Title: Projections of food demand and supply in Bangladesh: implications on food security and water demand

Authors: S.M. Fakhrul Islam; Rezaul Karim Talukder

Addresses: Agricultural Credit Department, Small and Marginal Sized Farmer's Agricultural Productivity Improvement and Diversification Financing Project, Annex Builiding 27th Floor, Bangladesh Bank Head Office, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh ' Meeting the Undernutrition Challenge Program, FAO, Ministry of Food, 16 Abdul Gony Road, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh

Abstract: The objectives of this study was to project demand for and supply of key food commodities in Bangladesh by 2030 and 2050 and assess their demand-supply gap. The scope of the forecast was confined with selected 11 food items and used almost ideal demand system (AIDS) and auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Projections showed that food consumption in Bangladesh will diversify over time, cereals will provide a major part of the calorie intake, but their share in total calorie supply will decrease by 2030 and 2050. The consumption of animal products and non-cereal crops will have increasing trend during the same time period. The projections showed that Bangladesh will have surplus productions of rice and maize by 2030 and deficit productions of wheat, potato, pulses, vegetables, meat, egg and fresh water fish. It will have surplus productions of rice, maize, potato, vegetable and milk by 2050 and deficit productions of wheat, pulses, fruits, meat and fresh water fish. Water demand for Boro rice production in 2030 and 2050 will increase considerably and may cause much stress on ground water source.

Keywords: projections food supply and demand; AIDS and ARIMA models; food security; water demand; Bangladesh.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSAMI.2017.085663

International Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Management and Informatics, 2017 Vol.3 No.2, pp.125 - 153

Received: 27 Dec 2016
Accepted: 24 Feb 2017
Published online: 05 Aug 2017 *

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