Title: The association of weather variables with rice production and simulation of agro-adaptation measure for northeast Thailand: evidence from panel data model

Authors: Nirote Sinnarong; Kotchaporn Pongcharoen; Kasama Thaeye; Siriporn Phuntulee; Worawut Ngampiboonwet

Addresses: Applied Economics Program, Maejo University, Chiangmai, 50290, Thailand ' College of Business and Law, University of Canterbury, 8140, New Zealand ' Economics Program, Maejo University-Phrae Campus, Phrae, 54140, Thailand ' General Education Program, Maejo University-Phrae Campus, Phrae, 54140, Thailand ' Department of Agroforestry, Maejo University-Phrae Campus, Phrae, 54140, Thailand

Abstract: Climate change poses a significant threat to agriculture and global food supply. This study aims to estimate the potential impacts of weather on rice production and agro-adaptation in northeast Thailand. Based on the rice production and weather data from 17 provinces over the 1989-2014 periods, the feasible generalised least squares are explored to obtain reliable estimates. The results showed that an increase in the temperature during the crop-growing season has adverse effects on the rice production. The rainfall increases are found to increase rice production levels. The numerical simulations provided evidence that altering planting can reduce the impact of weather on rice production risk by 25.16 to 57.95% for the possible adaptations. Applying a new rice variety can reduce rice production risk by 35.50 to 44.56%. Simulation results revealed that the decrease in impact of weather on rice production can be mitigated significantly using proper agro adaptations practices.

Keywords: rice production; weather; climate change; panel data; agro-adaptation; Thailand.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2018.090400

International Journal of Global Warming, 2018 Vol.14 No.3, pp.330 - 355

Available online: 08 Mar 2018 *

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