Authors: Lev S. Belyaev, Oleg V. Marchenko, Sergei V. Solomin
Addresses: Energy System Institute, 130 Lermontov Street, Irkutsk 664033, Russia. ' Energy System Institute, 130 Lermontov Street, Irkutsk 664033, Russia. ' Energy System Institute, 130 Lermontov Street, Irkutsk 664033, Russia
Abstract: The greenhouse gas emissions are mainly caused by the use of organic fuel. Global constraints on the emissions of greenhouse gases (first of all CO2 as the main greenhouse gas) will greatly affect the energy structure of the world especially in some regions. An optimisation model of world energy (GEM-10R) was used to study long-term prospects of world energy development in general and wind energy development in particular. The results of the calculations for four scenarios of energy development in the 21st century are analysed. In Scenario 1 (|business as usual|) there are no constraints on CO2 emissions. Scenario 2 supposes moderate constraints on CO2 emissions; Scenario 3, rigid constraints on emissions and simultaneously moderate constraints on nuclear energy, that is, alternative energy resource to organic fuels; Scenario 4, rigid constraints on CO2 emissions and moratorium on nuclear energy development. The possible scale of wind energy development in the 21st century is analysed for the above four scenarios in the context of the development of competing energy sources.
Keywords: wind energy; wind power; world energy system; Global Energy Model; GEM; greenhouse gas emissions; energy development; CO2 emissions; carbon dioxide emissions; climate change; nuclear energy; nuclear power; constraints.
International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, 2005 Vol.3 No.4, pp.324 - 341
Available online: 17 Dec 2005 *Full-text access for editors Access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article