Title: Studying pension systems and retirement age: a simple system dynamics model for a complex issue

Authors: Georgios Tsaples; Stefano Armenia

Addresses: Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering, 'Antonio Ruberti', Sapienza University of Rome, Italy ' Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering, 'Antonio Ruberti', Sapienza University of Rome, Italy

Abstract: One of the most challenging issues that policy makers will face in the near future is population ageing and its consequences in pension systems. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the effect of the increase in the retirement age on the pension scheme of Greece, by also taking into account social unrest that can inhibit the policy implementation. A model of Greece's pension scheme was modelled, using the methodology of system dynamics. The results showed that the increase in retirement age is not as effective as regarded in real world and under appropriate conditions, the pension scheme could be sustainable without raising the retirement age.

Keywords: system dynamics; pension systems; social security; population ageing; policy modelling; retirement age; simulation; scenario modelling; pensions; Greece; social unrest; policy implementation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJASS.2016.079095

International Journal of Applied Systemic Studies, 2016 Vol.6 No.3, pp.258 - 270

Received: 01 Jul 2015
Accepted: 13 Apr 2016

Published online: 12 Sep 2016 *

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