Title: An ARIMA model for the forecasting of healthcare waste generation in the Garhwal region of Uttarakhand, India

Authors: Ankur Chauhan; Amol Singh

Addresses: Department of Operations Management, Indian Institute of Management Rohtak, MD University Campus, Rohtak, Haryana 124001, India ' Department of Operations Management, Indian Institute of Management Rohtak, MD University Campus, Rohtak, Haryana 124001, India

Abstract: This study has been carried out to analyse and forecast the quantities of healthcare waste generated from the hospitals of Garhwal region of Uttarakhand, India. In this study, a suitable autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been developed, on the basis of different statistical parameters, for the forecasting of healthcare waste. The analysis of results on the basis of the statistical parameters such as adjusted R-square value, mean square error and mean absolute percentage error; the AR(1)MA(1) model has been found as the best ARIMA model for the forecasting of healthcare waste generation. The daily data of healthcare waste generation has been used to develop the ARIMA model in this study. The ARIMA model developed in this study would help the waste disposal firm to plan its waste collection and disposal strategy-related decisions in future.

Keywords: ARIMA model; capacity planning; forecasting; healthcare waste; time series.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSOI.2017.086587

International Journal of Services Operations and Informatics, 2017 Vol.8 No.4, pp.352 - 366

Received: 26 Aug 2016
Accepted: 17 Mar 2017

Published online: 08 Sep 2017 *

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