Title: Assessment of risks and control conditions for some scenarios on unauthorised usage of nuclear materials

Authors: Sergey Victorovich Masterov; Nikita Konstantinovich Kalugin; Vasily Borisovich Glebov

Addresses: Joint-Stock Company NIAEP, Dmitrovskoe shosse 2, Moscow, 127434, Russia ' Science and Technology Centre for Nuclear and Radiation Safety, Malaya Krasnoselskaya 2/8, Moscow, 107140, Russia ' National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute), Kashirskoe shosse 31, Moscow, 115409, Russia

Abstract: Conditions of nuclear materials secure management inside the nuclear sites as well as outside the nuclear fuel cycle are analysed from the point of view of nuclear non-proliferation. Concepts of tolerable and broadly acceptable risks are considered and conditions of their existence are formulated. On the basis of the concepts, a possibility of creating metrics for uranium control at nuclear sites is demonstrated. A three-level metric for uranium control is introduced. Using the control metric and a developed pathway model, a case study on risk assessment with application of various control measures has been conducted.

Keywords: nuclear materials diversion; nuclear sites; uranium control quality; tolerable risk; broadly acceptable risks; damage; detection probability; unauthorised actions; uranium enrichment; risk assessment; unauthorised usage; nuclear security; nuclear non-proliferation; security management; nuclear power plants; nuclear energy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2016.079618

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2016 Vol.19 No.4, pp.346 - 361

Available online: 27 Sep 2016 *

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