Title: PROMETHEE-MP: a generalisation of PROMETHEE for multi-period evaluations under uncertainty

Authors: Bruno Urli; Anissa Frini; Sarah Ben Amor

Addresses: Unité départementale des sciences de la gestion, UQAR, campus de Rimouski, 300, allée des Ursulines, C.P. 3300, succ. A G5L 3A1, Rimouski (Québec), Canada ' Unité départementale des sciences de la gestion UQAR, campus de Lévis, 1595, boulevard Alphonse-Desjardins, G6V 0A6, Lévis (Québec), Canada ' Telfer School of Management, 55 Laurier Avenue East, K1N 6N5, Ottawa (Ontario), Canada

Abstract: Sustainability is a major concern and decisions have to be made based on the triple bottom line while simultaneously evaluating the economic, social and environmental impacts. In this context, decisions generally have a planning horizon of several years or even decades and consequently need to be evaluated in the short, medium and long term under uncertainty. This paper intends to tackle this complexity and proposes a multi-period generalisation of PROMETHEE under uncertainty, named PROMETHEE-MP, which is based on a double aggregation (a multi-criteria aggregation and a temporal aggregation), followed by an exploitation phase. The multi-criteria aggregation step uses a generalisation of PROMETHEE III in a situation of random uncertainty with intervals generated by Monte Carlo simulation. For temporal aggregation, we use a measure of distance between pre-orders that captures indifference, strict preference, weak preference and incomparability relations. Finally, we illustrate the proposed PROMETHEE-MP in the context of sustainable forest management.

Keywords: multi-period evaluation; PROMETHEE; Monte Carlo simulations; sustainability; uncertainty.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMCDM.2019.098042

International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making, 2019 Vol.8 No.1, pp.13 - 37

Received: 10 Oct 2017
Accepted: 27 Sep 2018

Published online: 21 Feb 2019 *

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