Title: Practical implementation of scenario generation-based risk analysis of electrical grids investment projects

Authors: Maria Inês R.F. Verdelho; Pedro M.S. Carvalho; João J.E. Santana; Luís A.F.M. Ferreira

Addresses: Department of Electrical Engineering and Computers, Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001, Lisbon, Portugal ' Department of Electrical Engineering and Computers, Instituto Superior Técnico and INESC-Id, University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001, Lisbon, Portugal ' Department of Electrical Engineering and Computers, Instituto Superior Técnico and INESC-Id, University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001, Lisbon, Portugal ' Department of Electrical Engineering and Computers, Instituto Superior Técnico and INESC-Id, University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001, Lisbon, Portugal

Abstract: This paper proposes a risk analysis methodology to complement the traditional economical evaluation of investment projects in electrical grids. The methodology is meant to quantify the risk of projects at a given confidence level with minimum additional effort from the planning engineer. This requires a specific scenario generation approach to represent the main uncertainty drivers of risk and a sensible mapping of the represented uncertainty into suitable risk measures. In this paper we present the state-of-the-art methods used for scenario generation and risk assessment, apply such methods to the electrical grid investment context, and finally propose changes to such methods in order to make them practical enough to be implemented as part of the project evaluation process carried out in a daily basis by planning engineers.

Keywords: distribution systems; electrical grids; investment projects; risk assessment; scenario generation; value at risk; VaR; risk quantification; uncertainty; project evaluation; project planning.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2016.079617

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2016 Vol.19 No.4, pp.331 - 345

Available online: 27 Sep 2016 *

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