Title: Future climatic changes in Lidder basin of west Himalayan region

Authors: Yasir Altaf; Manzoor A. Ahangar; Mohammad Fahimuddin

Addresses: Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology-Srinagar, J&K, India ' Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology-Srinagar, J&K, India ' Principal Water Resources Engineer, DHI India Environment Pvt Ltd., New Delhi, 110020, India

Abstract: In the present study, the multiple linear regression technique was used to downscale outputs from six different global climate models to a local scale in the Lidder river basin. Downscaling was carried out by relating the monthly predictors for A1B emission scenario (AR-4) obtained from six different global climate models with the monthly predictands. The predictorpredictand relationships were found out with reasonable values of coefficient of determination (R2). Subsequently, future monthly and annual projections for precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature up to the end of 21st century using the data from six different GCMs were found out. The results obtained were validated with observed data for the years 2011 to 2014 which showed excellent comparison particularly for the models CGCM3, ECHAM5 and HadCM3. The results obtained using different GCMs show that the climate of the region will be warmer and wetter by the end of 21st century relative to early 21st century.

Keywords: general circulation models; downscaling; multiple linear regression; MLR; predictors.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2017.086961

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2017 Vol.7 No.3, pp.303 - 321

Received: 04 Apr 2016
Accepted: 08 Oct 2016

Published online: 26 Sep 2017 *

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