Authors: Mahesh S. Kumar; S.P. Anbuudayasankar; Sreeniketh Variyer
Addresses: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Mangalam College of Engineering, Kottayam, Kerala 686631, India ' Department of Mechanical Engineering, Amrita School of Engineering, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, Amrita University, Coimbatore 641112, India ' Production and Planning, Bharath Petroleum Corporation Limited, Kochi, India
Abstract: This study presents a new planning algorithm for petroleum products with fluctuating demand. The proposed algorithm is tested with analysing and forecasting bitumen sales of a refinery. The algorithm presented in this study utilises decomposition forecasting with scenario analysis and optimisation. We introduced a risk measure factor in the objective function that would help to forecast the sales with more accuracy. Scenario analysis is conducted to analyse the bitumen sales and production at different conditions. The proposed algorithm would generate a favourable refinery operation schedule that would enable the production and sales with more refinery margin. The planning algorithm is validated with a case study.
Keywords: petroleum supply chain; PSC; forecast; scheduling; decomposition model.
International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, 2018 Vol.14 No.2/3, pp.170 - 196
Received: 26 Jun 2015
Accepted: 09 Jun 2016
Published online: 02 Jan 2018 *