Title: Assessing and modelling transport delays risk in supply chains

Authors: Chokri Lajimi; Amine Boufaied; Ouajdi Korbaa

Addresses: Modelling of Automated Reasoning Systems, Research Lab, University of Sousse, Tunisia ' Modelling of Automated Reasoning Systems, Research Lab, University of Sousse, Tunisia ' Modelling of Automated Reasoning Systems, Research Lab, University of Sousse, Tunisia

Abstract: We propose in this paper, an approach for monitoring the dynamic evolution of risk associated to delays affecting the transportation operations. We use a new deployment of the failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) organised around the dreaded scenarios and allowing a better representation of undesired cause-effect chains associated to the occurrence of critical events. This is a quantification technique to evaluate, at discrete points, the probability of the dreaded scenarios and their effect on the cost. The exploitation of this method is combined with a monitoring mechanism able to supervise the evolution of risk states during the course of operations in a logistic process. The operating states, involving threats, are represented in a model based on Petri nets. The obtained model is used to reproduce the behaviour of the logistic process, and then simulate the progress of their operations both in nominal mode and in degraded mode.

Keywords: dynamic risk evolution; risk assessment; risk probability; transport delay; monitoring and supervision; modelling; time Petri net; supply chain; risk management; performance indicators.

DOI: 10.1504/IJAOM.2017.089980

International Journal of Advanced Operations Management, 2017 Vol.9 No.4, pp.225 - 245

Available online: 08 Feb 2018 *

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