Authors: Antonio Bianco
Addresses: Department of Economic and Social Studies, Sapienza University of Rome, 00185, Italy
Abstract: Current regulation in EU cohesion policy lays emphasis on ex ante impact evaluations. This kind of evaluation technique is based on the assumption of a theory of the process of change ('theory of change') the policy is meant to activate. The application of theories of change based on a concept of equilibrium is likely to fail capturing essential factors at play in actual dynamics: by definition, equilibrium is a situation in which change (learning) is not liable to occur. Having this policy issue in mind, the essentials of Amendola and Gaffard's sequential model are here presented: its Hicksian grounds, its basic concepts, its implied perspective on policy making and, eventually, a simplified accounting version. This version of Amendola and Gaffard's out-of-equilibrium model is meant to serve as a basis to develop purpose-built theories of change: their associated accounts can be employed to devise a system of satellite accounts that is especially fitted out to monitor and thus evaluate the impact of a policy intervention.
Keywords: theory-based impact evaluation; theory of change; sunk costs; liquidity constraints; liquidity shifts; reserve funds; satellite accounts; Amendola and Gaffard; sequential model; policy making; policy intervention; ex ante impact evaluation; accounting.
International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, 2017 Vol.7 No.3, pp.225 - 237
Received: 31 Jan 2015
Accepted: 23 Sep 2015
Published online: 10 Jul 2017 *