Title: Risk assessment within agricultural production: soil conservation strategies and its environmental and economic aspects - a case study for Bavaria

Authors: Rico Hübner; Jie Lu; Martin Wiesmeier

Addresses: Chair for Strategic Landscape Planning and Management, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany ' Chair for Strategic Landscape Planning and Management, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany ' Chair of Soil Science, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany

Abstract: The definition of risk within agricultural production systems is summarised and an overview of different sources of risks in agriculture is provided. Focusing on risks associated with the soil, the influencing factors are analysed in detail. From this, a simple methodology for a probabilistic modelling approach to evaluate the effect of the different cropping tillage system and soil conservation practices is developed concerning environmental as well as economic aspects. Selected uncertainty factors, such as rainfall and crop yields are simulated using the program @RISK. With this method, the possible future performance of various combinations of crop and management practice under given environmental conditions can be simulated and compared, considering not only soil erosion control but also increasing farmers' income.

Keywords: risk modelling; soil erosion; productivity; gross margin; agri-environmental schemes; universal soil loss equation; USLE.

DOI: 10.1504/IJARGE.2017.084031

International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology, 2017 Vol.13 No.1, pp.1 - 20

Available online: 02 May 2017 *

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