Authors: Zhiru Juan; Weidong Huang; Haiyan Wang; Jie Cao
Addresses: School of Economics and Management, Huaiyin Normal University, 223301, China ' School of Management, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, 210003, China ' School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, 210096, China ' School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, 210044, China
Abstract: Aiming at preparedness and response to emergency events, this paper studies emergency resource replenishment decisions made by an irrational decision maker. The decision maker would exhibit system neglect effect, in the sense that the decision maker reacts primarily to signals they received and secondarily to the underlying system that produced the signals. By comparing the performances of threshold methods and smoothing strategies, we identify the impacts of system neglect effect on the resource replenishment decisions and offer insights into when high-consequence, low-probability events may occur. The results show that threshold method is more attractive than smoothing method in emergency management and the existence of system neglect may improve the efficiency of the replenishment decisions generated by smoothing strategies. The findings are meaningful to preparedness and response to emergency events and help manage the influence of system neglect effect when replenishing emergency resources.
Keywords: forecasting; system neglect; smoothing strategy; threshold method.
International Journal of Internet Manufacturing and Services, 2018 Vol.5 No.4, pp.340 - 349
Received: 19 Sep 2017
Accepted: 30 Oct 2017
Published online: 28 Aug 2018 *