Title: Forthcoming changes in world population distribution and global connectivity: implications for global foresight

Authors: Julia Zinkina; Sergey Shulgin; Alexey Andreev; Ivan Aleshkovski; Andrey Korotayev

Addresses: The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Prospect Vernadskogo, 84, Bldg 9, 119571, Moscow, Russian Federation ' The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Prospect Vernadskogo, 84, Bldg 9, 119571, Moscow, Russian Federation ' Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskiye Gory, 84, Bldg 13-14, 119991, Moscow, Russian Federation ' Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskiye Gory, 84, Bldg 13-14, 119991, Moscow, Russian Federation ' National Research University 'Higher School of Economics', Myasnitskaya St., 20, 101000, Moscow, Russian Federation

Abstract: For the first-world citizens, globalisation seems to be an all-pervasive phenomenon. Our research reveals that global connectivity rates differ dramatically for various countries and correspondingly, their populations. What will this picture look like in, say, 50 years? We combine demographic projections with our knowledge on the recent dynamics of national rates of global connectivity to estimate the proportion of world population which is expected to live in countries with varying rates of global connectivity. We show that the distribution of world population among the states with various rates of global connectivity is bound to experience significant changes in the coming decades, which should be taken into account at various attempts of providing global foresight.

Keywords: globalisation; measuring globalisation; demographic projections; global connectivity; world population; global population forecast; global foresight.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2018.097086

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2018 Vol.13 No.3/4, pp.169 - 186

Received: 22 Nov 2017
Accepted: 25 Apr 2018
Published online: 18 Dec 2018 *

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