Authors: Jeyhun Mikayilov; Fakhri Hasanov; Sabuhi Yusifov
Addresses: King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, P.O. Box 88550, Riyadh 11672, Saudi Arabia; Department of Statistics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Istiqlaliyyat Str., 6, Baku, Azerbaijan; Institute for Scientific Research on Economic Reforms, H. Zardabi Avenue, 88a, AZ 1011, Baku, Azerbaijan ' King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, P.O. Box 88550, Riyadh 11672, Saudi Arabia; Research Program on Forecasting, Economics Department The George Washington University, 2115 G Street, NW, Washington DC, 20052, USA; Department of Socio-Economic Modelling, Institute of Control Systems, B. Vahabzade Street 9, Baku, AZ1141, Azerbaijan ' Department of Public Administration, Azerbaijan Technology University, Shah Ismayil Hatai Ave., 103, Ganja, Azerbaijan; The Institute of Economics, ANAS, Azerbaijan Republic, Baku city, av. H.Javid, 115, AZ1143, Azerbaijan
Abstract: We studied impacts of population groups of 15-64 and 65-above on residential electricity use in Kazakhstan in the STIRPAT framework. Unlike earlier studies for Kazakhstan in the STIRPAT framework, we applied time series cointegration and error correction methods. Results from the autoregressive distributed lags bounds testing approach indicate a significant impact of the age group of 15-64 on the residential electricity use in long-run, however, the age group of 65-above has only short-run effects and affluence has no effect. Another finding is that, 21% of short-run disequilibrium can be corrected towards long-run equilibrium during a year. Policymakers should consider the trend of the population group of 15-64 in their decision about the long-run stance of the residential electricity consumption. The trend suggests an implementation of energy conservative policy and increasing efficiency of its usage. Another policy implication is that household's electricity consumption is not income dependent maybe due to cheap electricity prices subsidised by the government. In the short-run, policy makers should consider the age group of 65-above among other factors in their implementations. Moreover, they should be careful in making any policy shock to the residential electricity consumption system, because convergence towards long-run equilibrium path takes about six years.
Keywords: age groups; residential electricity consumption; STIRPAT; Kazakhstan; cointegration; error correction modelling; income; Commonwealth of Independent States; CIS.
International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, 2018 Vol.14 No.1, pp.114 - 132
Received: 16 Feb 2016
Accepted: 26 Jun 2016
Published online: 23 Oct 2017 *