 15.2 million tonnes matched exactly the Gompertz model for Al-Shidiyah mine which confirms that Jordan's future phosphate production will totally depend on Al-Shidiyah mine.

Keywords: peak phosphate; Jordan; resource depletion; Hubbert curve; Gompertz model; logistic model.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMME.2019.098303

International Journal of Mining and Mineral Engineering, 2019 Vol.10 No.1, pp.27 - 50

Accepted: 16 Oct 2018
Published online: 06 Mar 2019 *

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