Title: Decomposition of regional and sectoral economic impacts of climate change under new scenarios

Authors: Shin Sakaue; Koichi Yamaura; Toyoaki Washida

Addresses: Faculty of Economics, Kumamoto Gakuen University, 2-5-1 Oe Kumamoto 862-8680, Japan ' Department of International, Environmental and Agricultural Science, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, 3-5-8 Saiwai-cho, Fuchu-shi, Tokyo 183-8509, Japan ' Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Sophia University, 7-1 Kioicho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 102-8554, Japan

Abstract: This study decomposes the heterogeneous regional and sectoral impacts of climate change using shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios. We separate value-added under the various scenario combinations into direct climate change damage costs, mitigation costs and other (indirect) value-added using a dynamic version of the evaluation model for environmental damage and adaption (EMEDA). In the decomposed EMEDA results, we find that: 1) each region has different rates of change in its direct climate change costs and mitigation costs. For example, Asia, the former Soviet Union, and the Middle East and Africa incur greater costs than the OECD and Latin America; 2) other value-added is largest in primary and tertiary industries, while mitigation costs are largest in the secondary sector; 3) the highest decomposed costs among the scenario combinations occur under the SSPs-RCP2.6 scenario.

Keywords: EMEDA; integrated assessment model; IAMs; CGE models; shared socio-economic pathways; SSPs; representative concentration pathways; RCPs; global warming; climate change; regional impacts; sectoral impacts; Paris Agreement.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2018.094560

International Journal of Global Warming, 2018 Vol.16 No.2, pp.229 - 260

Received: 22 Feb 2017
Accepted: 09 Feb 2018
Published online: 06 Sep 2018 *

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