Title: Fuzzy time series theory application for tourism demand

Authors: Tsung-Yu Chou; Ming-Tao Chou; An-Chi Liu

Addresses: Department of Distribution Management, National Chin-Yi University of Technology, Taichung City, Taiwan ' Department of Aviation and Maritime Transportation Management, Chang Jung Christian University, Tainan City, Taiwan ' Department of Marketing & Logistics Management, Yu Da University of Science and Technology, Zaoqiao, Taiwan

Abstract: This paper offers a study of Taiwan's tourism data in order to establish a fuzzy time series model that can be used to analyse the relationship between remuneration and future tourist arrival rates of change. The results of the analysis are as follows: (a) the model showed that the predictive value of the 2015 tourist is 8,694,639 and its trading range fluctuates (2,551,595, 8,694,639); (b) the tourist index rate of return remains positive, and the prediction error within the group averages 0.24%; an error range of less than 5% indicates a good prediction model, and suggests that this paper can serve as a useful reference to stakeholders.

Keywords: fuzzy; tourism forecast; time series.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSEM.2017.095445

International Journal of Services, Economics and Management, 2017 Vol.8 No.3, pp.169 - 179

Accepted: 05 Dec 2017
Published online: 27 Apr 2018 *

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