Title: Trade concentration and dynamics of the Norwegian imports: an application of R-MANOVA model

Authors: Yohannes Yebabe Tesfay; Per Bjarte Solibakke

Addresses: CREE, Inc., 4600, Silicon Drive, Durham, North Carolina, 27703, USA; Faculty of Economics, Informatics and Social Change, Molde University College, Molde, 6402, Norway ' NTNU Ålesund, Larsgårdsveien 2, P.O. Box 1517, Ålesund, 6025, Norway

Abstract: This article proposes to analyse trade concentration and dynamics of the Norwegian import's expenditures by applying the two-way random effect MANOVA (R-MANOVA) model. The MANOVA model factors considered in this econometric analysis are origin continents or countries (spatial effects) and the business cycles (dynamic effects). The R-MANOVA model fit estimation results confirms that the Norwegian import trade is sustainable in both short and long run controlling for the effect of both origin continent and business cycles. More importantly, the expenditure and the share of Norwegian imports across the continents show considerable dynamics. The overall econometric estimation results suggest that across all continents the Norwegian import expenditure is increasing with time. However, the share of the Norwegian import expenditures across continents is relatively stable. The analysis confirms that European exporters will be the leading partners for Norwegian import expenditures in future trade patterns. The ranking of the remaining continents in descending order will be Asia and Oceania, North and Central America, South America and Africa.

Keywords: trade concentration; trade dynamics; MANOVA models; Norway.

DOI: 10.1504/IJLEG.2018.090505

International Journal of Logistics Economics and Globalisation, 2018 Vol.7 No.1, pp.71 - 104

Received: 06 May 2017
Accepted: 17 Jul 2017

Published online: 08 Mar 2018 *

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