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Title: Comparison of two statistical climate downscaling models: a case study in the Beijing region, China

Authors: Binbin Guo; Jing Zhang; Tingbao Xu

Addresses: Beijing Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Geographic Information System, Capital Normal University, #105 West 3rd Ring Road North, Beijing, 100048, China ' Beijing Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Geographic Information System, Capital Normal University, #105 West 3rd Ring Road North, Beijing, 100048, China ' Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

Abstract: Climate change can have a significant impact on the hydrological cycle. This article focuses on the comparison of the statistical down scaling model (SDSM) and the automated statistical downscaling model (ASD), which are applied to global climate model (GCM) predictions for the Beijing region. Through the analysis of the evaluation indices in the calibration and validation periods, the results show that both downscaling models simulate the temperature and evapotranspiration well, but the simulation of precipitation is not as good as that of other climate factors. The overall performance of ASD model is slightly superior to that of SDSM model, especially in the process of predictor's selection. The future climate change downscaled by the two models shows an analogous trend as well. The temperature and evapotranspiration show a general increasing trend. The precipitation shows a different trend with an increasing trend in the south and a decreasing trend in the north.

Keywords: HadCM3; statistical downscaling model; SDSM; automated statistical downscaling; ASD; climate change; Beijing area; China.

DOI: 10.1504/IJW.2018.090186

International Journal of Water, 2018 Vol.12 No.1, pp.22 - 38

Available online: 19 Feb 2018 *

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