Title: Future realities of climate change impacts: an integrated assessment study of Canada

Authors: Mohammad Khaled Akhtar; Slobodan P. Simonovic; Jacob Wibe; James MacGee

Addresses: River Engineering and Technical Services, Alberta Environment and Parks, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada ' Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada ' PricewaterhouseCoopers, Calgary, Alberta, Canada ' Department of Economics, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada

Abstract: This paper presents an integrated assessment model for use with climate policy decision making in Canada. The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI_CDN represents Canada within the global society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system. The model uses a system dynamics simulation approach to investigate the impacts of climate change in Canada and policy options for adapting to changing global conditions. The disaggregation techniques allow ANEMI_CDN to show results with various temporal resolutions. Two Canadian policy scenarios are presented as illustrative examples to map policy impacts on key model variables, including population, water-stress, food production, energy consumption, and emissions under changing climate over this century. The main finding is a significant impact of a carbon tax on energy consumption. Two policy scenario simulations provide additional insights to policy makers regarding the choice of adaptation/mitigation options along with their implementation time.

Keywords: system dynamics simulation; climate change; integrated assessment modelling; society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system; water resources management; disaggregation; global warming; Canada.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2019.096761

International Journal of Global Warming, 2019 Vol.17 No.1, pp.59 - 88

Received: 19 Feb 2018
Accepted: 30 May 2018
Published online: 10 Dec 2018 *

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