Title: The unleashed dragon: a scenario analysis of Chinese truck manufacturers conquering western markets

Authors: Michael Reichert

Addresses: Department for Business Administration and Marketing, Helmut-Schmidt University/University of the Federal Armed Forces, Holstenhofweg 85, 22043 Hamburg, Germany

Abstract: Performing a mixed-method analysis to generate a set of potential scenarios for Chinese truck manufacturing companies entering developed markets, this paper generates a holistic picture of the same. Main findings include that especially governmental support by the Chinese authorities and learnings from past exporting efforts in emerging markets have a substantial influence on future globalisation of Chinese truck OEMs towards developed economies. Building up on a selection of theses, four scenarios have been composed. Methodology-wise, this paper suggests a new way of selecting the scenario-relevant theses based on the evaluation through an expert panel. The theses rated with the highest evaluation scores were used to form the scenarios. A further novelty of the method of this paper is the integration of desirability as an evaluation dimension in order to reduce the wishful thinking bias. The methodology is discussed elaborately to show its appropriateness for this and other futures research projects.

Keywords: emerging markets; internationalisation; China; scenario analysis; strategic planning; mixed-method analysis; globalisation; truck manufacturing; heavy vehicles; truck OEMs; government support; past experience; exports.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTMKT.2016.079727

International Journal of Technology Marketing, 2016 Vol.11 No.4, pp.453 - 471

Available online: 07 Oct 2016

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