Title: Perceived uncertainties regarding socio-technological transformations: towards a framework

Authors: Ineke S.M. Meijer, Marko P. Hekkert, Jan Faber, Ruud E.H.M. Smits

Addresses: Department of Innovation Studies, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, PO Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands. ' Department of Innovation Studies, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, PO Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands. ' Department of Innovation Studies, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, PO Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands. ' Department of Innovation Studies, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, PO Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands

Abstract: Socio-technological transformations are difficult to achieve. Perceived uncertainties that hinder the innovation decisions of involved actors play a key role in this process. Determining how perceived uncertainties differ between types of actors and between transformation phases (pre-development, take-off, acceleration, stabilisation) can provide essential insights for managing such transformations. This article aims at presenting a framework for analysing the role of uncertainties in socio-technological transformations. In this framework, we classify uncertainties according to their source (technology, resources, competitors, suppliers, consumers, politics), nature (knowledge, variability) and level (low to high) and relate this uncertainty typology to the different transformation phases and involved actors. Finally, we discuss implications for policy.

Keywords: innovation; perceived uncertainties; socio-technological transformation; transformation phases; uncertainty typology; transition.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2006.009316

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2006 Vol.2 No.2, pp.214 - 240

Published online: 16 Mar 2006 *

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