Title: Statistically downscaled projections of CORDEX South Asia using quantile mapping approach over Pakistan region

Authors: Burhan Ahmad; Ghulam Rasul

Addresses: Research and Development Division, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Headquarters Office, Pitrus Bukhari Road, Sector H-8/2, Islamabad, Pakistan ' Research and Development Division, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Headquarters Office, Pitrus Bukhari Road, Sector H-8/2, Islamabad, Pakistan

Abstract: Apprehending regional scale climate information from global scale climate models brings uncertainties primarily due to insufficient incorporation of climate information at local scale. We implemented the quantile mapping (QM) approach based on in-situ data that removed the systematic biases in the regional scale simulations of the CORDEX South Asia data for maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation that covers the Pakistani domain. Post processed results were modelled into probability density functions (PDFs) to identify climate change shifts in various statistical moments. The PDF-based analysis for temperature reported negatively skewed patterns in distributions for projections as compared to baseline which forced shifting of percentiles and means towards extreme magnitude regimes. The PDF-based analysis for precipitation displayed lower kurtotic values with fatter and lengthier tails in the projections as compared to baseline which suggested higher frequencies of precipitation extremes to occur in the times to come.

Keywords: statistical downscaling; quantile mapping; CORDEX South Asia; climate projections; probability density functions; PDFs; Pakistan region; skewness; kurtosis; regional warming; extremes.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2018.095996

International Journal of Global Warming, 2018 Vol.16 No.4, pp.435 - 460

Received: 15 Sep 2017
Accepted: 11 May 2018
Published online: 06 Nov 2018 *

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