Title: An agent-based prediction market: a case study of xFuture in Taiwan

Authors: Bin-Tzong Chie; Chi-Ling Pai

Addresses: Department of Industrial Economics, Tamkang University, No. 151, Yingzhuan Rd., Tamsui Dist., New Taipei City 25137, Taiwan ' Department of Industrial Economics, Tamkang University, No. 151, Yingzhuan Rd., Tamsui Dist., New Taipei City 25137, Taiwan

Abstract: This study adopted an agent-based modelling approach to investigate results of the world's leading Chinese prediction market, xFuture; in particular, Taiwan's 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. Real transaction results of xFuture were used as the base model. We employed double auction mechanism and Schelling's segregation model, and attempted to reconstruct the networking structures of the prediction market in 2008 and 2012. Purpose of this study is to discuss whether networking structures have any deterministic influence on how individual and hence joint belief distribution of participants could be formed. It is found that certain belief distribution properties, including shape, spread and location, could be critical factors for market efficiency/inefficiency. Our analysis suggested that in 2012 xFuture participants' belief distributions for the main candidates were associated with high kurtosis, small variance and approximate means. In other words, it might have a higher probability to deviate from the true outcome.

Keywords: prediction markets; ABM; agent-based modelling; segregation model; double auction; social networks; belief distribution; agent-based systems; multi-agent systems; MAS; case study; xFuture; Taiwan; networking structures; market efficiency; market inefficiency; kurtosis; small variance; approximate means.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2016.079533

International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, 2016 Vol.6 No.4, pp.390 - 412

Received: 08 Apr 2015
Accepted: 06 Nov 2015
Published online: 30 Sep 2016 *

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