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Title: How to model a complex national energy system? Developing an integrated energy systems framework for long-term energy and emissions analysis

Authors: Matthew Davis; Md. Ahiduzzaman; Amit Kumar

Addresses: 10-397 Donadeo Innovation Centre for Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1H9, Canada ' Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Salna, Gazipur-1706, Bangladesh; 10-397 Donadeo Innovation Centre for Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1H9, Canada ' 10-263 Donadeo Innovation Centre for Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1H9, Canada

Abstract: In order to manage an energy system responsibly and maintain its benefits indefinitely, science-based decision-making should be valued during energy policy making and energy management. This research presents a framework for developing a scientific tool with the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) system for evaluating energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation pathways for a national energy system. The framework developed is applied to create a bottom-up (technology-explicit), data-intensive (over 2 million data points), multi-regional (13 integrated regions) energy model of Canada, one of the world's most energy and emission intensive nations. Model accuracy was validated with historical data showing emissions varied 0-1.2% proving the framework can provide accurate assessments. The model was used to generate baseline Canadian energy-emissions outlooks to 2050 that do not currently exist in literature. The developed framework provides robust capabilities that are helpful for energy efficiency analysis, energy planning, and GHG mitigation assessment.

Keywords: energy-environmental systems model; GHG emissions; Canada; energy outlook; emission outlook; energy system; bottom-up; integrated; accounting-based; energy analysis; emission analysis; energy policy; energy management; long-range energy alternatives planning; LEAP.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2019.096759

International Journal of Global Warming, 2019 Vol.17 No.1, pp.23 - 58

Received: 27 Dec 2017
Accepted: 29 May 2018

Published online: 19 Nov 2018 *

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